General

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the total value of China US trade in the first five months was 1.89 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, which was far inferior to the overall performance of China's foreign trade growth of 4.7% in the same period. Among them, China's exports to the United States were 1.38 trillion yuan, down 8.5% year on year.

There are many reasons for the decline in the volume of trade between China and the United States. Zhang Xiaotao, Dean of the school of international economics and trade at the Central University of Finance and economics, said in an interview with China news agency that the current decline in Sino US trade, especially the decline in China's exports to the United States, is a normal phenomenon under the background of the adjustment of the global industrial division of labor and the acceleration of regional economic integration. This shows that China's dependence on traditional export markets such as the United States and Europe is decreasing, and the market pattern is becoming increasingly diversified, which does not mean that China US economic and trade relations are "decoupling".

Recently, Tesla CEO musk and other senior executives from a number of US companies have visited China intensively, which shows that the "decoupling" of China US economic and trade is a false proposition.

In the words of former chief economist of the office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), although the U.S. policy of imposing tariffs on China has an impact on bilateral trade, the behavior of consumers and enterprises is more influential than political decisions.

However, some analysts cautioned that although the decline of Sino US trade volume does not mean that the two countries' economic and trade "decoupling", some deep-seated problems behind it should not be ignored.

Cuixiaomin, an associate researcher at the Institute of world economics and politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote that the steady recovery of Sino US bilateral trade in 2022 was mainly driven by strong domestic demand and price factors in the United States. Last year, exports from NAFTA members, ASEAN, the European Union and other trading partners to the United States increased significantly, faster than China's exports to the United States.

Cuixiaomin said that China's share of the total U.S. trade in goods fell from 14.8% in 2020 to 12.9% in 2022, while the shares of Canada and Mexico steadily increased over the same period, with Canada rising from 13.9% to 14.8%. On the US import side, China's share is also declining, accounting for 16.4% in 2022, down 5% from 21.4% in 2017. To some extent, this reflects the decline of the relative competitiveness of Chinese products in the United States.

It is worth noting that Chinese foreign trade enterprises have been actively promoting product transformation and upgrading. The "new three kinds" of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells are becoming an important support for China's exports.

Zhang Xiaotao believes that in addition to enterprises' strengthening market development and product research and development, China should also continue to improve the business environment, strive for all possible cooperation opportunities, and strive for time and space for the transformation and upgrading of domestic industries. In the long run, the prospect of Sino US trade is still "cautiously optimistic".