General

In the first five months of this year, the global economic recovery was weak, and the pressure to stabilize foreign trade remained prominent. Faced with difficulties and challenges, China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience and achieved a smooth start. The hard-earned 'stable opening' has laid a solid foundation for achieving the goal of promoting stability and improving quality throughout the year. According to customs data, China's foreign trade has been stable and improving in the first five months. It presents characteristics such as achieving a stable opening of doors for imports and exports, increasing the proportion of general trade, rapid growth in imports and exports to emerging markets, and further consolidating the position of private enterprises as the main force.

Customs data shows that in the first five months, the total import and export volume of goods reached 16.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%. The import and export of general trade reached 11.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.0%, accounting for 65.6% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Import and export to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, reached 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 15.4% of the total import and export volume. Customs data shows that imports and exports to Latin America and Africa increased by 10.7% and 16.4%, respectively. The import and export of private enterprises reached 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1%, accounting for 52.8% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 3.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

From different regions, industries, and categories, the import and export of the central and western regions are better than the overall situation. Customs data shows that in the first five months, the import and export of the central and western regions reached 3.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate, accounting for 18.2% of the total import and export volume in China, and contributing 27.0% to the overall import and export growth. The export of electromechanical products and labor-intensive products has maintained growth. Customs data shows that in the first five months, the export of mechanical and electrical products reached 5.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5%, accounting for 57.9% of the total export volume. The total exports of seven labor-intensive products amounted to 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, accounting for 17.2% of the total exports. Some bulk commodity imports have grown rapidly.

Despite achieving hard-earned growth, it is also important to note that the external environment for foreign trade development is becoming more complex and severe.

On the one hand, the global economic recovery is weak. The International Monetary Fund released the World Economic Outlook Report in April. It is estimated that the global economy will grow by 2.8% in 2023, lower than the 3.4% growth rate in 2022, and the growth rate will remain around 3% in the next five years, lower than the average level of 3.8% in the past 20 years.

On the other hand, global inflation remains high. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the overall global inflation rate will fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023, and the decline of core inflation will take longer. Most countries' price increases will remain above the central bank's target level until 2025.

In addition, the fragility of the international financial market has increased. In the environment of years of low interest rates, limited volatility, and sufficient liquidity, financial fragility has increased in some areas, and significant interest rate hikes by multiple central banks have exacerbated the pressure on the financial sector, hindering economic recovery.

Overall, China's economy has strong resilience, great potential, and abundant vitality. The long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, and high-level opening up to the outside world continues to advance. The driving force for foreign trade innovation continues to strengthen, and the policy of stabilizing foreign trade is strong and effective. The achievement of the goal of promoting stability and improving quality in foreign trade throughout the year provides important support. In April of this year, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Stable Scale and Optimal Structure of Foreign Trade", proposing 18 policy measures from five aspects, and the combination of stable foreign trade policies continues to show its effectiveness. It can be foreseen that through the joint efforts of all parties, we are confident in achieving the goal of promoting stability and improving quality in foreign trade throughout the year.