General

The latest report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that in the first quarter of this year, global trade recovered strongly, and the volume of trade not only increased significantly compared with the same period last year, but also higher than the level of the same period in 2019. According to expert analysis, global trade will continue to recover steadily thanks to factors such as stimulus policies in major economies and strong demand for anti-epidemic-related products. In particular, China's import and export trade has shown resilience during the epidemic prevention and control period and has become an important engine for the stable development of global trade.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development recently released the latest issue of the Global Trade Update Report, showing that in the first quarter of this year, global trade in goods and services increased by 4% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year. Among them, trade in goods grew strongly, and trade in services was still lower than the epidemic. Before the level. The report predicts that global trade in the second quarter will reach 6.6 trillion U.S. dollars, 31% higher than last year's low, and global trade will increase by 16% year-on-year. Experts believe that global trade will continue to grow steadily this year, but it faces some uncertainties.

Overall trade performance is stronger than expected

Alessandro Nichita, a UNCTAD economist who participated in the drafting of the report, said that in the fourth quarter of last year, global trade basically reached the level before the epidemic. In the first quarter of this year, global trade increased by 3% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. %.

Specifically, trade in major global economies will begin to recover in the fall of 2020. However, affected by the epidemic, last year's trade volume base was low, and global trade recovered relatively quickly, but the trade volume of some major economies is still lower than the level of 2019. The trade performance of China, India and South Africa in the first quarter of 2021 was relatively better than that of other major economies.

From a regional perspective, most economies have seen increases in trade imports, but exports are mainly driven by East Asia, highlighting the important role of East Asia in global trade. The trade growth rate of developing countries has exceeded that of developed countries, especially South-South trade has grown faster. In the first quarter of this year, the import and export of developing countries increased by 18% and 22% respectively year-on-year, and the import and export of developed countries increased by 12% and 7% year-on-year. South-South trade increased by 20% year-on-year and 17% from the first quarter of 2019.

In terms of product categories, demand for mineral products, office equipment, communication equipment, etc. continued to rebound, increasing by 42%, 38%, and 37% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter. The trade volume of these products also increased relatively higher than the first quarter of 2019. In addition, trade in machinery and equipment, clothing, and medical products has also grown rapidly.

In many countries, due to the implementation of the home isolation policy, employees work from home, students take classes remotely, and electronic products such as laptops are selling hotly. In Europe, public transportation is restricted, demand for short-distance travel has increased, and bicycle sales have doubled.

Multiple factors help trade rebound

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development believes that the continued growth of global trade depends on the reduction of trade restrictions, commodity prices are showing a positive trend, and macroeconomic and financial support maintains a certain degree of strength. However, global trade still faces some uncertainties. For some time to come, the trend of unbalanced global trade recovery will continue. The trade growth of East Asia and developing countries will remain strong, and the trade of some countries will lag behind the global average.

Oscar Guinea, a senior economist at the European Center for International Political Economy Research, told our reporter that there are many reasons for the positive recovery of global trade. First, the world’s major economies have gradually embarked on a recovery track, driving a strong recovery in global trade; secondly, the global supply chain and value chain as a whole have withstood the test of the epidemic, and the support for the current and post-epidemic countries’ trade exchanges has become more obvious; finally, the epidemic prevention During the control period, the global demand for anti-epidemic materials continued to increase, and the demand for electronic products, home and office supplies, etc. was strong.

The International Monetary Fund believes that the financial support of major economies and accelerated vaccination will help promote the recovery of the world economy. Since the second half of last year, the consumption of durable goods in developed countries has rebounded, the supply chains of emerging market countries have recovered, and international trade has continued to recover.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development pointed out that the epidemic has brought uncertainty to the global value chain, prompting the scale of some sub-links to decrease, and the production link is closer to the consumer market. In addition, political factors and challenges to international multilateral trading mechanisms may also become risks that restrict trade growth.

China continues to be the source of global growth

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development believes that the overall performance of global trade in 2020 is relatively good, showing resilience, mainly due to the East Asian economies, especially China, taking the lead in controlling the epidemic, quickly resuming work and production, and meeting the huge global demand for anti-epidemic supplies. The trade performance of East Asia is expected to continue to improve. In 2020, China's share in global trade will further increase. In 2021, China will continue to be a major source of global growth, and countries with close trade relations with China will also benefit from it.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first four months of this year, the total value of China's import and export of goods was 11.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.5% over the same period last year. As China's top four trading partners, the total trade volume between ASEAN, the European Union, the United States and Japan and China increased by 27.6%, 32.1%, 50.3% and 16.2% respectively. During the same period, China's total imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” increased by 24.8%.

The demand from China provides a lot of opportunities for ASEAN countries. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China's total imports and exports to Thailand in the first quarter of this year increased by 28.7% year-on-year, and bilateral trade between China and Thailand showed a rapid growth trend. Cai Weicai, senior vice president of Thai Bank of Thailand, said that the strong performance of China's import and export trade once again proves that the Chinese economy is a powerful driving force for the advancement of the world economy and highlights China's important position in the global supply chain. The booming trade exchanges between Thailand and China and ASEAN and China will further promote regional economic recovery.

The latest data released by the UK National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2021, China surpassed Germany to become the UK's largest source of imports. Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the UK's demand for epidemic prevention products and electronic products has increased, which has boosted the growth of UK's import trade from China. In 2020, China will surpass the United States for the first time and become the EU's largest trading partner. Among the top ten trading partners of the EU in goods, China is the only country that has achieved two-way trade growth.

Nikita and Carlos Lazo, economists of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, pointed out that China’s export trade has shown strong resilience and its importance to global production continues to increase. The epidemic has further highlighted China's important role in global trade, and its strong resilience has quickly restored China's exports.