General

The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries has "turned in reverse" and has continued to deteriorate in the past week.

In the past week, Vietnam added 515 new crown cases in the highest single day, breaking the country's single-day record of confirmed cases. Indonesia's highest single-day new confirmed cases of new crowns were 12,906, a new high this year. The number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Malaysia rose to 696,408, and the number of deaths in the Philippines rose to 23,621.

As an important part of the global industrial chain and supply chain, the rebound of the epidemic in Southeast Asia is inevitably aggravating the risk of rupture of the global industrial chain and supply chain.

Blockade of major semiconductor towns, triggering global "chip" panic

Take, for example, chips that are currently in short supply globally.

Southeast Asia accounts for 27% of the global semiconductor chip packaging and testing market; Malaysia alone accounts for 13%. Nearly 50 industry giants including AMD, NXP, STMicroelectronics, and Intel are in Malaysia There are businesses.

Not long ago, Malaysia adopted measures to "close the country" due to the epidemic prevention and control. At present, a large number of front-line production workers have been forced to suspend work for isolation. Manufacturers of semiconductor suppliers such as Murata and Renesas Electronics have had to stop production during this round of the epidemic.

In view of Malaysia's important position in the global semiconductor industry chain, many people worry that Malaysia's "closed country" will further compress the supply expectations of chips and passive components, leading to price increases in related industry chains.

It's not just Malaysia. Vietnam, which was previously known as a "model student in the fight against the epidemic," also failed to escape the huge impact of this round of the epidemic.

The provinces of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh that have been hit the most by this round of the epidemic are the northern industrial provinces of Vietnam, where the semiconductor industry is intensive. There are hundreds of semiconductor-related factories embedded in the global supply chain, including Foxconn and Samsung Electronics manufacturers.

Bac Giang Province announced the closure of four industrial parks on May 18. Bac Ninh Province imposed a curfew on May 28, and some factories had to be closed. Observers believe that if Vietnam's epidemic prevention and control measures continue for a longer period of time, or even implement a complete blockade, it is likely to cause a new round of shortages and price increases, and the global electronics industry chain will inevitably be affected.

In fact, 169 industries, including automobiles and steel products, have been affected by the shortage of chips. Flextronics, headquartered in Singapore, is the world's second largest electronics foundry company, providing electronic products for Ford, Dyson, Hewlett-Packard and other companies. Inadequate supply of Flextronics due to chip shortages has already caused related automakers to significantly reduce their production scale, and some employees once went on vacation. Some companies are starting to find another way out, and Tesla is even starting to consider directly acquiring a chip factory.

Will the global supply chain move back to China?

Since last year, due to the rapid stability of my country’s epidemic and economic recovery, it has accepted orders from many global industry suppliers, such as textiles and small household appliances. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Southeast Asia this year, my country’s manufacturing industry has continued to expand and extend.

Data show that my country's PMI in May was 51%, continuing a steady expansion trend. Among them, the high-tech manufacturing PMI reached 55.2%, rising for three consecutive months, setting a new high during the year, and the high-tech and strategic emerging industry markets are very active.

Objectively speaking, for global capital, the relocation of the supply chain back to China is undoubtedly the best policy.

There are two reasons: On the one hand, China is one of the countries with a complete industrial chain in the world, and the advantages of industrial chain clusters are irreplaceable in a short time; on the other hand, China has been fully controllable in terms of the epidemic, and its performance in resuming work and production is far superior. In other countries, after this war, global capital is bound to re-examine China, and it is very likely that the supply chain will return to China.

From the perspective of the industry, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic semiconductors is still low. However, in the short term, orders are abundant. In the long term, benefiting from the expansion of manufacturing capacity and the acceleration of domestic substitution, the semiconductor equipment material sector has a large room for growth. The next 5 years The expansion trend is clear.

Although the industrial chain does not mean that transfer is transferred, the current transfer trend is already obvious. With the acceleration of financing and production expansion in the local semiconductor manufacturing sector, my country's equipment and materials sector also ushered in opportunities.

What needs to be reminded is that in the face of the global changes in the semiconductor industry and our shortcomings in development, an independent and controllable semiconductor chip industry chain and supply chain system should be established in China to complement the key shortcomings of the industry chain and enhance the resilience of the industry chain. Responding to risks in the global supply chain.

On the road to promote the localization of high-end semiconductor chips, the road ahead is long, and the road is long. Only by unremitting exploration and continuous innovation can we be prepared and prepared!

In addition, although the short-term industrial transfer has brought new explosive opportunities for my country’s manufacturing industry, from the perspective of long-term development, it is only a matter of time before the labor-intensive manufacturing industry moves out. China’s manufacturing will eventually be concentrated in mid-to-high-end manufacturing in the future. Development.