General

The epidemic has not disappeared, but major cities in India have begun to unblock them.

According to Reuters, in New Delhi, one of the most severely affected areas in India, the Indian government has allowed the full reopening of shops and shopping malls, and allowed 50% of the seats in restaurants, and the suburban railway has also allowed the restoration of 50% of passenger capacity. , The office was partially reopened.

After the ban was unblocked, the police who had been working on the streets for nearly a year to maintain the order of the ban also went home on holiday.

Statistics show that 20,000 people swarmed into a shopping mall in the first week of lifting the ban, and all aisles and halls were surrounded by water. In Bangalore, the capital of Karnataka, crowds gathered at the railway station, and the same grand scene as before the epidemic can be seen in the photos.

The same is true for residents in other places. Many people do not wander around in the street wearing masks or wear masks under their noses. Without police restraint, these people became very active, and people seemed to ignore social distancing...

Perhaps the government did not expect this kind of grand occasion to occur on the first day of the lifting of martial law, because according to the experience of other countries, people were generally worried about their safety when the epidemic was just lifted, and they were slowly increasing; but Indians seem to be born. There is no fear of this virus, just the police who maintain order.

The vaccination work in India was stalled for a while. The New Delhi municipal government in India stated that the vaccination center for people aged 18-44 was closed on Tuesday.

Currently, only about 5% of the 950 million people eligible for vaccination in India have been vaccinated. Most people cannot resist the virus. At this time, Delhi enters a state of unblocking ahead of schedule, which is bound to resurrect!

According to satellite news, Randip Guleria, director of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, believes that the third wave of the new crown epidemic in India may begin in 6 to 8 weeks.

Guleria pointed out that people no longer wear masks and maintain social distancing after many states in India began to lift restrictions imposed by the increase in the number of new coronavirus infections. He said: "As India begins to lift the blockade, we can once again see the lack of response to the new crown epidemic. It seems that we have not learned the lessons from the first and second waves of the epidemic."

Guleria added that the new coronavirus variant "Delta", the new coronavirus variant found in India for the first time, has become more contagious and spread faster.

In the first two months, thousands of people died from the new crown in New Delhi, India. Hospitals were hard to find, crematoriums were in desperate need, medical oxygen was in short supply, and people burned corpses in the open... The tragic situation of the medical system on the verge of collapse is still vivid.

Sumia Swaminathan, chief scientist of the Indian World Health Organization, also warned that India’s national COVID-19 test positive rate has reached 20%. The extremely high positive rate indicates that India’s testing capacity is still insufficient. The actual situation may be It's worse.

Regarding the unblocking, Ambrish Mittal, a doctor at the Max Healthcare Hospital in New Delhi, left a message on the Internet and asked doubtfully: "Are we completely crazy? Are we waiting for the new crown epidemic to break out again, and then blame the government, hospitals, The country is not effective in fighting the epidemic?"

His doubts also exist in the eyes of health departments and experts at all levels. Karnataka medical expert Jakna analyzed that the Indians only regarded the fight against the virus as a fight against the government, and they believed that the government announced the lifting of the ban. Victory, as everyone knows that the danger is still not over, this kind of behavior is bound to bring a new wave of virus fever.

While the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has escalated, the haze has not disappeared.

In the past week, Vietnam added 515 new crown cases in the highest single day, breaking the country's single-day record of confirmed cases.

Indonesia's highest single-day new confirmed cases of new crowns were 12,906, a new high this year. The number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Malaysia rose to 696,408, and the number of deaths in the Philippines rose to 23,621.

As an important part of the global industrial chain and supply chain, the rebound of the epidemic in Southeast Asia is inevitably aggravating the risk of rupture of the global industrial chain and supply chain.

01. The blockade of major semiconductor towns caused global "chip" panic

Take, for example, chips that are in short supply globally:

Southeast Asia accounts for 27% of the global semiconductor chip packaging and testing market; Malaysia alone accounts for 13%. Nearly 50 industry giants including AMD, NXP, STMicroelectronics, and Intel are in Malaysia There are businesses.

Not long ago, Malaysia adopted measures to "close the country" due to the epidemic prevention and control. At present, a large number of front-line production workers have been forced to suspend work for isolation. Manufacturers of semiconductor suppliers such as Murata and Renesas Electronics have had to stop production during this round of the epidemic.

Due to Malaysia’s important position in the global semiconductor industry chain, many people worry that Malaysia’s “closed country” will further compress the supply expectations of chips and passive components, leading to price increases in the relevant industry chain.

Not only Malaysia, but Vietnam, which was previously hailed as a "model student in the fight against the epidemic," also failed to escape the huge impact of this round of the epidemic.

The provinces of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh that have been hit the most by this round of the epidemic are the northern industrial provinces of Vietnam, where the semiconductor industry is intensive. There are hundreds of semiconductor-related factories embedded in the global supply chain, including Foxconn and Samsung Electronics manufacturers.

Bac Giang Province announced the closure of four industrial parks on May 18. Bac Ninh Province imposed a curfew on May 28, and some factories had to be closed. If Vietnam's epidemic prevention and control measures continue for a longer period of time, or a complete blockade will be implemented, it is likely to lead to a new round of shortages and price increases, and the global electronics industry chain will inevitably be affected.

In fact, 169 industries, including automobiles and steel products, have been affected by the shortage of chips. Flextronics, headquartered in Singapore, is the world's second largest electronics foundry company, providing electronic products for Ford, Dyson, Hewlett-Packard and other companies.

Inadequate supply of Flextronics due to chip shortages has already caused related automakers to significantly reduce their production scale, and some employees once went on vacation. Some companies are starting to find another way out, and Tesla is even starting to consider directly acquiring a chip factory.

02. Will the global supply chain move back to China?

Since last year, due to the rapid stability of my country’s epidemic and economic recovery, it has accepted orders from many global industry suppliers, such as textiles and small household appliances. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Southeast Asia this year, my country’s manufacturing industry has continued to expand and extend.

Data show that my country's PMI in May was 51%, continuing a steady expansion trend. Among them, the high-tech manufacturing PMI reached 55.2%, rising for three consecutive months, setting a new high during the year, and the high-tech and strategic emerging industry markets are very active.

Objectively speaking, for global capital, the relocation of the supply chain back to China is undoubtedly the best policy.

On the one hand, China is one of the countries with a complete industrial chain in the world, and the advantages of industrial chain clusters are irreplaceable in a short time;

On the other hand, China is fully controllable in terms of the epidemic, and its performance in resuming work and production is far better than other countries. After this battle, global capital will inevitably re-examine China, and the supply chain is highly likely to return to China;

From the perspective of the industry, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic semiconductors is still low. However, in the short term, orders are abundant. In the long term, benefiting from the expansion of manufacturing capacity and the acceleration of domestic substitution, the semiconductor equipment material sector has a large room for growth. In the next 5 years The expansion trend is clear.

Although the industrial chain does not mean that transfer is transferred, the current transfer trend is already obvious. With the acceleration of financing and production expansion in the local semiconductor manufacturing sector, China's equipment and materials sector also ushered in opportunities.

Faced with the global changes and development shortcomings of the semiconductor industry, an independent and controllable semiconductor chip industry chain and supply chain system should be established in China to complement the key shortcomings of the industry chain and enhance the resilience of the industry chain to cope with global supply chain risks.

On the road to promote the localization of high-end semiconductor chips, the road ahead is long, and the road is long. Only by unremitting exploration and continuous innovation can we be prepared and prepared!

In addition, although the short-term industrial transfer has brought new explosive opportunities for my country’s manufacturing industry, from the perspective of long-term development, it is only a matter of time before the labor-intensive manufacturing industry moves out. China’s manufacturing will eventually be concentrated in mid-to-high-end manufacturing in the future. Development.