General

The Forecasting Science Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has been predicting and analyzing the container throughput of the top 20 ports in the world and its ranking for many years, reflecting the overall development of world trade and the development of trade in different regions to a certain extent.

The reporter recently learned from Xie Gang, a professor of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Forecast Scientific Research Center and a member of the World Port Forecast Research Group, that the "2021 Global Top 20 Container Port Forecast Report" has been completed in stages. The current research shows that most of the world’s ports have recovered to At the level before the epidemic, the new crown pneumonia epidemic will also bring uncertain short-term impact to some ports, but the impact will be small.

The report at this stage shows that among the world's top 20 container ports, China accounts for 9 and 7 of them are among the top 10. The top 10 ports in order of ranking are Shanghai Port, Singapore Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port, Shenzhen Port, Guangzhou Port, Qingdao Port, Busan Port, Tianjin Port, Hong Kong Port, Rotterdam Port. In addition, Xiamen Port ranked 14th and Kaohsiung Port ranked 16th.

Shanghai Port is expected to have a container throughput of 4560 to 46 million TEUs (standard containers) in 2021, which is far ahead and maintains a relatively rapid growth rate. It is expected to increase by 4.8% to 5.7% year-on-year. In the future, Shanghai Port will maintain its top ranking for a long time. The second-ranked Port of Singapore is expected to have a container throughput of 38 million to 38.3 million TEU in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% to ~3.9%.

As China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and quickly resuming work and production, it played a role in boosting the recovery of the container transportation industry in 2021. Compared with 2020, the growth rate of China's port container throughput has increased to a greater extent. In addition, the demand for container transportation services in most ports in China will increase in 2021. Among them, Ningbo Zhoushan, Shenzhen and Tianjin ports have increased significantly. Container throughput in 2021 is expected to increase by 8.2% to 10.0%, 9.3% to 11.2%, and 9.3% to 11.2% respectively. 9.0% to 10.6%. According to the calculation results of the model, the development of China's container transportation is still the center of gravity and foundation for the stable development of the world.

The reporter noted that the world's top 20 container ports are concentrated in East Asia, Europe and North America. In West Asia, only Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port in the UAE ranks 11th. South America, Africa and Oceania are not listed ports.

The report at this stage also shows that, based on regional analysis, with the exception of Asia's Kaohsiung Port maintaining negative growth, most of the world's port container throughput will show a recovery upward trend.

On the whole, it is expected that the world’s top 20 container ports in 2021 will not change much from 2020. The specific changes in the port ranking are as follows: The Port of Los Angeles in the United States will surpass the Port of Kaohsiung in China, ranking 16th in the world, and the Port of Kaohsiung will retreat 17th; The Port of Long Beach in the United States will surpass the Port of Hamburg in Germany, ranking 18th in the world, and the Port of Hamburg will retreat to the 19th place.