General

Customs data can interpret industry trends, and foreign trade import and export businesses need to follow the evolutionary laws of the economic environment.

According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 142,400 yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points compared with the previous five months. Among them, exports were 7.71 trillion yuan, down 3%; imports were 6.53 trillion yuan, down 3.3%. The spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs stated at a press conference that although my country's foreign trade imports and exports fell by 3.2% in the first half of the year, the rate of decline was significantly narrower than the first quarter by 3.3 percentage points. Among them, in June, imports and exports achieved positive growth for the first time in the year, and the overall performance of foreign trade imports and exports in the first half of the year was better than expected. "

In US dollars, China’s exports in June increased by 32.2% year-on-year, the market expected an increase of 21.4%, the previous value increased by 27.9%, the import increased by 36.7% year-on-year, the market is expected to increase by 26.2%, and the previous value increased by 51.1%; the trade surplus was 51.53 billion US dollars. This is an increase of US$6 billion from the previous month.

The analysis pointed out that the reasons supporting the recent export resilience are the following:

(1) The export of mechanical and electrical products maintained a high growth rate. Mechanical and electrical products accounted for a large proportion of the export value. Among them, the export of mobile phones only fell slightly from the previous month, and the growth rate of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment even increased significantly, which is to promote the maintenance of high export growth. Main force

(2) The export of labor-intensive goods is still strong. Considering that the export of labor-intensive goods has changed a lot in June last year, to calculate the two-year average year-on-year excluding the influence of the base number, the results show that the year-on-year growth rate of luggage and toys has not changed much from the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate of textile products and clothing has even further increased, and my country’s labor-intensive exports have not been affected by the disappearance of the obvious "substitution effect"

(3) The post-cyclical demand for real estate is still strong, and the export of home appliances is relatively strong. The export products of the later real estate chain such as home appliances, furniture and lamps still maintain rapid growth, and the impact of base rise is limited, indicating strong external demand

(4) Demand in developed regions is not weak, and exports to the EU have rebounded significantly

The demand gap in overseas markets may change in the second half of this year. Foreign traders need to make predictions and set reasonable target decisions based on the specific economic environment and industry trends.