General

In August, the cumulative number of people infected with the new crown virus worldwide reached 200 million, and the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has deteriorated again.

According to the weekly data of the World Health Organization (WHO), from the end of June to mid-July, the number of confirmed new crown cases in Europe has increased by more than 30% every week. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said this week that the seven-day average number of new coronavirus cases in the United States exceeded the peak last summer, but the country had not yet launched a large-scale promotion. Vaccination.

The spread of the "Delta" strain of the new crown mutant virus catalyzed the epidemic. The President of the National Institutes of Health (Francis Collins) emphasized that unvaccinated people are three times more likely to be infected, eight times more likely to develop symptoms after infection, and more likely to be hospitalized due to the new crown 25 Times.

But for ordinary people, long-term social restrictions have made people feel tired.

"After staying at home for more than a year, several of our colleagues finally held a project meeting face to face, and we had a meal together after the meeting." Zhang Yu (pseudonym), who works in Berlin, Germany, told CBN reporters, "Now there are many on the street. People don’t wear masks anymore. Even if it is stated to wear masks in some gathering activities, no one will care if they don’t wear them."

"I am skeptical about whether the American public will accept another blockade. I think we may see a lot of disobedience in this regard. The key question is whether the business will continue to operate or whether the government will try to enforce the blockade. "Michael, who lives in California, told the CBN reporter.

The U.S. hardest hit area refuses to implement strict epidemic prevention measures?

According to data compiled by the CDC, as of August 3, local time, the average number of new cases per day in the United States within seven days was 84,389, and last summer's peak value was about 68,700 new cases per day.

Varensky revealed that the average number of admissions in the seven days last week was about 6,200 people per day, an increase of about 41% over the previous seven-day period. The seven-day average daily death toll has also risen to 300 per day, an increase of more than 25%, but it is still far below the peak of more than 1,100 per day at the beginning of August 2020.

Some experts believe that since 80% of the elderly have completed vaccination, the current increase in hospitalized cases and deaths in the United States is much lower than in previous waves.

"Although we are eager to end this pandemic, the epidemic is clearly not over, and our fight must last longer." Varensky said at a briefing held at the White House.

According to US media reports, the highly contagious "Delta" strain has contributed to a wave of infections, especially in areas with low vaccination rates in the United States. Jeff Zients, a White House adviser and coordinator for the response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, said that last week, one out of every three new crown cases occurred in Florida and Texas. He added that about 17% of the cases came from seven states with low vaccination rates.

However, Florida and Texas, two Republican-led states, are very resistant to the epidemic. On August 3, local time, U.S. President Biden urged Republican leaders in Florida and Texas to follow the public health guidelines on the epidemic, otherwise they would "do not get in the way."

CDC data shows that as of August 3, 57.9% of the US population had at least one dose of the vaccine, and the proportion of the fully vaccinated population was 49.7%. The proportion of American adults who received at least one dose or completed all the vaccinations was 70.1% and 60.6%, respectively. This progress is about a month later than Biden's original goal.

European countries racked their brains to promote vaccines

At the end of July, Italy announced that when people go to the movies or eat indoors, they need to show their new coronavirus health passports, which has led to a surge in the country's daily vaccination appointments.

In addition to Italy, some regions such as France, Greece, Austria, Ireland and Spain have also begun to require people to show their new crown passports when entering restaurants, gyms, cinemas and other places where people gather. The United Kingdom also subsequently stated that starting from September, if you want to enter bars and other crowded places, people need to use a health certificate as a proof.

This kind of health certificate does not compulsory vaccination, and people can also choose to show an antibody certificate or a recent negative test for the new coronavirus. However, the latter requires a time limit, which is obviously more troublesome. In Italy, this means that an unvaccinated person needs to be tested every two days to enter the gym every day.

In a waiting room in Rome, Italy, 19-year-old Federica Puccetti (Federica Puccetti) said that she still does not want to be vaccinated, but because she plans to travel to Sardinia, only vaccinations can be a normal vacation. "Otherwise, you can't do a lot of things." Puchetti said, "you will be marginalized if you don't get a vaccine."

Data from France and Italy show that near-mandatory regulations can promote a substantial increase in the number of vaccinations. After French President Macron announced the relevant new regulations, in early July, the country set a new record for the average daily vaccination within 7 days. In Italy, vaccination requests have soared from about 6,000 per day to an average of 34,000 appointments per day-the country is currently distributing vaccines at four times the rate of the United States.

According to data from OurWorldinData, a data website owned by the University of Oxford, as of August 3, nearly half of the EU population has been fully vaccinated.

However, the above-mentioned vaccination regulations are also facing strong opposition, and even some street protests have occurred as a result. According to foreign media reports, on August 1, local time, thousands of people gathered in Berlin to protest the German government's epidemic prevention measures and clashed with the police. About 600 protesters were detained.

In May of this year, Germany relaxed many social restrictions, such as reopening restaurants and bars. However, if you want to eat in a restaurant or stay in a hotel, you need to show proof that you have been vaccinated or have recovered from the new crown infection. This has triggered opposition from some right-wing and left-wing people.

Prior to this protest, other demonstrations against the new crown epidemic have also occurred across Europe. On July 31st, more than 200,000 people in France participated in protests against vaccination requirements for the third consecutive weekend, and sometimes clashed with the police. About 80,000 people also protested in various Italian cities.

Will the European and American economies be affected by the worsening of the epidemic?

In Europe, according to a survey conducted by the British media, business optimism has declined due to concerns that the spread of the more contagious "delta" strain will lead to more social restrictions. As the strain spread in Europe, the service industry business expectations index fell from 72.7 to a three-month low of 69.1.

Fabio Panetta, member of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank, believes that as some European countries reinforce epidemic prevention and control measures, it is not ruled out that the spread of the delta strain may hinder the recovery of the European economy.

The imbalance between supply and demand and rising international commodity prices have caused inflationary pressures in the Eurozone to rise rapidly. Eurostat data shows that the Eurozone inflation rate in July was 2.2% year-on-year, higher than June's 1.9%.

The first estimate released by the US Department of Commerce on July 29 showed that the actual gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States in the second quarter of this year grew at an annual rate of 6.5%, but it was lower than the 8.5% expected by the market. With the spread of the delta mutant strain, will the pace of economic recovery in the United States in the second half of the year be affected?

Investment consulting firm BCA Research believes that the new crown delta strain is indeed the main focus in the near future. The escalation of the threat of the epidemic and new restrictions will set back the economy, especially affecting the recovery of the service industry. "Before this risk subsides, investors should maintain a cautious stance in the short term. After that, we expect that within the scope of cyclical investment, consumption will continue to provide a support for the US economy."

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said that if the delta mutant strain has a major impact on GDP and employment, it means that companies will have to shut down again and people will need to go back to the lockdown, but this The probability of this occurrence is very small.

According to the "Normalization Index" created by Moody's Analytics, there is currently no indication that the "Delta" mutant strain is affecting real-time economic data, such as restaurant reservations, the number of people traveling by air, and first-time jobless claims across the United States. The number of gold and so on. However, in Florida and other states where the epidemic has been severely intensified, this index has been affected.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at the data company IHSMarkit, said: "Worries about new variants have become more common... in some cases activities have been suppressed, and the possibility of further tightening of restrictions on the virus has arisen. Sexual concerns. Therefore, the service sector growth in July was slightly lower than the previous preliminary estimates, and future expectations have also cooled, bringing huge downside risks to the outlook. At the same time, this implies that as time enters autumn, growth may start again Slow down."

For the Fed, the delta strain will significantly affect its focus on employment indicators.

Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, believes that the spread of delta may prompt some Americans to be reluctant to return to work, which may drag the United States' economic recovery. In an interview with CBS recently, Kashkari said that the United States has not yet reached a full recovery. He said that 7 to 9 million Americans are still unemployed today.

Fed Chairman Powell called out last week that he believes that the U.S. economy has "learned to deal with" the new crown virus and will not fall into a quagmire because of a new wave of epidemics or rising inflation.

nulltheless, in the coming weeks, as schools open, supply chains remain blocked, and unemployment subsidies decrease, the economy will be tested. Capital Economics chief North American economist Ashworth believes that delta is a drag on the economy, rising prices weaken household purchasing power, and the impact of fiscal stimulus is weakening. It is estimated that in the second half of this year, US economic growth may slow to only 3.5%.