General

This year’s No. 14 typhoon "Sandu" quickly strengthened from a severe tropical storm to a super typhoon on the night of the 7th. It was located on the ocean about 1160 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi, Taiwan Province, at 23:00 on the 8th. The maximum wind force nearby is 17 levels (58 m/s), the lowest central pressure is 925 hPa, the radius of the seventh wind circle is 150-270 kilometers, the radius of the tenth wind circle is 110 kilometers, and the radius of the twelfth wind circle is 60 kilometers.

It is expected that "Santo" will move westward and northwestward at a speed of about 15 kilometers per hour, with little change in intensity (before the afternoon of September 9, Santo will temporarily weaken; but then, with vertical wind cutting If the change weakens, Chandu may strengthen again), and gradually approach the coast of the southeastern part of Taiwan Province of my country, and may also pass through the Bashi Strait to approach the coast of my country’s Guangdong-Fujian area.

The rapid strengthening of Chandu will make its already westward path even more westward. According to current forecasts, Sundo is most likely to land on Taiwan first, and then land in Xiamen, Fujian after being greatly weakened by the Central Mountain Range.

Various agencies have relatively consistent predictions on the movement path of "Sando" in the next two days. It will first move to the west, and then gradually turn to the northwest to approach the eastern part of the Bashi Strait or the coastal waters of eastern Taiwan.

"Sandu" will arrive in the eastern part of the Bashi Strait or the coastal waters of eastern Taiwan in the daytime on the 10th. However, there are big differences in the results of the path prediction after the 11th. If the subtropical high is still strong and does not weaken its eastward retreat, then the "Sun Du" will continue to pass through the Bashi Strait or continue to move westward to South China after landing on the southern tip of Taiwan;

▲ GFS's aggregate analysis of the future movement path of "Sandu" If the subtropical high is suppressed by the cold air from the south and retreats eastward, then "Sandu" may turn to early north near Taiwan Island, first land in Taiwan, and then land in Fujian or Zhejiang; Otherwise, it will fly across Luzon Island and then land in Guangdong westward.

If Chandu just bypassed the Taiwan Island of my country and the high mountains of Luzon Island in the Philippines, and entered the South China Sea from the Bashi Strait, it might threaten Guangdong and Fujian with a strong typhoon or super typhoon; on the other hand, it would directly go north and land in Zhejiang. The possibility cannot be ruled out.

The typhoon is coming so fiercely, we are fully aware of the complexity of "Santo" and the possibility of bypassing the mountains and directly threatening the mainland of our country, and we should be prepared according to the latest situation before this weekend.

At present, it seems that Guangdong, Fujian, Taiwan, Zhejiang and other places need to be prepared for defense!