General

Entering the fourth quarter, the trend of foreign trade has attracted much attention. Industry insiders predict that due to factors such as a high base last year, my country's foreign trade growth rate may decline in the fourth quarter, but exports are expected to remain resilient and imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level.

Exports will be under pressure

Under the influence of various factors, the export growth rate in the fourth quarter faced certain downward pressure. In this regard, all parties in the market also have psychological expectations.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Kaiyuan Securities, said that the manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) new export order index has fallen for five consecutive months, and exports will face greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter.

According to Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of the Suning Institute of Finance, my country's exports have been mainly driven by external demand this year. However, the slowdown in short-term order delivery may lead to a decline in short-term export growth.

The latest research report of CICC shows that the overall export orders of foreign trade companies are full, but the structure is divided. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, exports may still maintain a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10% under a high base.

Multiple factors support import resilience

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that nearly 6% of dry bulk carriers are currently waiting for unloading near Chinese ports, which will support China's import resilience. In addition, the high commodity prices will push up the year-on-year data of import growth from a pricing perspective.

Factors such as a low base and increased domestic demand will also help the growth rate of the export to maintain a relatively high level. Tao Jin said that from the perspective of the base effect, given the relatively low base last year, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in the fourth quarter is expected to maintain a relatively high level. From the perspective of domestic industrial demand, the demand for substitution of foreign orders is relatively large. Due to the limited recovery speed of foreign supply, the room for increasing the scale of imports seems to be limited, but import prices may continue to rise, pushing up the growth of imports.

Li Yong, chief analyst of fixed income at Soochow Securities, said that short-term domestic demand is still supported, and import growth is expected to remain at a relatively high level.

Maintain steady growth in foreign trade

Zhong Zhengsheng said that exports and imports are expected to maintain resilience during the year. After excluding the influence of base factors and other factors, the two-year average growth rate will gradually decline, but will not drop significantly.

Liu Yingkui, director of the International Investment Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, believes that in terms of stabilizing foreign trade, relevant departments should issue targeted policies to solve the difficulties encountered in the operation of foreign trade enterprises. In response to rising ocean freight rates, transportation companies are encouraged to form enterprise alliances to negotiate with shipping companies. Expand the production and supply of containers. Through training and supporting policies, problems such as the shortage of corporate talents, rising labor costs, and financing have been resolved. Strengthen the construction of industry associations, and beware of competition among foreign trade companies to cut prices. Encourage foreign trade enterprises to strengthen innovation, strengthen independent brand building through technological innovation, management innovation, etc., and promote high-quality development of enterprises.