General

On October 21, local time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the "Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook" report. The report shows that the African economy will slowly recover in 2021 and 2022, but the recovery speed will lag behind the rest of the world. The report believes that the low rate of new crown vaccination is the main reason for the slow economic recovery in Africa.

u3000u3000 The International Monetary Fund predicts that the economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa will reach 3.7% and 3.8% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The report said, "This is a welcome but relatively mild recovery." But this number is lower than other economies.

u3000u3000 Abebe Aemro Selassie, President of the African Region of the International Monetary Fund, said that although Africa is the least affected region in the world by the new crown epidemic, it has also experienced several consecutive peaks of the epidemic. Only 2.5% of people in Africa have received the new crown vaccine. He blamed the shortage of vaccines in Africa on stocks in developed economies and export restrictions in major vaccine manufacturers. He believes that this shortage may continue in the foreseeable future.

u3000u3000 Selassie pointed out that the new crown epidemic has had a serious impact on the most vulnerable people in the region. About 30 million people have fallen into extreme poverty, increasing inequality among income groups and regions. At the same time, rising food prices and declining incomes are threatening Africa’s past achievements in poverty reduction, health and food security.

u3000u3000 The International Monetary Fund stated that South Africa’s economic growth rate in 2021 is expected to reach 5%, which is better than expected, but due to the lack of structural reforms, it will return to a more moderate level next year. Due to high oil prices, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 2.6%. In Angola, another economy that relies heavily on oil, the International Monetary Fund predicts that Angola’s GDP will shrink by 0.7% in 2021, and then grow by 2.7% in 2022, ending six consecutive years of recession. In countries that rely on tourism, such as Cape Verde, Mauritius, Gambia, and Seychelles, economic growth has returned to the level before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, but the losses in 2020 will be difficult to erase. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund warned that the most vulnerable economies include countries such as Chad and Guinea facing wars or political tensions. The security situation there may shake the confidence of consumers and investors.