General

It has been a year since Biden came to power. When will the trade war policy during the Trump era be adjusted? At present, related expectations have become stronger and stronger. Today, the old scalper will come to calculate for everyone, when the US tariffs on China, the most important measure in the trade war, can be cancelled.

Since Biden took office, in fact, all aspects of Trump have been "suppressing counter-revolutionaries". Both personnel and diplomacy have been making comprehensive adjustments.

Generally speaking, personnel matters take precedence over policies. Therefore, in the first year after Biden took office, his main work focused on personnel adjustments to clean up Trump's "remaining party." For example, the recent arrest of Bannon is an example. And as the time of taking office enters the second year, the adjustment will gradually shift from personnel affairs to the field of foreign policy.

Among them, the trade war is the biggest foreign policy direction of the Trump era, and it is also an area where Biden will inevitably make adjustments when he redefines Sino-US relations.

The first thing that bears the brunt of this is the cancellation of the tariff increase policy introduced during the Trump era.

So, everyone is anticipating that the additional tariffs will be abolished, and they all know that this will be a great benefit to the market, but when will they be abolished?

In fact, from the public information, this time can be accurately calculated.

In the US 2022 budget announced by Biden, under the fiscal revenue item, China’s additional trade tariffs are expected to decrease by 70% year-on-year.

Last year, a full year of additional tariffs were collected. If the next year is 70% less than the same period last year, it means that only 30% of this year’s amount will be received, which means that only 3.6 months (12 months*30) will be levied in the next year. %=3.6 months).

Taking into account that the fiscal year of the United States starts on October 1 of each year, it is pushed back 3.6 months to January 18.

In other words, if nothing happens, the additional tariffs will be received as of January 18 next year, and will be officially cancelled on January 19 (Wednesday) the next day.

If a little error is allowed, usually a policy will choose Monday as the starting point. Given that both China and the United States want to end the trade war as soon as possible, then it is possible to choose the Monday before January 19, which will officially take effect on January 17 next year. , To stop imposing trade tariffs on China.

So, does it mean that the capital market will be positive in mid-January next year? of course not.

Such a policy will usually not be announced suddenly until that day. Instead, it will be announced in advance, and then you will be told when to start implementing it. Just like when the tariff increase was announced back then, in order to give foreign trade companies some preparations and buffers, they will not announce today that they will be levied tomorrow. Instead, they will announce in advance that they will be levied and tell everyone on which day they will start to collect them.

For example, when the levy was launched, the US announced on July 11, 2018, and the implementation began on September 24, with an interval of more than two months.

In comparison with this time frame, the cancellation this time can also be used as a reference. It will be pushed forward about two months from January 17, and it will be announced in November.

When will it be announced? It depends on what important time nodes are during this period.

We know that next week, October 30-31, the G20 summit will be held. The Glasgow Climate Change Conference will be held from November 1-12. At these two conferences, the United States hopes to take the lead in the two major policies of the world's lowest tax rate and carbon emissions respectively. This is an important game rule that will affect the next 50 years.

In order to achieve their goals, the United States will also have a high probability of putting some bargaining chips in other fields in the near future in exchange for the support of other countries.

Among them, China is a very influential country, and therefore, it is also a country that the United States must vigorously win over in the near future. During these two conferences, it is very cost-effective for the United States to release warmth by ending the trade war. Especially if a video meeting between the leaders of the two countries can be achieved during the conference, a lot of results will be achieved. Among them, it is very likely that the option to cancel additional tariffs will be included.

Once this policy is publicly announced, it will also bring some warmth to the market. Prior to the official announcement by both parties, the funds that Chunjiang Plumbing first knows will also lay out the market in advance.

Of course, the above is a calculation based on the current public information. This result is the most cost-effective choice for the United States. However, the international situation is changing rapidly, and no one can guarantee that the other party will exert extreme pressure and send out a moth to force us to give more benefits.

Anyway, the two important conference time points are very close, just wait for the news. If you think the calculation logic of the old scalper is reasonable, welcome to the lower right corner to check it out. I also wish you all to grasp the trading time of the last two months of this year and let the profits roll over.