General

Reported on October 26. According to a recent report on the website of "Vietnam Times", the fourth wave of the new crown epidemic has brought huge challenges to the Vietnamese economy, especially ensuring the production and supply chain of goods to meet domestic demand and exports, and to realize the economy on this basis Recovery, these can be described as an "extremely difficult task" for the country.

In the latest macroeconomic report released by the World Bank, the economic growth rate of Vietnam in 2021 will be approximately 4.8%, which is 2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. Despite the increase in downside risks, the country’s economic fundamentals remain stable. The World Bank also estimates that from 2022, Vietnam's GDP growth rate will return to the level before the outbreak, which is 6.5% to 7%. This forecast is based on the assumption that the current epidemic will be gradually brought under control. The World Bank believes that the Vietnamese economy will recover in the fourth quarter of this year.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is the department responsible for foreign economic and technical cooperation and assistance under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and Akira Shimizu is the chief representative of JICA's representative office in Vietnam. When talking about Vietnam's economic prospects, he said that Vietnam has long been favored by foreign investors and is considered to be one of the countries with great potential for diversification of the global supply chain. However, in the near future, Vietnam's economy will face certain challenges.

Akira Shimizu believes: "The fourth wave of the new crown epidemic has affected a large number of Japanese companies that have invested in and built factories in Vietnam. Although these manufacturers only manufacture certain products, because their businesses are spread all over the world, the interruption of the entire supply system will affect the entire supply system, including those in Vietnam. The global supply chain within China has still had a significant impact. This is a very serious problem that has caused some Japanese companies to be forced to cut production."

Qingshui Ming said that the new crown epidemic has highlighted the importance of Vietnam's use of local resources to improve its economic autonomy. He pointed out that Vietnam should strengthen the comprehensive strength of domestic enterprises and help them have the ability to manufacture high-quality parts and goods. To help Vietnam achieve this goal, JICA is working closely with the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam to improve the international competitiveness of Vietnamese companies.

Qingshui Ming also said that the interruption in the movement of people across borders caused by the epidemic shows how important it is for Vietnam to ensure that its managers, engineers, and workers have sufficient skills without having to rely on a team of foreign experts to maintain business operations. He said that JICA will continue to support Vietnam's industrial development from the human resources level by opening training courses on Japanese business models and strengthening the construction of vocational schools, so as to help Vietnam build a sustainable independent industrial supply chain in the future.

The World Bank is also concerned about the same problem. It pointed out in the report that in order to increase economic autonomy, Vietnam needs to use existing conditions to grow into a "world factory of digital technology" in the future. This is also the official strategic intention of Vietnam. The former has set a goal of making the country into the top 50 global information technology companies by 2025. But this task is very difficult. Vietnam previously claimed that by the end of 2019, the digital economy will account for one-third of GDP, and now it is only 5%.

Jacques Morissette, chief economist of the World Bank, said: “Vietnam is undergoing digital transformation. The violent impact of the new crown epidemic is an important external driving factor. Private companies and the public sector are beginning to be widely used."

However, Morissette also said that Vietnam still has a long way to go in the future. In addition to upgrading infrastructure, Vietnam also needs to support and encourage the promotion of digital technology and attract investment in this field, especially to create conditions for SMEs to participate in the digital economy, acquire and develop digital skills, protect corporate privacy and network security.

He believes that in the short term, Vietnam can use Intel, Apple, Samsung and other well-known technology companies investing in Vietnam to learn and improve the digital capabilities of local employees working for these companies. At the same time, the Vietnamese government should issue a series of supporting measures to attract global elites in the field of digi