General

On November 7, the latest import and export "record" was released, and the surprise came again. In the first 10 months of this year, my country’s total import and export value was 31.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. Among them, exports were 17.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%.

u3000u3000In fact, after the scale of imports and exports in the first half of the year hit the best level in the same period in history, some institutions and experts believe that as overseas supply capacity gradually recovers, the base effect weakens, and the export volume gradually rises, while the year-on-year growth rate will slow down significantly. There is even a view that the turning point of my country's high export growth will come in the third quarter. However, the data gives another answer. Following the slowdown in export growth in July, August immediately ushered in a rebound, which not only exceeded expectations, but also hit a record high in scale. Immediately afterwards, the year-on-year growth rate continued to rise in September and October.

u3000u3000 Although the export data is encouraging, people who are careful have found that the PMI new export order index, which reflects export expectations, has fallen all the way in the second and third quarters of this year. Leading indicators have declined, but actual exports have maintained relatively high growth. What is going on? How long can China's high export growth last? When will the turning point come?

u3000u3000Portrait of some foreign trade companies: raw materials and freight rates are rising, and companies dare not accept large-scale orders

u3000u3000PMI’s new export order index deviates from the actual export data. What is the reason? In response to this, Huo Jianguo, former president of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News (blog, Weibo)" that the PMI new export order index counts the status of enterprises signing overseas orders and customs exports. The data reflects the actual transaction situation. Therefore, PMI's new export order index is usually ahead of export growth, which plays a certain role in anticipating future exports.

"The decline in the export order index and the increase in export volume may be due to the increase in raw material prices, which may have led to passive increases in the prices of end-products and export data. On the other hand, despite strong external demand, companies are afraid to accept large-scale orders. Digest inventory. This shows that companies are unwilling to expand production capacity and continue to sign orders." Huo Jianguo said.

u3000u3000Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the main reason for the deviation between the PMI's new export order index and the export growth rate is the increase in raw material prices and the continuous increase in freight rates. If the cost pressure of foreign trade companies drops, the data may return to a normal state. "From the current point of view, this deviation is likely to continue until the end of this year."

u3000u3000 Li Changan (blog, Weibo), a professor at the National Institute of Opening up of the University of International Business and Economics, believes that the new export order index and export value are related but there are certain differences. At present, when the prices of raw materials are rising rapidly and exports are repeatedly impacted by the external environment, there will be a certain deviation between the two. On the one hand, the rising prices of raw materials have led to passive price increases of end products, resulting in a decline in the order index, but the export value has continued to rise. On the other hand, it is difficult for some industries with weak bargaining power to raise prices. Small and medium-sized enterprises will be trapped because of this. This is also a factor that causes the new export order index to decline.

Chen Jicheng, deputy general manager of the denim business department of Guangzhou Textile Import and Export Group Co., Ltd., revealed in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that there are indeed many external orders, but sometimes companies are afraid to take orders, especially when they encounter large orders. Very cautious, it is necessary to comprehensively consider whether the production capacity can keep up and whether it can ensure timely delivery of orders. On the other hand, it is necessary to consider many factors such as comprehensive freight rates and rising raw materials to estimate how much profit space one can have.

"Since the beginning of this year, the prices of upstream raw materials for clothing have been rising, and the prices of raw materials such as cotton, chemical fiber, and petroleum have increased at a relatively high rate." Chen Jicheng revealed to reporters that there is a raw material for jeans called stretch yarn, and women's jeans generally use high stretch yarn. The price per kilogram of this kind of stretch yarn has risen 10 times.

u3000u3000According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of this year, the import volume of some bulk commodities decreased in price, including iron ore, crude oil, soybeans, copper...all of them. The prices of many domestic raw materials have also been rising. The reporter combed and found that the prices of mechanical and electrical and textile-related raw materials, which account for a high proportion of exports, have risen sharply since the beginning of this year. For example, China's cotton composite price index has risen from 85.82 in April last year to 152.95 in October this year. In addition, the domestic steel price index and the international steel price index have also risen sharply since last year.

u3000u3000Look at the transportation link again. A person in charge of a clothing company in Nantong, Jiangsu, told reporters that shipping prices rose sharply in the first half of this year, with containers rising from more than US$2,000 to US$20,000. It has declined since September, but it still reached US$16,000 to US$17,000. "Generally, you must book the cabinet 2 months in advance, otherwise you may not be able to book, and the price of the cabinet is not based on the price at the time of booking, but based on the market price one week before the shipment."

u3000u3000 The "Daily Business News" reporter noticed that since the second half of 2020, the container freight index has risen sharply. It is worth noting that from May to September 2021, the container freight index continuously climbed from 2074.35 to 3220.55, and this period happened to be the time interval during which PMI's new export order index fell.

In addition, on October 25, the Port of Los Angeles issued an announcement announcing that in order to improve the efficiency of US ports and improve congestion, the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach will implement a new policy-to charge shipping companies a new surcharge, applicable to detention Imported containers at the terminal. According to the new policy, starting from November 1st this year, the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach will charge the shipping company a surcharge of US$100/carton for the following two types of goods, and an increase of US$100/carton per day. In the first category, for containers that are planned to be transported by truck, if the stay time at the terminal exceeds 9 days (including 9 days), the shipping company will be charged the above-mentioned surcharge. The second category, for containers transported by rail, if the stay time at the terminal exceeds 3 days (including 3 days), the shipping company will be charged the above-mentioned surcharge.

u3000u3000 A person in charge of a foreign trade company pointed out that this is a superimposed fine. A container stranded in the port will be fined $100 on the first day, $200 on the second day, and $300 on the third day. By analogy, stacking fines will make a container stranded in the port pay a fine of a very high digital level.

u3000u3000 my country’s foreign trade resilience is highlighted: Southeast Asian orders are shifting to my country, and some companies’ orders have been scheduled until next year

u3000u3000 The reporter of "Daily Business News" recently interviewed the heads of enterprises in different fields and found that although the increase in raw materials and shipping prices has a certain impact on exports, the dividends brought by the return of overseas orders in the textile industry are still continuing. In the electromechanical industry, due to the impact of foreign epidemics on industrial production, the advantages of the domestic industrial chain have been further highlighted.

A person in charge of the clothing business department of Anhui Garment Import and Export Co., Ltd. said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the company had received a large order of 30 million US dollars, which was transferred from Southeast Asian countries. To this end, a department was set up to take care of this order. "The orders for the fourth quarter have basically been issued. From the current point of view, overseas orders have been scheduled to the first half of next year, mainly from Europe and the United States." The person in charge said.

u3000u3000 In addition, the reporter noticed that the electromechanical industry, which occupies half of my country’s exports, performed very well in the first three quarters.

u3000u3000According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in the first three quarters, my country’s exports of mechanical and electrical products were US$1.41 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. In September, driven by the export of electronic information products, especially mobile phones, my country’s export of electromechanical products was US$180.24 billion, a record monthly export value, a year-on-year increase of 26%, continuing the growth momentum since June 2020, and 15 consecutive sales Achieve double-digit or even more than a year-on-year increase in the month.

Recently, the "Daily Economic News" reporter learned exclusively from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products that the Chamber of Commerce of Machinery and Electronics conducted an online questionnaire survey of nearly 600 exhibiting companies in the Canton Fair's Mechanical and Electrical Pavilion and found that most companies have sufficient orders on hand, and they have been better since the epidemic. level. Among them, 48.2% of enterprises indicated that their orders increased year-on-year, which was an increase of 1.6% compared with the 129th Canton Fair in the spring of 2021. Another 33.9% of companies indicated that their orders on hand were basically the same.

u3000u3000 In addition, according to statistics from the Chamber of Commerce of Electrical and Mechanical Services, most interviewed companies expect that the export volume of the electromechanical industry will maintain growth in 2021, and they are more optimistic about their export expectations in the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that 52.4% of the enterprises will increase their export value year-on-year, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 30.7 percentage points.

In the automobile manufacturing industry, Wen Wu, assistant general manager of Anhui Jiangqi Import and Export Trading Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that Jiangqi Group’s export performance in September was good: the sales volume in September was about 10,000, which was a significant year-on-year An increase of 131.2%, and a total of 57,000 vehicles were exported from January to September, a substantial increase of 140.8% year-on-year.

u3000u3000 Wenwu further told reporters that the "core shortage" has caused the company to cut production by about 30%, which has a relatively large impact on passenger vehicles, but a small impact on commercial vehicles. Compared to before, the delivery time has been extended by 1 to 3 months.

u3000u3000 Regarding the export expectations for the fourth quarter and next year, Wen Wu believes that the follow-up overseas market performance is still optimistic, focusing on Mexico, Chile, Peru and some countries in South America. The automobile industry chain is relatively long. Although the epidemic in European and American countries has been brought under control, the recovery of the industry chain and the supply chain of intermediate products still requires a process.

u3000u3000 Duration of data deviation: usually 4 to 6 months later, the export growth rate will be closer to the order index

u3000u3000 On October 31, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI index in October was 49.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be below the critical point. The prosperity of the manufacturing industry has weakened.

u3000u3000 By combing the PMI new export order index since this year, it can be found that since March 2021 recorded a relative high of 51.2%, it has been in a downward trend since April, and has been below the 50% dry line since May. Is the deviation of the PMI’s new export order index from the actual export data an example?

u3000u3000 "Daily Economic News" reporter combed and found that from a longer time period, this phenomenon has also occurred. From April to July 2019, the PMI new export order index fell from 49.2% to 46.9%, and the corresponding export growth rate gradually climbed from 3.22% to 10.39%. In 2018, the PMI New Export Order Index fell from 51.2% in May to 46.9% in October for five consecutive months. The monthly export growth rate has gradually increased from 2.5% to 18.7%. From January to April 2015, the PMI new export order index maintained a slight fluctuation around 48%, while the year-on-year growth rate of exports fluctuated sharply in the range of -14% to 48%.

u3000u3000 Li Qilin, deputy director and chief economist of Hongta Securities Research Institute, pointed out that PMI's new export order index is a leading indicator of exports. On the one hand, the index reflects the month-on-month changes in exports and is more sensitive to marginal changes in exports. On the other hand, because after signing an order with an overseas company, it needs to be delivered after a while, which is included in the index, but will be reflected in the export data after the delivery. If the PMI new export order index has slowed down (upward) for two to three consecutive months, it is necessary to think about whether there will be downward (upward) pressure on the future export growth rate, and whether the logic that supports the previous upward (downward) export growth Some changes.

u3000u3000 Although there is a short-term deviation between the PMI's new export order index and the actual export performance, in the long run, the two trends are still relatively consistent. From the data of previous years, after 4 to 6 months of divergence, the export growth rate and PMI's new export order index will gradually move closer. For example, from May to October 2018, there was a deviation between the two sets of data, but in October 2018, the export growth rate also began to decline, with a sharp drop of 10 percentage points. By February 2019, the PMI New Export Order Index reached a low of 45.2%, and the export growth rate was -16.51%. From April to July 2019, there was a four-month divergence between the two data, but in August, the export growth rate dropped sharply from 10.39% to 2.62%, and there was even a negative growth in September.

u3000u3000The turning point of export growth is coming? Expert: The recovery of overseas industrial chains is difficult, and the first quarter of next year may usher in an inflection point

u3000u3000 my country’s exports have maintained high growth. How long will this trend last? In an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter, Huo Jianguo said that the export growth rate in the fourth quarter may be slightly lower than that in the third quarter, because the effect of Christmas and other overseas festivals on exports has already appeared in the third quarter. The dividends brought about by the gap in overseas supply and demand will continue into the first quarter of next year, which may also be a turning point in export growth.

u3000u3000 Tang Jianwei said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that a large total export volume does not necessarily mean a large number of orders. The increase in raw material prices and freight prices may be reflected in the total export value of the terminal. The decline in PMI's new export order index indicates that the number of orders received by companies has declined. Therefore, the export growth rate in the fourth quarter is likely to slow down compared with the third quarter.

u3000u3000 The latest research report of Cinda Securities pointed out that China’s exports in the fourth quarter are still supported, but the amount may remain stable or declining from November to December.

u3000u3000 First, the proportion of personal savings deposits in the US as a percentage of disposable income has declined, and has basically returned to its pre-epidemic level. The decline in the personal savings deposit rate indicates that the current consumption level in the United States has basically returned to before the epidemic. Residents’ willingness to consume has increased, consumption is strong, and demand will encourage companies to actively prepare for imports from China. Overall, it is important to my country’s export level in the fourth quarter. There is support.

u3000u3000Second, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods consumption in the United States has shown an inflection point, while the sales of durable goods in the European Union in September still showed high growth year-on-year. Durable goods mainly refer to products that have been used repeatedly and have a long life, such as televisions, refrigerators, stereos, computers, etc., which are all recorded as electromechanical products in my country's export commodities. As we all know, my country's exports of mechanical and electrical products account for a relatively large proportion. Final sales of durable goods in the United States fell from a high of 22% in June to 11% in September. If the consumption of durable goods continues to decline year-on-year in accordance with this trend, it is likely to affect the number of electromechanical products imported by the United States from China, thereby dragging down China's overall export level in the fourth quarter.

u3000u3000Third, from the production side, the current industrial output index and capacity utilization rate in the United States are currently in good shape, and the overall situation is close to the level before the epidemic.

u3000u3000 Fourth, due to the current supply and demand gap in the United States (affected by the global epidemic and some products cannot be actively supplied due to transportation problems), the price increase of some products will support the export amount to a certain extent.

Cao Zhiqiang, a senior analyst at the China International Electronic Commerce Center, pointed out in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" that the current increase in my country’s export freight rates is due to both the poor marine transportation and the low efficiency of foreign ports. The demand is large and the orders are supported. In the week of October 15, my country's export container freight index hit a record high. This shows that there are still a large number of export goods that need to be shipped all over the world. If the problem of congestion and queuing in foreign ports is effectively solved in the future, and the freight rate drops, some domestic export companies may resume the orders that were pushed down because of the high freight rate.

u3000u3000 Cao Zhiqiang further stated that at present, my country’s export The lead is widening. On the one hand, the current foreign epidemic situation has improved slightly, but it will take time to be clearly controlled. In the short term, the foreign trade supply capacity of export competitors cannot be restored to the level before the epidemic. Foreign buyers must not only consider labor costs, but also have to make more trade-offs and considerations in terms of supply chain efficiency, delivery time, and production safety. On the other hand, the Chinese government considers and evaluates various challenges and risks in the export market, and has introduced and reserves a large number of policies to stabilize foreign trade. The competent commercial authorities are guiding export companies to actively act in the "post-epidemic" era. In summary, considering that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for my country’s exports, my country’s export situation will not be reversed.