General

In the past month, the freight rate in the container shipping market, which had been soaring before, showed signs of falling.

u3000u3000 The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange fell from 4614.10 points on September 30 to 4,535.92 points on November 5th, a decline for 4 consecutive weeks, with a decrease of 78.18 points.

u3000u3000 Among them, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market dropped from $7,444/TEU on September 30 to $7,269/TEU on November 5, showing a continued downward trend.

u3000u3000 "Maritime Silk Road" Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) Trend

u3000u3000 Coincidentally, the "Maritime Silk Road" Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) released by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange also dropped from 4092.0 points on October 8 to 3964.5 points on November 5, a decrease of 127.5 points.

u3000u3000In this regard, an analyst at the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the recent epidemic in Europe has shown signs of a rebound, and the future economic recovery still faces greater challenges.

u3000u3000 Analysts of the Ningbo Shipping Exchange analyzed that demand in the European market has weakened, and some liner companies have lowered their freight rates in order to increase their cargo solicitation, and the market booking prices have dropped slightly.

u3000u3000 Some people in the industry believe that due to the traditional off-season, it is normal to reduce the demand in the shipping market. The decline in the index and freight rates is not unexpected, and there has not been a cliff-like fall, but a gentle correction based on market demand.

u3000u3000Shifl China-US West route freight rate trend

u3000u3000 According to data from the container data company Shifl, currently, the freight rate of the China-Western United States route has dropped to about US$8,000/FEU, which has fallen by half compared to the peak of nearly US$18,000/FEU in September. The freight rate of the China-US East route has also dropped significantly, from September's $19,500/FEU to the current $13,800/FEU, a drop of about 30%.

Shifl CEO and founder Shabsie Levy believes: "The holiday shopping boom seems to have ended, and the spot market freight rates in November will continue to fall. However, before the Chinese New Year in February 2022, freight rates will rise again slightly. After that, the downward trend continued."

u3000u3000 He said: "After the Spring Festival, we will enter a traditionally calmer months. I believe we will see a steady decline in interest rates."

u3000u3000 However, this does not mean that the congestion is over.

u3000u3000 Maersk: There is no end to the supply chain crisis

u3000u3000 British "Financial Times" reported that Maersk, the world's largest container shipping group, pointed out that the global supply chain crisis has no end in sight.

u3000u3000 Last week, Maersk CEO Soren Skou stated that the onshore logistics in the import-based US and UK markets cannot keep up with the flow of goods in Asia, and the current situation is still unable to unload as quickly as desired. "The whole system has become a huge bottleneck."

u3000u3000 Maersk predicts that this kind of congestion will continue into next year. Many of its clients are planning the same timetable. In the earnings conference call, companies such as HP and Under Armour have been telling investors that they are preparing for supply chain disruption in the first half of 2022 (or even longer).

u3000u3000COSCO Shipping: 17% of global container capacity was wasted due to congestion in the first three quarters

u3000u3000 At the 2021 North Bund International Shipping Forum and International Shipping Parallel Forum held on the 4th, Fu Gangfeng, the managing director of China COSCO Shipping Group, said that the impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain has caused logistics bottlenecks to varying degrees.

u3000u3000 In the first three quarters of 2021, global container capacity has increased by about 25% compared to the average of the three years before the epidemic, and the capacity wasted due to port congestion is as high as 17%.

u3000u3000 At the same time, he pointed out that open cooperation is still an important way to solve challenges, and a higher-quality supply chain logistics system must be established to meet the needs of customers' industrial chain upgrades.