General

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), initiated by ASEAN in 2012 and reached through 8 years of negotiations, will take effect on January 1, 2022. On November 2, the ASEAN Secretariat responsible for the safekeeping of the agreement announced that Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and other 6 ASEAN member states and 4 non-ASEAN member states including China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia have formally submitted Approval, so that the agreement meets the conditions for entry into force.

u3000u3000The level of openness exceeds that of the WTO

On November 11, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of China, Shu Jueting, said that RCEP’s coming into effect as scheduled is a major new development in East Asian regional economic integration, which will strongly stimulate the growth of intra-regional trade and investment, improve the overall business environment in the region, and stabilize regional industries. Chain supply chain. At present, all domestic preparations for implementing RCEP are in place, which can ensure the full fulfillment of obligations when the agreement comes into force.

Wang Yong, professor of the School of International Relations of Peking University and director of the Center for International Political Economy of Peking University, said in an interview with this newspaper: "The official launch of RCEP is important for promoting regional trade liberalization, economic integration, world economic recovery, and continued economic globalization. Development is of great significance. At present, affected by repeated global epidemics, populism and trade protectionism, the world economy is facing severe challenges. The launch of RCEP will become a rare bright spot in the global economy."

Yuan Bo, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of Asian Studies of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with this newspaper: “RCEP is currently the world’s largest free trade zone. The total amount is about 30%, which can not only promote intra-regional trade and investment and economic growth, enhance confidence in regional economic development, but also play a positive role in the recovery of global trade and investment growth under the epidemic. RCEP has a higher level of openness than WTO, which represents The development direction of free trade will help promote the development of economic globalization. The RCEP region is also the center of the global manufacturing industry. The formation of a stable and open industrial chain supply chain cooperation relationship through free trade and rules and regulations will also help ease the current world. Facing the supply crisis."

u3000u3000 is expected to form the world's largest market

u3000u3000 The years are like birds fluttering, and the world is like a new chess game. Affected by trade frictions and the epidemic, major changes have taken place in the international market, and the significance of Asia-Pacific economic integration for China's economic development has become increasingly prominent.

u3000u3000 On November 7, the General Administration of Customs announced China’s foreign trade import and export data for the first 10 months of this year. In the first 10 months, China’s total import and export value was RMB 31.67 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% and a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. In the first 10 months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and ASEAN was 4.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.4%, accounting for 14.4% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, exports to ASEAN were 2.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.1%; imports from ASEAN were 2.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.2%; the trade surplus with ASEAN was 448.51 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%.

Zhang Manan, chief researcher of the US-Europe Institute of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, said in an interview: "Intra-Asia-Pacific trade has grown very fast in recent years. Countries such as China, Japan and South Korea have become the centers of global manufacturing. RCEP is conducive to promoting trade and investment. Facilitate and promote the establishment of a unified large market. RCEP can rely on regional resource endowments to form a closed loop of the industrial chain, value chain, and supply chain in the region. It is easier to implement and easier to implement between China and neighboring countries and other important trading partners. Adjusted agreements to stabilize China’s international economic and trade relations and hedge against the adverse effects of possible international economic and political turmoil. The important role of RCEP is to reduce trade costs. More than 90% of the tariffs on trade in goods are reduced to zero or in Reduce to zero tariffs within 10 years."

Yuan Bo pointed out: "After the RCEP takes effect, the movement of goods, services, investment and people between the member states of the region will be more free and convenient, and the economic ties between the 15 countries in the region will be more seamless, and will gradually form the world's largest regional integrated market. , Not only helps to expand intra-regional trade and investment, but also helps attract more foreign capital to enter, thereby promoting regional economic growth. According to estimates, by 2035, RCEP will drive the overall real GDP, exports and imports of the region. Compared with the baseline situation, the volume increased by 0.86%, 18.30% and 9.63% respectively. The cumulative increase in exports and imports will reach US$857.1 billion and US$983.7 billion, respectively. Regional investment will increase by 1.47%, and regional economic welfare will increase by 162.8 billion. Dollar."

u3000u3000 Deepen political mutual trust among members

The International Monetary Fund stated in the "Asia-Pacific Economic Forecast" published in October that compared with the expected value of the April 2021 World Economic Outlook, Asia’s growth prospects for 2021 have fallen by more than 1 percentage point to 6.5. %, because the epidemic has entered a new outbreak cycle. The "Asia-Pacific Economic Forecast" proposes to reignite the Asian growth engine through trade liberalization. The analysis emphasizes that there is still room for Asia to lower non-tariff barriers faster (much higher than other regions) in order to achieve inclusive prosperity and faster development. Based on the progress made in regional agreements such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), we will continue to strive for development.

u3000u3000 As we all know, one of the difficulties of Asia-Pacific economic integration is the large differences in the development level of various countries.

Yuan Bo said: "The goal of RCEP is to promote the sharing of RCEP results among member states in order to achieve the goal of inclusive, balanced and common development. Therefore, it has set up special chapters on SMEs and economic and technological cooperation, and will provide outstanding debts in the open commitment of the agreement. Developed members are treated differently, providing technical assistance and capacity building support."

Zhang Manan said: "The characteristic of RCEP is its inclusiveness. There are some rules that are not as high as CPTPP, including intellectual property protection, data governance, and market competition neutral policies, which give developing countries a buffer of time. For example, regional principles. Accumulation of origin rules, the standard of production value in the region is set at a standard of 40%. It does not have a very obvious exclusivity like the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement or the CPTPP, which provides some countries with more extensive participation in the global value chain Space. I believe that as regional integration continues to deepen, RCEP may also be further upgraded."

Wang Yong said: "The RCEP negotiations have taken into account the development gaps between different economies and gave different countries different policy space. This reflects the basic characteristics of trade liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region, that is, face up to and respect the gaps and make corresponding arrangements. , More reflecting the concept of "big family", rather than blindly pursuing the so-called "high standards" of liberalization. At present, the biggest challenge of RCEP is that the region is facing geopolitical pressure driven by the United States. In order to contain China's development, the United States, In the Asia-Pacific region, forming gangs, forming military alliances, and allowing countries in the region to "choose sides" is the greatest damage to the integrity of the Asia-Pacific region. Even in this case, most of the 15 countries voluntarily chose to approve the start of the integration. The process of RCEP demonstrates the pressure to resist the “securization” of the US economic issues and the unwillingness to “choose sides” between China and the United States. At the same time, the launch of RCEP will improve the relationship between certain members and provide a good Environment. RCEP will further promote cooperation and policy coordination among countries in the region, and will deepen the foundation of political mutual trust, and move towards the goal of a true regional community."

Wang Yong also pointed out: “RCEP members include Australia, but not the United States and India. The signal sent by RCEP is that regional countries have common will and common interests to promote the development of regional economic integration and maintain economic relations with China. Important part. All countries in the Asia-Pacific region have benefited from the rise of China’s economy. As a result, India will increase its sense of crisis and worry that it will not be able to seize the opportunity of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. The epidemic has caused a huge impact on the Indian economy and is also forced to Internal pressure, it withdrew at the last minute. However, RCEP still reserves opportunities for India to enter the process of Asia-Pacific economic integration. India should focus on long-term interests and be determined to participate in the process of Asia-Pacific integration, while not following the United States. Containing China and becoming the strategic “pawn” of the United States to contain China, and losing strategic independence. Australia is an active promoter of Asia-Pacific economic integration and has played a relatively large role in it. With the opportunity of RCEP launch, Australia should maintain its relationship with China. The close economic ties between China and the U.S. are more conducive to Australia’s national interests.