General

According to the latest data released by Drewry on the 26th, the three major shipping alliances in the world have cancelled multiple voyages in the next 4 weeks (weeks 48-51), of which the most cancelled voyages are the cancellation of 20 voyages by THE Alliance; 2M Alliance Reached 10 voyages; the least ocean alliance canceled 1 voyage.

As stated in the Drewry Port Ship Waiting Time Tracking Report, although the LA/LB port congestion in San Pedro Bay is increasing every week, the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach Authority announced in the last week to further improve the container stay time at the terminal, and once again The decision to impose container stay fees was postponed to November 29 to allow more time to assess the situation.

Port congestion is a global phenomenon that causes serious delays in shipping schedules and forces carriers to jump into ports, especially in Europe, while imports from Asia are expected to remain strong until January 22.

Among the 556 scheduled voyages on major trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, Asia-Northern and Asia-Mediterranean routes, 47 voyages were cancelled between week 48 and week 51, with a cancellation rate of 8%. According to Drewry’s current data, during this period, 72% of blank voyages will occur on the trans-Pacific eastbound trade route.

According to the latest data from the signal platform of the Port of Los Angeles on November 26, the average waiting time for each ship outside the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has reached 18.8 days, which is more than twice that of two months ago. This ship" The "Bal Peace" container ship has been waiting for berth for 62 days. Although the new ship queuing system algorithm seems to have reduced the number of waiting ships, the actual waiting time of the ships has increased. This undoubtedly makes the container ships outside the two major ports more difficult. The congestion situation is getting worse.

Just as Maersk's latest market information report released on the 24th predicted that overall demand in December will remain strong. Congestion in North American ports has deteriorated recently, and the waiting time for ships in Los Angeles/Long Beach/Seattle has increased to 21 days. Port congestion will still result in a shortage of voyages and capacity.

Freight rates have an upward trend

Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in many places in the United States has continued to increase and is still at a high level, and the epidemic situation has once again deteriorated. On the 26th, New York State Governor Hochul signed an executive order declaring that the state has entered a "disaster emergency".

The situation of epidemic prevention and control is not optimistic, and the market has maintained high demand for the transportation of various materials including epidemic prevention materials. The combination of the epidemic and the low efficiency of the U.S. collection and distribution system has caused long-term port congestion, stagnant container pressure, and poor transportation turnover. The average space utilization rate of ships on the routes from Shanghai Port to the US West and East US routes is basically fully loaded.

According to the latest Global-Baltic Container Freight Index (FBX) on the 26th, the Asia-Western US Freight Index has risen from US$14,185 per 40-foot container on November 19 to US$14,677 on the 26th. The increase reached 3%.

The Asia-East US freight index has risen from US$16,124 per 40-foot container on November 19 to US$16,633 on the 26th. The increase reached 3%.

And Drewry's latest comprehensive world container index remained stable last week, maintaining at $9,186.39 per 40-foot container, but it was still 224% higher than the same period last year. The year-to-date WCI average composite index assessed by it is US$7,413 per 40-foot container, which is US$4,723 higher than the five-year average of US$2,690 per 40-foot container.

The Drewry Index shows that the Shanghai-Rotterdam freight rate rose by 1%, or $75, to $13,475/FEU. Similarly, the spot freight rate from Shanghai to New York rose 1% to US$13,230/FEU. However, the freight rates of Shanghai-Genoa and Shanghai-Los Angeles are hovering near the levels of previous weeks. Drewry expects interest rates to remain stable in the coming week.

While the majority of freight forwarders are wary of the re-rising of freight rates, they also need to pay attention to the impact of the new round of global epidemic on major ports in Europe and the US, East and West. This situation is expected to continue for a period of time. The trend of container freight rates still needs to be paid attention to. !

At present, it is the stall period for cargo owners and shippers to enter the main contract period with the shipping company. They are eager to determine the space and freight through long-term contracts. In the next six months, many long-term contracts will be signed.

The current environment may be the best opportunity ever for shipping companies, but it may be the worst time period for shippers. But in the long run, if a large number of shippers are now signing contracts at very high freight rates, after experiencing a decline in freight rates in the past three months, shippers and shippers may be in the next 6-12 months. The disappointment within can be costly.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said that pricing may be a secondary consideration for many shippers seeking stability and predictability in the global supply chain.

But Peter Sand said frankly: "Although the long-term agreement negotiations may be very difficult, the shipper wants to deliver the goods on time. Since the summer, the freight rate of the long-term agreement has been rising, which is in line with the falling spot freight rate in the market. The spread is narrowing, and it is expected that the spread will narrow further in the coming months.

"The current supply and demand relationship in the freight market is still unstable. Without any mechanism to monitor prices in the next 6 to 12 months or 24 months, it seems very risky for cargo owners to reach an agreement for the next 12 months.