General

"Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade has withstood multiple pressures at home and abroad, and has generally achieved stable operation. It is expected to maintain a relatively high growth in June." Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shu Jueting on July 7 at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce express.

There have been positive changes in the operation of foreign trade recently. In dollar terms, my country's export value increased by 3.9% year-on-year in April and 16.9% in May, showing a rapid recovery momentum. The market expects that the export value to be announced in June is expected to maintain double-digit growth. Experts said that with the orderly recovery of domestic production and supply and the continued increase in foreign trade stabilization policies, there is a solid foundation for maintaining stability and improving foreign trade quality. The foreign trade industry has a solid foundation, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. my country's foreign trade development has the advantages of strong resilience, sufficient potential and large room for maneuver.

Leading indicators report good business expectations

According to the latest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the new export orders index in June was 49.5%, a new high since May 2021, indicating that exports will continue to maintain a high growth rate in June. "Driven by factors such as the further recovery of logistics, the accelerated delivery of backlog orders in the early stage, and the effectiveness of foreign trade stabilization policies, the export growth rate in June may remain at a high double-digit level." said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng. .

According to the "Research Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation in the Second Quarter of 2022" released recently, in the second quarter of this year, the business conditions of foreign trade enterprises have improved, and foreign trade enterprises' expectations for annual growth have increased. 26.22% of enterprises expect annual trade 28.17% of companies believe that it is at least the same as last year. Among them, the expectations of large enterprises are relatively stable, the expectations of medium-sized enterprises are more optimistic, and the confidence of small and micro enterprises has gradually increased. Feng Yaoxiang, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and Minister of the Trade and Investment Promotion Department, said that with the overall improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the effects of policies and measures to stabilize growth have gradually emerged, and the operation of foreign trade has undergone positive changes.

"The export situation in the second half of the year is relatively optimistic." Li Dawei, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economics of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that my country's export products have "all-round" competitiveness, that is, when the external demand structure changes, Chinese enterprises can find new export growth points. For example, last year, products related to the "home economy" became the main force driving export growth. This year, with the recovery of overseas cross-border tourism, the export of travel products has become a new growth point. He expects the export growth rate to stabilize at 10% in the second half of the year.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that from the perspective of the manufacturing PMI indicators of major economies, global demand is expected to maintain an expanding trend in the second half of the year. As the domestic epidemic is gradually brought under control, various localities have coordinated and introduced targeted policies and measures to smooth the transportation, logistics and industrial chain supply chains, and speed up the resumption of work and production. The recovery of domestic demand is expected to drive the increase in import demand, and the superimposed commodity prices will gradually return to the fundamentals. , to promote enterprises to replenish inventories, it is expected that imports will also improve in the second half of the year, and the overall stable growth of foreign trade can be expected.

Comprehensive measures to enhance resilience and vitality

The recent positive changes in foreign trade operations are inseparable from the continuous encryption of policy support. "Since this year, the country has introduced a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade. Through cross-cycle adjustment and comprehensive measures, the stable development of foreign trade has been promoted. Compared with the previous one, this time it is more emphasized to stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain as soon as possible in the short term, while taking into account the goal of improving quality while maintaining stability. ” said Zhao Ping, vice president of the Research Institute of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.

The General Office of the State Council has previously issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Stability and Quality Improvement of Foreign Trade", which aims to promote the stability and smoothness of foreign trade, increase fiscal, taxation and financial support, help foreign trade enterprises seize orders and expand the market, and stabilize the supply chain of the foreign trade industry chain. 13 initiatives were launched. Subsequently, the Ministry of Commerce, together with 27 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the General Administration of Customs, studied and promulgated relevant implementation policies. The executive meeting of the State Council held on June 8 deployed measures to further stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, and required to further increase support while implementing the policies that have been introduced to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment.

Experts believe that there are many factors that support the resilience of my country's foreign trade. From the perspective of export products, the quality of my country's products is recognized by the international community, and the export of high-tech and high-value-added products continues to increase; from the perspective of export objects, my country's foreign trade "circle of friends" continues to expand, and trade with ASEAN and "Belt and Road" countries. From the perspective of enterprise types, the export of private enterprises has grown rapidly and the proportion has increased. Take the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as an example. As the largest free trade agreement in the world so far, RCEP has been implemented for half a year and has continuously released dividends for the foreign trade development of each member state. Gu Xueming, dean of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that RCEP has reduced the tariffs on trade goods of countries in the region, and has played a positive role in regional trade, investment and industrial chain supply chain value chain through high-level economic and trade rules.

"The fundamentals of my country's foreign trade have not changed for a long time, and the development of foreign trade has strong resilience." Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economics of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that my country is the only country with a complete United Nations-certified industrial category, and its domestic industrial supporting system is complete , the foreign trade industry has a solid foundation; at the same time, in the past two years of anti-epidemic practice, my country's economic development and epidemic prevention and control have maintained a leading position in the world, and the supply chain has shown strong stability. In addition, my country's logistics system has been continuously improved, infrastructure construction is leading the world, and the central government has continuously issued policies to supplement the weak points of the industrial chain.

The interviewees also mentioned that my country's foreign trade development is still affected by uncertain factors such as the spread of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, geopolitical conflicts, and exchange rate fluctuations. In view of this, industry insiders expect that foreign trade policies will also make targeted efforts to further defuse pressure and stabilize expectations. Liang Ming, director of the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the basis for maintaining stability and improving foreign trade is to maintain stability. In general, on the basis of the achievements made last year, effective measures should be taken to ensure that the scale of foreign trade and the international market share remain within a reasonable range.

There are many favorable conditions for maintaining stability and improving quality

This year's government work report put forward the expected goal of maintaining stability and improving the quality of imports and exports. "There are still many favorable conditions for the stability and improvement of foreign trade throughout the year." Shu Jueting said that my country's foreign trade industry has a solid foundation, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. All localities have further coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, continuously optimized and refined policy measures, and stimulated the resilience and vitality of the foreign trade industry. The new energy and other industries have a good growth momentum and are expected to continue to contribute to the increment in the second half of the year.

Xu Yingming, director of the International Market Research Institute of the Academy of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the domestic epidemic situation is generally slowing down, and various policy arrangements are being implemented as soon as possible, and market players are gradually resuming work and production. At the same time, external demand will continue to remain strong, and foreign trade logistics will be gradually smoothed. These factors will further support the stability and improvement of my country's foreign trade.

The role of the FTA in promoting foreign trade development will be further manifested. Looking forward to the second half of the year, RCEP dividends will continue to be released, further strengthening regional industrial cooperation, and helping China's foreign trade maintain stability and improve quality. "my country has more and more partners in free trade agreements, and the tax reduction and trade facilitation effect of free trade agreements will also play an important role in promoting the development of foreign trade." Shu Jueting said.

New forms of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce, as new growth points of foreign trade development, play a prominent role in maintaining the stability and quality of foreign trade. Li Xingqian, director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that the Ministry of Commerce will start with improving support policies and introduce policies and measures to facilitate the return and exchange of cross-border e-commerce exports as soon as possible. In addition, it will continue to promote the innovative development of market procurement trade methods, support foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises to play a leading role, so as to promote the mutual promotion and integration of cross-border e-commerce and other business formats, continuously expand trade channels, and promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade. Help foreign trade maintain stability and improve quality.

While striving to achieve the goal of maintaining stability and improving the quality of foreign trade this year, the policy also focuses on promoting the transformation and upgrading of my country's foreign trade in the long run. Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the future foreign trade transformation and upgrading base is expected to expand. Relevant departments will speed up the cultivation of platforms and carriers such as the National Processing Trade Industrial Park and the Import Trade Promotion Innovation Demonstration Zone, support the innovative development of processing trade, continue to promote smooth logistics and settlement, and improve the level of trade facilitation.