General

Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Western countries have successively introduced a number of "destructive" sanctions policies against Russia, with greater intensity and breadth than ever before, which have dealt a heavy blow to Russia's economy and foreign trade. At the moment of economic globalization, countries are inseparable and interconnected. The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is by no means limited to Russia and Ukraine. It will affect the world economy through various channels.

        The basic situation of Russia-Ukraine foreign trade

(1) The basic situation of Russia’s foreign trade

Russia, which spans North Asia and Eastern Europe, is the largest country in the world and an important part of the international market. During the period from 2011 to 2020, the scale of Russia's foreign trade fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then decline"; in terms of trade balance, Russia's exports over the years were significantly greater than its imports, and it has been in trade for a long time. Surplus status, in 2020, Russia's total exports will be 337.1 billion US dollars, total imports will be 231.7 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus will be 105.4 billion US dollars.

In addition, in 2015, the trough of Russia's import and export trade volume was closely related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. In 2014, the Crimea crisis and the Donbas War broke out, and a fierce exchange of fire broke out in eastern Ukraine, which seriously impacted Russia's foreign trade. After 2018, Russia's import and export trade volume has shown a gradual downward trend, which is caused by the long-term tense economic and trade relations between Russia and the European Union. In 2020, with the global outbreak and large-scale spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Russia's import and export trade volume once again showed a trend of sharp decline.

Russia's trade advantages are mainly concentrated in energy exports, grain exports, fertilizer exports and metal exports. As far as Russia's energy export advantages are concerned, in terms of crude oil, in 2020, Russia's proven oil reserves will be 107.8 billion barrels, accounting for 6.2% of the world's proven total, ranking first in Europe; Exported crude oil of US$72.5 billion, accounting for 11% of the world's total crude oil exports, second only to Saudi Arabia; in terms of natural gas, as of the end of 2020, Russia's proven natural gas reserves were 1320.5 trillion cubic feet, accounting for 19.9% of the world's total , ranking first in the world; in 2020, Russia's natural gas exports were US$7.84 billion, accounting for 3.4% of the world's total natural gas exports, ranking seventh in the world.

In terms of Russia's grain export advantages, Russia is an important wheat exporter. In 2020, Russia's wheat exports accounted for 17.6% of the world's total wheat exports, ranking first in the world, followed by the United States (14.1%). ), Canada (14%), France (10.1%) and Ukraine (8%); in 2020, the largest export destination of Russian wheat is Egypt, whose exports account for 22.69% of Russia’s total wheat exports, and other major wheat exports The export destination countries are Turkey (21.29%), Bangladesh (5.16%), Sudan (3.57%), Azerbaijan (3.59%) and Nigeria (2.26%).

(2) The basic situation of Ukraine's foreign trade

Overall, during the period from 2011 to 2020, Ukraine's import and export volume also showed a trend of "first decline, then increase, and then decline"; specifically, Ukraine's import and export volume appeared around 2015. The negative impact of the crisis in Rimia is closely related. The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia is the main reason for the decline in Ukraine's import and export trade in 2020. In terms of trade balance, Ukraine's imports over the years have been significantly larger than its exports, and Ukraine has been in a trade deficit for a long time. In 2020, Ukraine's exports amounted to $49.23 billion, imports totaled $53.67 billion, and a trade deficit of $4.44 billion.

Ukraine plays a very important role in the global grain market, and agriculture is Ukraine's pillar industry. The astonishingly fertile black soil, favorable weather and abundant irrigation water have jointly shaped Ukraine, which covers an area of 600,000 square kilometers, into a world-renowned "European granary". In 2020, global wheat exports totaled $44.9 billion, and Ukraine’s wheat exports were worth $3.594 billion, accounting for 8% of the world’s total wheat exports. According to the USDA 2022 report, Ukraine's exports of sunflower seeds, wheat and corn will account for 47%, 10% and 14% of total global exports in 2021-22, respectively, and barley exports will account for 17% of total world exports. . In terms of export destinations, Ukraine's wheat, corn and barley are mainly exported to Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other regions. In a word, Ukraine's grain export is related to the food supply of many countries. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably affect the production and export of Ukraine's grain, which will have a serious impact on the world.

The basic situation of bilateral trade between China and Russia

(1) Characteristics of Sino-Russian Bilateral Trade

On the whole, the trade volume between China and Russia shows a trend of "first rising, then falling, and then rising". It is worth noting that Russia's import and export trade volume has shown a clear downward trend after 2018, while the Sino-Russian trade volume has been relatively stable, indicating that my country's foreign trade relationship with Russia has become more stable and resilient. This is my country's positive trend in recent years. The result of promoting economic and trade exchanges with Russia. According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce recently, the trade volume of goods between China and Russia in 2021 will reach 146.87 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. The status of the source country of crude oil imports and the largest source of electricity imports.

Although China's trade dependence on Russia is relatively small in general, Russia is an important trading partner of China for some products. In terms of imports, China's fertilizer imports from Russia accounted for 22.73% of China's total fertilizer imports, nickel and its products from Russia accounted for 18.75%, imported wood and wood products accounted for 18.38%, and imported ore Fuel and mineral oil accounted for 12.48%, and imported cocoa and cocoa preparations accounted for 10.81%. In terms of exports, Russia is an important export market for some of my country's products. China's exports of cork and cork products, photographic and film supplies, other base metals, tobacco, and cocoa to Russia account for 5% of China's total exports of such products. above.

(2) Characteristics of China-Uzbekistan Bilateral Trade

On the whole, the trade volume between China and Uzbekistan shows a trend of "first decline and then increase". It is worth noting that in 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic broke out on a large scale. While the import and export trade volume of Ukraine declined, the bilateral trade volume between China and Ukraine still rose strongly. According to China Customs statistics, the trade volume between China and Ukraine in 2021 will be 19.305 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.426 billion US dollars or 29.7% over 2020. China is Ukraine's largest trading partner.

Although China's trade dependence on Ukraine is relatively small in general, Ukraine is an important trading partner of China for some products. From the perspective of China's imports, in 2020, China's imports of grains from Ukraine accounted for 20.04% of China's total imports of this category, and China's imports of animal feed, animal and vegetable oils and waxes from Ukraine accounted for 11.98% and 9.6% of my country's total imports of this category, respectively. %. For these three products, Ukraine is a very important source of imports for my country. In addition, the dependence on other products is relatively low. The fourth-ranked milling industry products only account for 2.94% of my country's total imports of such products. , the impact is relatively limited. From the perspective of China's exports, China's most dependent product on Ukraine's exports is grain. However, China's exports of grains to Ukraine account for only 1.07% of China's total grain exports. It can be seen that Ukraine, as an export market, has an impact on my country's exports. relatively limited.

The possible impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Chinese economy

As an important part of the world market and an important trading partner of Russia and Ukraine, China will inevitably be negatively affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will also be transmitted to my country through trade channels, financial channels and supply chain channels. , my country's economic development is facing increasing uncertainty.

(1) Obstructing my country's imports of energy, agricultural products and fertilizers through trade channels

In terms of trade dependence, China's trade dependence on Russia is around 2%, and its trade dependence on Ukraine has always been lower than 1%; in terms of total trade volume, the overall impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on China is relatively limited. However, from a local perspective, my country still has a strong dependence on Russia and Ukraine in some energy products, agricultural products and mineral products.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict may affect my country's energy supply. On the one hand, in terms of energy supply, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a reduction in Russia's energy exports, and my country's energy supply may be significantly affected. In 2020, my country imported 33.385 billion US dollars of fossil fuels from Russia, accounting for about one-tenth of my country's total imports of such products. Russia is an important source of energy imports for China. Russia's natural gas, oil and other energy products are the main components of my country's energy supply. According to relevant analysis, in terms of oil imports, my country will import 83.57 million tons of oil from Russia in 2020, accounting for 15.67% of my country's total imports. Russia is the largest source of my country's oil imports; in terms of natural gas imports, because my country's natural gas imports come from sources It is more diversified, and its dependence on Russia is relatively low; in terms of coal, due to my country’s informal restrictions on Australian coal imports in 2020, the demand for Russian coal imports will also rise. Once Russia’s energy supply If there is a problem, there will also be a certain degree of energy crisis. On the other hand, in terms of energy prices, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused global energy prices to rise all the way. Because of the high proportion of China’s crude oil and natural gas imports, the rise in international crude oil prices will also affect the domestic market, driving domestic refined oil prices to adjust significantly. A round of refined oil price adjustment window opened, and the prices of various petroleum products showed an upward trend. Based on the important position of energy products in social production, the lack of energy supply or rising costs caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will have an important impact on my country's production and life.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict may reduce my country's imports of agricultural products and fertilizers. my country's imports of fertilizers from Russia accounted for 22.73% of my country's total imports of this category, and imports of grains from Ukraine accounted for 20.04% of my country's imports of this category. The export of agricultural products and fertilizers from the two countries will also have many impacts on the supply of agricultural products in my country. On the one hand, fertilizers play a crucial role in the production of agricultural products in my country. Combined with the tense situation in the global fertilizer market, once Russia reduces the supply of fertilizers to my country's fertilizer market, my country's crop production has also been affected to a certain extent; on the other hand, Ukraine is an important source of corn and wheat imports in my country. The transportation and trade costs raised by the Ukraine crisis, and the suppressed Ukrainian agricultural product exports will, to a certain extent, cause my country's grain production. The tight supply situation affects my country's food imports. But it is worth noting that in recent years, my country's grain and fertilizer self-sufficiency rate has been high, and the diversification of grain imports has also been further enhanced in recent years. The main purpose of my country's grain imports is to adjust surplus and deficiency. Under these circumstances, domestic food prices are still stable and controllable. Therefore, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not had a significant impact on domestic food prices and food security, and more impact is reflected in the level of imports.

(2) Exacerbating the volatility of my country's stock market through financial channels

The global capital market volatility caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict will also affect my country's stock market. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, my country's stock market has also experienced a relatively strong impact. Consistent with the volatility of the global capital market, market panic will prompt investors to choose safe-haven assets, which will further aggravate the volatility of the stock market. On March 15, 2022, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.7% and 5.0% respectively. China concept stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A shares showed an unprecedented overall downward trend. The representative international institutional investors are shorting Chinese stocks in various markets, which makes the Chinese stock market and the Hong Kong market fluctuate significantly. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, although the Chinese concept stocks are currently showing a "bottom rebound" trend to a certain extent, in the future, we should still be alert to the uncertainty brought by geopolitical conflicts to the domestic financial market.

(3) Increase imported inflationary pressure through supply chain channels

China is an important part of the world market. Due to the high degree of external dependence of some commodities in my country, the low industrial concentration of imported enterprises, the lagging development of the commodity futures market and the relatively low degree of internationalization of the RMB, the high price of commodities in the international market The shock will also affect my country's domestic economy, and the rise in international commodity prices also means that my country's imported inflation risk increases to a certain extent. On the one hand, my country is a big manufacturing country, and industry occupies an important position in the national economy. Since the Ukrainian crisis, international bulk commodities have continued to rise, and the prices of raw materials represented by bulk commodities have also risen, bringing certain operating pressures to Chinese enterprises. Financing pressure; at the same time, rising commodity prices will eventually be reflected in prices through the supply chain, increasing people's living costs. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still continuing, and the risk of imported inflation will inevitably affect my country's active fiscal and monetary policies. In this case, the government needs to actively track changes in the international and domestic markets, and try its best to implement accurate fiscal and monetary policies.

China's Countermeasures to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On the whole, Russia and Ukraine have a relatively small proportion in my country's foreign trade, and will not have a very obvious impact on my country's foreign trade and even the overall economy. However, they will still have a significant impact on China in key product areas. The specific analysis is as follows:

(1) Increase production capacity, stabilize imports, and promote the effective transformation of the energy structure

In 2020, my country's overall energy structure is still dominated by fossil energy, of which coal accounts for 58%, natural gas 10%, oil 17%, and environmentally friendly renewable energy accounts for 15%. Among fossil energy, my country mainly imports main. In 2021, China's crude oil output will be 199 million tons, crude oil import volume will be 513 million tons, and the crude oil dependence on foreign countries will be 72%. Although China's sources of energy sources such as crude oil and natural gas have been diversified, and long-term contracts account for a high proportion, as long as all parties comply with the contracts, imports can remain generally stable, but we also need to be alert to the risk of supply interruptions. Russia is the first country in my country. A major source of energy imports, the crisis in Ukraine will increase the risk of interruption of Russia's energy exports to a certain extent.

In order to minimize the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on my country's energy supply, my country should start from three aspects: first, my country should focus on increasing production capacity, increasing reserves, and increasing supply. Second, my country should continue to expand the sources of imports to prevent energy dependence on some major energy countries and avoid potential risks caused by geopolitical conflicts; third, my country's current energy structure is still based on Fossil energy is the mainstay, and under the goal of "reaching the peak by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060",

Promoting the transformation of the energy structure should also become the focus of work at this stage. my country should introduce relevant policies to increase the proportion of clean energy in my country's energy structure, such as vigorously promoting renewable electricity and nuclear power to replace coal power. my country's energy structure is more "cleaner".

(2) Guaranteeing supply, stabilizing prices, and ensuring food security

Considering the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the import of agricultural products in my country, my country should focus on ensuring food supply and stable prices. For a long time, my country has attached great importance to food security. my country's grain output has exceeded 1.3 trillion kilograms for seven consecutive years, and the overall grain import is mainly to adjust the surplus and deficiency. Under the current situation, my country's grain prices remain stable. However, in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in order to further ensure my country's food security, the state should actively tap domestic agricultural potential, expand domestic planting area, increase domestic grain output, and ensure "sufficient domestic grain". At the same time, actively expand imports , actively explore new sources of imports, and achieve "stabilization of imports". On this basis, pay attention to the stabilization of grain prices and stabilize the "basic plate" of grain prices, so that the rice bowls of all Chinese people are "steady".

(3) Stabilize the hearts and minds of the people and enterprises, and strengthen the control of commodity prices

Commodities such as grain, energy, and minerals are important material resources and means of production for production and life. The continued rise in international commodity prices will bring about the risk of imported inflation, disrupt the orderliness of the market, and disrupt the current trajectory of stable economic development. . In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the international commodity price situation will inevitably become more severe and complex, showing strong uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on my country's production and life. Under such circumstances, the Chinese government should pay close attention to international commodity prices. . Changes and trends in domestic commodity prices, and relevant measures have been introduced to strengthen the control of commodity prices. First of all, my country should guide the market to form reasonable expectations. While strengthening the monitoring, early warning and analysis of commodity prices, it should also emphasize the guidance work for the masses, so as to timely and effectively release the information and interpretation of commodity price changes, and at the same time increase the period of time. The spot market has been linked with supervision to prevent market panic, and severely cracked down on illegal and illegal acts such as fabricating and spreading information on price increases, hoarding, and driving up prices to ensure "stabilizing the hearts of the people." Secondly, the supervision should give certain attention and support to enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, which are greatly affected by the rise in commodity prices. Compared with large enterprises with more abundant cash flow and relatively low financing costs, small and medium-sized enterprises are more likely to have a higher price in commodity prices. In the process of rising, the pressure of rising raw material costs and financing costs is even greater. The state should help small and medium-sized enterprises to survive the related shocks caused by the continuous high fluctuation of commodity prices through government subsidies, loan interest discounts, and tax rebates, so as to "stabilize enterprises".

In general, we must be fully aware that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will have a certain negative impact on my country's economy while having a severe impact on the global economy and trade. The direct impact of the Ukrainian conflict on my country’s economy is controllable as a whole, but my country is still difficult to be immune to itself. In addition to the direct impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Chinese economy analyzed in this article, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will also have many indirect effects. For example, the world Changes in the economic landscape, trends in Western countries' cooperation with each other, and changes in strategy, these indirect effects are crucial to China. Indirect impact is a major topic that needs special attention and research as soon as possible.