General

"At present, the century-old changes and the epidemic of the century are intertwined and superimposed. The changes of the world, the times, and the history are unfolding in an unprecedented way, and international trade has entered a period of turbulent changes. my country's economy is now facing downward pressure, which is also part of the entire global change. From the perspective of global changes, there are two basic features: the first feature is not only insufficient domestic demand, but also insufficient global total demand. The second feature is that China is facing the pressure of real estate transformation, and the momentum of domestic demand is changing. Shen Minggao, Global Chief Economist of GF Securities, said at the International Financial Forum (IFF) Greater Bay Area Report held on August 29 that changes in domestic demand and global changes superimpose together, which together constitute the current macroeconomic situation. He believes that such an environment is also where the potential of manufacturing upgrades lies. The next ten years will also be a key decade for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to give full play to the advantages and potential of the manufacturing industry.

From the perspective of the global economic situation, since the end of World War II, the rise of countries has not broken the power of the cycle. The global economy generally fluctuates cyclically. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gone through a complete cycle of about 80 years. During this period, the United States has experienced 7 significant recessions and long recoveries. The average recession duration is 10 months, and the recovery and expansion average. Lasted 63 months. In the case of advanced economies, its importance to global growth has declined considerably and is likely to continue to decline. In terms of consumption, the proportion of household consumption in the G20 developed economies has dropped from more than 86% before 2004 to 70.5% in 2021. In terms of imports by various countries, the proportion of US imports in the world has dropped from 18.9% to 13%, Germany has dropped from 10.7% to 6.3%, and the proportion of capital goods imports in developed countries has been low for a long time. Such growth has driven the upgrading of manufacturing in emerging markets. limited effect.

Judging from the domestic economic situation, my country's post-real estate economic period is coming. Before the Asian financial crisis, my country's economic growth was relatively independent of exports and real estate. After joining the WTO, my country's export growth has been faster than nominal GDP growth for six consecutive years, with an average annual increase of 12.9 percentage points. Since 1998, the growth rate of real estate investment has been higher than the nominal GDP growth rate for 17 consecutive years, with an average annual increase of 9.1 percentage points.

"Export and real estate are my country's two major growth engines, and the development of manufacturing is also one of the main driving forces for my country's growth, but its growth overlaps with the export and real estate cycles. Although my country still has a lot of room for urbanization, real estate and its chain are the most important part of my country's growth. The era of unconventional development of the main growth drivers may be coming to an end.” Shen Minggao believes that my country is about to enter the post-real estate economy period, and the obvious signs include: first, the growth rate of real estate investment continues to be lower than the growth rate of nominal GDP; second, my country’s housing investment accounts for The proportion of GDP is likely to decline, and will approach the peak level of about 8% in major powers.

In Shen Minggao's view, the logic of my country's economic growth has changed, moderate de-realization, seize new opportunities for direct financing in the credit downturn cycle, and improve the ability to dispose of distressed assets. In the future, we need to pay attention to large consumption, deploy long-board industries, and invest in industrial chains. Longer businesses, including industries that take advantage of scale, innovation, or both.

"The top ten industries in the world, ranked according to their market value estimates, are financial services, construction, real estate, e-commerce, life and health insurance, IT, food, oil and gas, automobiles and telecommunications. Among them, IT and automobiles also have a track record. Advantages and industrial scale advantages." In Shen Minggao's view, in the macro environment of insufficient international aggregate demand and domestic real estate kinetic energy transformation, maintaining the proportion of manufacturing in GDP has become an important opportunity and challenge for my country's economic development.

In this regard, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plays an important role. Shen Minggao analyzed that the main advantage of the manufacturing industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area lies in the downstream, while the proportion of the midstream manufacturing industry is relatively low, and whether the midstream manufacturing industry can rise will directly affect the international trade competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In terms of the number of scientific researchers and R&D investment, Shenzhen in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has taken the lead in the world, and it is the potential for the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the post-real estate era.

Obviously, the country and the cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have recognized this.

In June this year, the State Council issued the "Guangzhou Nansha Comprehensive Plan for Deepening Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Comprehensive Cooperation Facing the World", which clearly supports building Nansha into a major strategic platform based on the Bay Area, cooperating with Hong Kong and Macao, and facing the world. Nansha District has become an important development of Guangzhou. growth pole. As one of the regions with the highest degree of openness and the strongest economic vitality in my country, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area carries the important mission of transforming enterprises in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to the direction of intelligent manufacturing. important strategic position.

In August of this year, the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government issued the "Guangzhou Action Plan for Promoting the Integrated Development of the Innovation Chain and Industrial Chain (2022-2025)", proposing to adhere to the industry first, the manufacturing industry to establish a city, and to put the foundation of the development of the real economy on innovation , to open up the path of "science and technology, technology productization, product industrialization, and industrial capitalization", and promote the mutual promotion of the construction of a strong city with scientific and technological innovation and a strong city with advanced manufacturing.

"Under the transformation of kinetic energy, Nansha's economy has also ushered in new opportunities." Shen Minggao took Nansha as an example to analyze the source of driving force for the development of its manufacturing industry: First, the added value of Nansha's secondary industry accounts for 41.1% of the region's GDP, and it is more important in automobiles. The manufacturing sector has an absolute advantage, with automobiles accounting for 48.7% of the region's total manufacturing output value. In addition, Nansha also has a certain layout in the fields of electrical equipment, chemical products, and electronic equipment. Second, Nansha is gathering regional venture capital and venture capital sources. From the perspective of the number of venture capital institutions and the target management scale of funds, 58.4% of Guangzhou's venture capital institutions and 75.5% of venture capital funds are concentrated in Nansha and Huangpu District (including high-tech zones and economic development zones).

"The agglomeration of venture capital and venture capital can not only attract high-tech enterprises to settle in, but also raise the level of regional growth. From 2015 to 2020, the cumulative growth rate of the number of high-tech enterprises in Nansha District of Guangzhou reached 878.9%. In 2020, the research and development of Nansha District The intensity (that is, the ratio of R&D expenditure to GDP) is 0.6 percentage points higher than that of Guangzhou as a whole." Shen Minggao said that "technology + capital" is significantly enhancing Nansha's growth momentum. Maintaining the proportion of the manufacturing industry in GDP and passing through the painful period of growth momentum transformation will force and promote the high-quality development of my country's economy and enterprises. Now is the best period for the rise of world-class enterprises in my country.