General

Since the beginning of this year, China's two major international trade centers, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, have been affected by the epidemic, but the foreign trade industry still shows strong resilience. In May this year, my country's export data rebounded beyond expectations, with exports of 1.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3 %, becoming a bright color of China's economy under the shadow of the epidemic. Especially the export data of high value-added products such as automobiles and mobile phones are dazzling, indicating that the upgrading of export structure is accelerating.

But at the same time, there are discussions that some orders will be diverted to Southeast Asian countries. What cannot be ignored is that the current foreign trade situation is complex and changeable, and some international trade companies are experiencing declining orders, rising costs, and declining profits.

Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea transfer orders worth about 72 billion US dollars a year from China in the four categories of shoes and clothing, furniture, electrical machinery and communications, accounting for about 16.3% of the total exports of the corresponding categories to Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines have undertaken about 53 billion US dollars of orders, of which Vietnam has undertaken about 45 billion US dollars of orders. However, while taking orders, Southeast Asian countries have also expanded the import of raw materials and spare parts from China, and China's supply chain advantages are still obvious.

"China may become the world's largest auto exporter." Xiang Songzuo, a well-known economist and president of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Financial Research Institute, said that China's status as a manufacturing power will not be replaced by Vietnam, India, etc. However, the normal management of international exchanges needs to be resumed as soon as possible.

Export data rebounded more than expected

Zhejiang Duoman Trading Co., Ltd., located in Yiwu, has been deeply involved in the Southeast Asian market for more than 10 years. It is a daily necessities supplier for large supermarkets in the Philippines and other countries. Xu Ruoying, the general manager of the company, has been working at a much faster pace recently because of the large number of orders.

"This year's orders have increased by about 30% compared to previous years." Xu Ruoying said in an interview with reporters, "The Philippines and Malaysia and other countries have liberalized the epidemic control, and the shipment volume is more than when the epidemic was blocked."

At the same time as the layout of 2B business, Zhejiang Duoman Trading Company is also expanding overseas warehouse business. Xu Ruoying said that the company's overseas warehouse is a service provider for e-commerce platforms Shopee and Lazada, and one-click delivery. "The shipment volume of overseas warehouses has also increased this year."

The increase in export orders of Zhejiang Duoman Trading Co., Ltd. is a microcosm of the recovery of foreign trade exports in Yiwu and even Zhejiang this year. From January to May this year, Zhejiang Province exported 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, Yiwu's foreign trade export value from January to May this year was 167.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%.

In Hebei, Hebei Unide Energy Saving Technology Co., Ltd., which is engaged in the import and export of thermal insulation materials, has achieved a year-on-year increase of 41.2% in the export value of FOB transactions since the beginning of this year. Liu Xiaoming, the company's executive president, told reporters, "As the price of freight has increased nearly 10 times, if the export value includes shipping prices, the increase may be even greater."

In Liu Xiaoming's view, under the influence of the epidemic, countries will increase investment in infrastructure construction in order to stimulate the economy. The company's product insulation materials are basic building materials and will usher in a new opportunity. According to reports, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian markets are the main export destinations of the company, and the annual growth rate of the Vietnamese market is no less than 40%. At the same time, considering that the business in the industrial construction field will not continue, the company began to explore the civilian market in the United States and Australia this year.

In Shenzhen, which was hit by the epidemic in March this year, export data has also recovered. From January to May, Shenzhen’s imports and exports were 1,308.91 billion yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year. Among them, the data in May recovered, and Shenzhen’s foreign trade exports were 161.86 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1%.

Even in Shanghai, which has been greatly affected by the epidemic this year, exports are currently recovering. Shanghai's foreign trade has entered a rapid recovery track. Since June, Shanghai Customs has accepted an average of about 60,000 entry and exit declaration forms at the port, which is 3.44 times higher than the lowest value in mid-April, and has recovered to 99.17% of the same period in 2021. According to the latest data forecast, in June, Shanghai port imports and exports (imports and exports carried out by enterprises in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country through Shanghai ports) are expected to be basically flat year-on-year, and Shanghai citywide imports and exports (imports and exports carried out by Shanghai enterprises) are expected to achieve positive growth.

The export of high value-added products grew rapidly

Although labor-intensive export orders such as clothing, shoes and hats are also picking up, since the beginning of this year, the types of commodities that have increased rapidly in my country's exports are high-tech and high-value-added products such as automobiles and mobile phones.

In June, auto companies exported 249,000 vehicles, a record high, a month-on-month increase of 1.8% and a year-on-year increase of 57.4%. Looking at the entire first half of the year, auto companies exported 1.218 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%. Among them, a total of 202,000 new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times, accounting for 16.6% of the total vehicle exports. Shanghai is China's largest auto import and export center, accounting for about 70% of the country's auto foreign trade.

According to the production and sales report released by SAIC (17.250, -0.18, -1.03%), in May and June this year, SAIC's overall overseas sales were 86,000 and 84,000 units, an increase of 97% and 59% year-on-year respectively. In the first half of this year, SAIC's cumulative overseas sales reached 381,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%. SAIC Motor previously stated that its overseas vehicle sales in 2022 will strive to exceed the "mark" of 800,000 units.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said that Shanghai's auto exports were severely damaged during the epidemic and are currently recovering. It is expected that my country's auto exports will continue to recover throughout the year. "The main reason is that foreign auto production chains are blocked, but The demand is there again.”

Mobile phones are also the products with the fastest export growth this year. Data from Shanghai Customs shows that in the first five months of this year, Shanghai's mobile phone exports reached 23.58 billion yuan, an increase of 129.7%. Hangzhou import and export data also show that in the first five months of this year, Zhejiang Province's mobile phone exports were 4.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%.

Transsion Holdings (78.670, -2.24, -2.77%), known as the "King of African Mobile Phones", recently said in an institutional survey that emerging market countries are still in the development trend of "switching from functional phones to smart phones". The smartphone market has great potential. On the other hand, the company continues to "go out of Africa", and is expanding outward in addition to South Asian countries.

It is worth mentioning that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which came into effect on January 1 this year, has also further enhanced the competitiveness of my country's export products. Nanjing Customs and the Jiangsu Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade recently announced that in the first half of this year, the export value of RCEP visas in Jiangsu Province reached 19.5 billion yuan, ranking first in the country. A total of about 55,700 RCEP certificates of origin were issued. It is expected that relevant enterprises will enjoy The tariff reductions of other RCEP member countries exceeded 150 million yuan.

Some enterprises encounter "order dilemma"

Although my country's foreign trade exports have achieved good results this year, due to the impact of the epidemic and geopolitical conflicts, the global economic recovery is fragile, the international market demand is shrinking, and the global industrial chain supply chain system is adjusted, resulting in localization, regionalization, The situation of nearshoring transfer, some international trade companies can hardly be optimistic.

Xu Haitao said that due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai this year, the company's foreign dealers lost a lot of customers. "It is difficult to get lost customers to come back. Some of the company's core customers have already placed some orders to competitors. Shanghai does not have a cost advantage, but has Quality or service advantage, once customers accept competitors' products and services, it is very difficult for us to win them back."

Xu Haitao said that in the field of electromechanical equipment, the company mainly targets second-tier brands in Europe and the United States. In addition to domestic companies, its competitors mainly come from Europe, America, Turkey and India. All electromechanical equipment needs to be after-sale. "For example, it cost only 1 million yuan to buy equipment in China, and 5 million yuan to buy equipment in Europe and America, but because of the epidemic situation, Chinese companies could not sell on-site, some high-end customers turned to European and American equipment, and customers with lower budgets turned to India and Turkey. "

He revealed that the original target for this year was a growth rate of 50%, but it gradually recovered at the end of June, which is equivalent to removing a quarter. At present, we can only lower the target and strive to be the same as last year. If done well, the growth rate can reach 20%. , equivalent to at least a 30% reduction in growth rate.

Similarly, the person in charge of a company engaged in machinery export in the Pearl River Delta also told reporters that since the first half of this year, the business volume has dropped by 30%. , needs to be shown to people, I used to frequently participate in domestic and foreign exhibitions, but now there is no way to show it face-to-face with foreign customers for almost three years, which is not conducive to selling new products and developing new customers.”

Solving the predicament requires the right medicine

"Go overseas to grab orders, and you will come back!" Recently, Haining City, Zhejiang Province put forward five major measures to set up a 24-hour combat liaison group, and the secretary and mayor will be in command, unified command and coordination, to solve the worries of enterprises going overseas, and encourage enterprises to "be able to go abroad". To ensure the smooth exit of the company and the worry-free return to China, all companies with foreign trade business, the air ticket costs incurred by going to foreign exhibitions or visiting customers will be subsidized by Haining City Finance by 50%, and a single company can enjoy a maximum of 50% million.

This policy has been praised by foreign trade companies. Behind the introduction of the policy is the urgent need of enterprises for market development and survival and development. Local governments have taken various measures to help foreign trade enterprises solve their difficulties, and some results have been achieved, but the key is to identify the focus and prescribe the right medicine.

Xiang Songzuo said that restoring the normalized management of exchanges at home and abroad as soon as possible is the biggest priority. "If the country's doors are basically closed for a longer period of time, it will be extremely unfavorable to my country's exports and economic development, because overseas has basically been liberalized, and now many overseas orders are turning to Southeast Asia and other regions, if this trend cannot end as soon as possible , that would be a very big blow to China's economy and exports."

Enterprises are also making great efforts. "No matter whether we are optimistic about the prospects of foreign trade, as a company, we need to actively respond to enable the company to grow." Xu Haitao said that the way to deal with challenges includes increasing product research and development, laying out sales channels, etc. Before 2020, the company Customers are mainly end users, and the profit margin of end customers is relatively high. At that time, employees could go out for after-sales service, but employees could not go out due to the impact of the epidemic. The company is currently expanding the agent business with low profit margins on the sales side. The oriented foreign trade sales model has turned to a dealer-oriented sales model, and the model of exclusive agency is adopted. "Not only the marketing side is adjusted, but the product line is also being adjusted. Some non-standard models have to be adjusted to the standard because they do not have service capabilities. Models, even if the added value is low, can be sold in volume, reducing the pressure on after-sales.”

"In recent years, the state has introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade and exports in response to external factors such as trade barriers and regional protectionism, and has introduced and implemented a number of policies to support small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises." Liu Xiaoming said, " We hope these policies will continue to be implemented."

"Last year, the local government took the lead, and our unit initiated the establishment of the Guangyang District Foreign Trade Enterprise Association, where everyone can help each other. For example, the association can come forward to negotiate with the logistics company 'the freight from the factory to the port'. If a container saves 500 yuan in freight , 1,000 containers can save 500,000 yuan." Liu Xiaoming said.

According to Xiang Songzuo, the transfer of some industries in my country to Southeast Asian countries is similar to the transfer of real estate industries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan to China in the 1970s and 1980s. This will stimulate the continuous upgrading of China's industries and move towards the mid-to-high end, which is an inevitable process of economic development. "Although it will put pressure on China's exports in the short term, many companies feel that orders have decreased or the growth rate of orders has slowed down, but It will also promote enterprise transformation in the long run. At present, many enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are continuously increasing their transformation efforts."

"China's status as a major manufacturing country will not be replaced by Vietnam, India, etc. The reason is very simple. First, after more than 40 years of rapid development, China has a very complete and stable industrial chain, which cannot be easily replaced by other countries. Second, China The quality of the labor force, especially the quality and ability of industrial workers, has the highest average level in developing countries." Xiang Songzuo told reporters.

Wang Xin, executive chairman of Shenzhen Cross-border E-commerce Association, believes that cross-border e-commerce has been thriving in the past few years, growing against the trend, and has played a major role in stabilizing foreign trade. In promoting the high-quality development of the cross-border e-commerce industry, we can focus on the following points:

First of all, the labor cost is increasing year by year, which has a great impact on the survival pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises. It is hoped that more substantial tax reduction and exemption policies will be introduced. Second, in the process of going overseas, small and medium-sized enterprises cannot cope with various uncertain factors Coming impacts, such as international trade rules, tax laws, patent intellectual property rights, logistics, etc., I hope that the government and industry associations will increase the service cultivation for overseas expansion of enterprises, so as to prevent enterprises from becoming cannon fodder when they go overseas, and effectively solve the risks of enterprises going overseas; The transformation of suitable traditional foreign trade enterprises to cross-border e-commerce is no longer limited to the trade rules of traditional foreign trade. The government should increase the guidance and incubation of the cross-border e-commerce industry, and give certain rewards to customers who occupy the market; in addition, Increase the global resource distribution at the national level, especially the layout of overseas warehouses and overseas marketing networks, to solve the situation that Chinese enterprises are controlled by others; finally, increase the investment of industrial funds in foreign trade enterprises, deploy domestic and foreign industrial chains, and limit the time limit Banks are required to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, so as to provide assistance in a timely manner.