General

According to import and export data, China's total import and export value in the first eight months of this year was 27.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1% over the same period last year.

Analysts interviewed believe that the import and export data in August shows that China's foreign trade has maintained a steady growth, while the growth pressure is also increasing, especially the impact of foreign demand contraction and foreign inflation on China's foreign trade is accelerating, and the next step to stabilize foreign trade needs to be taken More effective measures will help the economy recover steadily in the third quarter.

In the face of pressure and challenges, Assistant Minister of Commerce Li Fei introduced at the State Council's regular policy briefing on September 5 that the Ministry of Commerce will take multiple measures to stabilize foreign trade, including accelerating the promotion of new cross-border e-commerce and market procurement trade methods. The development of new business models, active support for the export of key products such as new energy vehicles, smooth channels for foreign trade companies to capture orders, provide more convenience for companies to participate in exhibitions and negotiation, and help companies improve their ability to respond to risks such as exchange rates.

Growth highlights are becoming more and more obvious

According to import and export data, China's total import and export value in August was 3.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 2.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%; imports were 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. From the perspective of the first eight months, the growth rate of imports and exports was 10.1%. Among them, exports were 15.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.2%; imports were 11.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

Li Kuiwen, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complex and severe foreign trade development environment, China has effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and has continued to introduce a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade to promote foreign trade to stabilize the market, expand its advantages and increase its growth. Vitality, import and export achieved steady growth in the first eight months.

Xia Rongbing, an assistant researcher at the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Academy of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview that the steady growth of foreign trade in the first eight months shows that the implementation of the previous policy of stabilizing foreign trade has been effective, and the resilience of foreign trade growth is further demonstrated. Specifically, against the backdrop of shrinking overseas demand and increasing inflationary pressure, foreign trade growth is greatly affected by price factors, and at the same time, it also benefits from factors such as the depreciation of the renminbi.

In the first eight months of this year, in addition to the steady growth in scale, the foreign trade import and export also became more and more obvious, and the structure was further optimized. According to the observation of import and export data, from the perspective of trade structure, China’s general trade import and export increased by 14.1% year-on-year, accounting for 64.3% of the total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year; from the perspective of market structure, China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” The total import and export of countries along the route increased by 20.2% year-on-year, driving the overall import and export growth by 6.9 percentage points. The total value of China's trade with ASEAN, its largest trading partner, increased by 14% year-on-year, accounting for 15% of China's total foreign trade value. From the perspective of market players, The total import and export value of private enterprises increased by 14.9%, accounting for more than half of China's total foreign trade value, reaching 50.1%. The total export value of automobiles increased by 57.6% year-on-year, and the total export value of labor-intensive products increased by 14.1% year-on-year.

Stability and quality improvement still need to be strengthened

"In the third and fourth quarters, it is still important to stabilize foreign trade. Stability is the top priority of foreign trade policy." Xia Rongbing said that from the volume and price list of key import and export commodities released by the General Administration of Customs from January to August, The basic feature of major imported commodities is that the quantity decreases year-on-year but the amount increases year-on-year, or the year-on-year decrease in the quantity is greater than the decrease in the amount. The main export products also basically conform to this feature. "This shows that global inflation has been relatively serious, and it also shows that the growth of foreign trade in the first eight months was greatly affected by price factors, and the pull of real demand on foreign trade growth weakened."

According to import and export data, judging from the situation of major export products in July and August, the international market demand showed a "double drop" in consumer products and industrial raw materials, which indicates that the world may face the risk of a synchronized economic recession has gradually emerged , and will bring more pressure to the steady growth of China's foreign trade.

Wang Jianhui, a senior industrial economics researcher, said that due to the frequent occurrence of the epidemic, the domestic production and distribution links are under increased pressure, while abroad, due to factors such as soaring energy prices and regional instability, demand growth has been curbed. The superposition of various internal and external problems has made the foreign trade situation even more severe, and it still takes hard work to achieve the stable growth of foreign trade throughout the year.

In terms of stabilizing foreign trade policies, Xia Rongbing believes that the country has successively introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade. While implementing policies and measures, all localities should focus on two aspects: First, private enterprises account for 60% of China's total export value. %. All localities should conduct in-depth research to timely understand and solve the actual difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises in foreign trade operations. Second, processing trade plays an important role in attracting employment and promoting domestic demand growth. Relevant localities should prevent the rapid decline of processing trade.

Wang Jianhui said that there are many factors that determine the growth of foreign trade. It is recommended to stabilize foreign trade from the overall situation, and to exert all-round efforts from epidemic prevention and control, the entire economic activities, production, logistics and other links to ensure the stable and smooth operation of all aspects of foreign trade development. At the same time, stabilizing foreign trade growth requires sufficient foresight.