General

 Recently, many places have introduced measures to promote the stability and improvement of foreign trade.

For example, Guangxi has introduced "26" policies and measures to continue to promote the steady growth of foreign trade and foreign investment, including providing a 0.5 percentage point interest margin discount for foreign currency loans to eligible international trade enterprises; Airfreight routes, and provide financial support to key enterprises that add new sea and air routes. The Sichuan Provincial Department of Commerce disclosed on September 9 that in order to minimize the impact of the epidemic and maintain the stability of the industrial chain, as of September 7, more than 500 international trade enterprises in Sichuan Province have achieved closed-loop production. Ningbo, Yiwu and other places in Zhejiang Province are of great reference for foreign trade companies to open charter flights to grab orders overseas or receive foreign businessmen to purchase in China.

"Since this year, the risks and challenges faced by my country's international trade have increased significantly, and the pressure to stabilize foreign trade has increased. In this regard, my country has issued several rounds of foreign trade stabilization policies and supporting measures. With the joint efforts of all parties, my country's foreign trade has shown strong resilience. ” Li Fei, Assistant Minister of Commerce, said recently.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, in the first eight months of this year, the total value of my country's international trade in goods imports and exports was 27.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Among them, exports were 15.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.2%; imports were 11.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the decline in exports in August was mainly due to the slowdown in external demand, the disturbance to the domestic supply chain and the high base in the same period last year.

Mingming believes that exports may maintain a certain growth rate in September, and the possibility of a rebound compared with August cannot be ruled out. However, from the perspective of the second half of the year, the center of export growth may show a gradual downward trend. There are three main reasons: first, the overall domestic situation has improved, and the supply chain will be repaired; second, the European energy crisis may cause its production capacity to be limited, and my country's exports can form a substitution effect; third, the high base effect will continue throughout the second half of the year. .

With the increase in the export base in the same period last year and the further impact of the overseas economic downturn on my country's exports, the export growth rate (in US dollars) in September may drop slightly to around 5%. However, it cannot be ruled out that there will be more than expected performance, mainly due to the strong reliance on "Made in China" in the overseas stagflation environment; in addition, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated to a certain extent since April, which will promote exports in the second half of the year. Finally, the recent policy of stabilizing foreign trade has continued to exert force, forming a certain supporting effect on exports.

In terms of imports, Wang Qing believes that as the domestic economy maintains the momentum of recovery, and the policies to stabilize investment and promote consumption increase, the improvement in domestic demand is expected to drive the marginal recovery of import demand.

It is expected that in September, the global manufacturing PMI of JPMorgan Chase will continue to be under pressure and fall below the line of prosperity and decline. In addition, in August and September 2021, the export value increased by 25.41% and 27.93% year-on-year, respectively, and the base rose slightly, which is bad for September's export growth.

"It is expected that under the background of the subsequent weak economic recovery, imports will likely gradually pick up; in terms of exports, in August, foreign trade continued to maintain double-digit growth, reflecting a strong ability to ensure supply, and my country's relative advantage in supply will become an important source of export resilience. ” said Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities.

Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in the first half of this year, net exports of goods and services drove GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 35.8%.

Wang Qing analyzed that in the first two months of the third quarter, the trade surplus continued to maintain a high level, and the year-on-year growth rate further expanded slightly. Combined with the forecast of foreign trade data in September, the driving rate of net exports to economic growth in the third quarter will still reach about 0.7 percentage points. However, with the GDP growth rate likely to improve substantially in the third quarter, the contribution rate of net exports to economic growth will drop to around 20%, which is still at a high level historically.