General

Recently, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics released import and export data showing that Guangdong, the "largest foreign trade province" for 36 consecutive years, accounted for 19.5% of the country's total import and export volume from January to July this year. Among them, in July, the total import and export volume of Guangdong accounted for 18.1% of the national proportion.

Combined with the past import and export data of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the total import and export volume of Guangdong’s foreign trade accounted for 40% of the country’s total. They accounted for 22% and 21.1% respectively.

On September 18, Chen Bo, executive director of the Free Trade Zone Research Center of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, said that if you only look at the monthly import and export data in July, short-term fluctuations do not represent major problems in a certain area. The main reason for the impact is the control of the epidemic. And the export structure is affected by seasonality, "there is no particularly big problem, very worrying reasons."

For example, he said that the fourth quarter is the consumption season in the West, so the Yangtze River Delta may ship a lot in the third quarter, such as "Yiwu small commodities", which may result in a little more exports from the Yangtze River Delta in the third quarter. On the other hand, in the Pearl River Delta, in addition to clothing, shoes and socks, it is more likely to be electronic products, and there is not such strong seasonal data fluctuations.

"If we talk about short-term fluctuations, then there will be no significant impact on the long-term." Chen Bo said.

Wei Fulei, deputy director of the New Energy and Low-Carbon Development Research Center of the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said that as the frontier of reform and opening up, Guangdong Province is the province with the earliest start and fastest growth in my country's foreign trade. At the same time, with the development process of reform and opening up, foreign trade in other provinces has gradually developed, and it is normal that the proportion of Guangdong's total imports and exports in the country has begun to decline.

He also pointed out that although the total import and export value of Guangdong Province is still growing, the growth rate has been significantly lower than the national level (from January to July 2022, the total import and export value of Guangdong Province will increase by 2.4%, and the national increase will be 10.4%). He believes that the reasons for this result can be attributed to two aspects. On the one hand, it is the impact of the repeated impact of the epidemic;

Among them, in terms of industrial transfer and transformation, from the perspective of factor cost, whether it is compared with the central and western regions of China or Southeast Asian countries, Guangdong Province no longer has an advantage. The original labor-intensive industries in Guangdong Province have already begun to transfer outward. In recent years, Sino-US trade frictions have further accelerated this process.

"However, the industry of Guangdong Province is very resilient, and the slowdown in foreign trade growth does not mean that economic growth will also slow down." Wei Fulei believes that although foreign trade has always been the engine of Guangdong's economic growth, in the process of industrial transfer, Guangdong Province's The industry is also transforming, especially the industries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are upgrading to the upstream of the industrial chain and high-end links. Moreover, the main target of the products produced by enterprises in these fields is not export, but import substitution.

According to the import and export data of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, from January to July 2022, the province's manufacturing investment increased by 19.0%, of which high-tech manufacturing investment increased by 36.8% and advanced manufacturing investment increased by 27.6%.

"Guangdong Province's industrial development momentum is still strong," said Wei Fulei.