General

Are Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam capable of replacing China as the new "world factory"? This is one of the focus topics of overseas public opinion in the first half of this year. "It is difficult to replace" has become the consensus of the industry.

Cross-border industrial chain, as the production relationship formed by economic activities in the upstream and downstream of the industry and between regions and countries under the international division of labor system, has been evolving and changing since the first industrial revolution. The spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the increasingly complex international situation have accelerated the overall process of a new round of cross-border industrial chain transfer.

Watson & Band Import and Export Data Observation reports that the "Research Report on Changes in my country's Cross-border Industrial Chain and New Comparative Advantages in the Digital Trade Era" released by the Cross-border E-commerce Research Center of Ali Research Institute at the 2022 China International Service Trade Fair shows that multi-directional Migration, disturbance of non-economic factors and differentiated transfer have become the characteristics of a new round of global cross-border industrial chain changes. In this context, although Vietnam's industrial chain and China's cross-border industrial chain coexist with competition and complementarity, it is still difficult to replace China's important position in the global value chain. In addition, in the era of digital trade, China's cross-border industrial chain is ushering in an important period of opportunity for the establishment of new comparative advantages.

ASEAN countries: Industrial development presents structural adjustment

According to the characteristics of the new round of cross-border industrial chain changes, first of all, the direction of cross-border industrial chain transfer has changed from one-way to multi-directional. On the one hand, labor-intensive industries such as clothing, shoes and hats have turned to Southeast Asian countries; on the other hand, there has been "near-shore migration" and some high-end manufacturing industries have returned to developed countries. Secondly, there is a passive change component disturbed by non-economic factors, the value supply chain may weaken or even deviate from the efficiency principle of traditional industry transfer, and the phenomenon of "friend-ship outsourcing" and "near-shoring outsourcing" is also emerging. Finally, the industry chain has undergone upstream and downstream differentiation changes, changing the traditional full-link change paradigm, and the degree of industry segmentation and production link refinement has been continuously improved.

Since its establishment in 1999, Alibaba International Station has covered 41 industries and conducted cross-border business for 26 million merchants in more than 200 countries and regions around the world. By analyzing the export situation of upstream and downstream products in key industries such as clothing and consumer electronics on Alibaba International Station from 2019 to 2022, the report found that Ali International Station's exports of clothing and consumer electronics upstream and downstream products from Southeast Asian countries have been significantly differentiated in many periods. . For example, from the second quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, the export of intermediate garments to Southeast Asia was faster than that of finished products, and a similar situation occurred in consumer electronics in 2019.

Ouyang Cheng, vice president of Ali Research Institute and director of Ali Cross-border E-commerce Research Center, believes that the growth rate of Chinese enterprises' exports of apparel and consumer electronics upstream and downstream products to Southeast Asian countries on the international station platform is differentiated, which reflects the local national industry to a certain extent. The structural adjustment of development, that is, intermediate products and raw materials have increasingly become important products imported from China. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported that in 2021, China's textile exports to the 10 ASEAN countries will be 49.12 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, far exceeding the 4% year-on-year growth rate to the United States. Among them, clothing intermediates and raw materials represented by textile fabrics and yarns accounted for more than 80%.

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, from 2017 to 2021, the average growth rate of the international station's exports to major countries will remain at a high level. Among them, the average growth rate of exports to the United States and South Korea exceeds the overall growth rate of the platform, and developed countries and regions such as Europe and the United States are still the main markets for China's cross-border e-commerce exports. However, a vertical comparison of the growth rate of international exports to various countries in recent years shows that ASEAN countries have become the most eye-catching high-growth markets for international exports in recent years. In 2021, the growth rate of international exports to Malaysia, India and the Philippines will increase by 42%. %, 32% and 30%.

China: It is difficult to replace its position in the global value chain

According to research results previously released by the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 53% of Vietnam’s industries form a competitive relationship with Chinese domestic industries such as general production transfer, and 42% form complementary relationships such as cross-border value chain trade with China’s domestic industries. . However, from the perspective of China's industry, China still has an overwhelming industrial advantage over Vietnam.

"The survey results show that China's garment industry currently has the advantage of raw material origin, accounting for more than 70% of the world, and has the international leading advantages in spinning, weaving, printing and dyeing independent technology and equipment, as well as flexible supply and small order quick return based on a complete link system. Production capacity." Ouyang Cheng said that the superposition of the "one-hour parts matching circle" capability that can be achieved in the consumer electronics industry makes it difficult for Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam to replace China's important position in the global value chain.

The Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report revealed more information by comparing the cross-border e-commerce export of the international station with the same type of products exported by general trade. From the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2022, the average growth rate of clothing raw materials in customs general trade (42.2%) was higher than the average growth rate of finished clothing exports (10.4%), and the difference between the average growth rates of the two exports was 31.8%. , there is a differentiation trend.

Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported that during the same period, the average growth rate of clothing raw materials exports at the international station (45.2%) was close to that of customs general trade exports, but the growth rate of finished clothing exports (22.8%) was significantly faster than that of customs general trade exports. The difference between the two growth rates (22.4%) is smaller than the general trade export level of the customs data. The contrast in the consumer electronics industry is even more striking.

It can be seen that for the clothing and consumer electronics industries, the degree of industrial chain differentiation through cross-border e-commerce online exports is weaker than the degree of industrial differentiation in general trade with offline as the main export form. In addition, the report found that the cross-border e-commerce model represented by the international station can help merchants to alleviate the impact of rising costs and prices of raw materials and labor to a certain extent.

"From a practical point of view, the cross-border e-commerce platform represented by Ali International Station has a more complete new infrastructure business and trade infrastructure, has a full-process cross-border digital service system, precipitated the cross-border business market insight and judgment tools, and built a business The integrity evaluation system of market entities, etc., can help Chinese foreign trade enterprises to continuously improve their digital capabilities and enhance the certainty of going overseas, thereby establishing a new comparative advantage in cross-border trade in the digital age." Ouyang Cheng believes that the transformation of global trade digitalization has become China's cross-border trade. The establishment of new comparative advantages in the environmental industry chain provides soil and opportunities. The advanced practice and capacity reserve of China's cross-border e-commerce platform will provide important support for more industries in China to participate in international competition and cooperation, accelerate globalization, and contribute to China's construction of a new development pattern and high-quality development.