General

The international trade import and export data for September will be released soon. Experts generally believe that the overall expectation is stable and the overall slowdown does not hide structural bright spots.

"Under the background of the higher base and the slowdown of external demand in the previous year, it is expected that the growth rate of US dollar-denominated exports will drop to about 5% in September." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that on the one hand, the correlation with my country's foreign trade The relatively high growth rate of South Korea's international trade imports and exports fell sharply in September. According to South Korea's statistics, from September 1 to September 20, the growth rate of South Korea's imports from China dropped from 14.2% in the previous month to 3.1%. On the other hand, in the first 20 days of September, the container throughput of the eight major domestic coastal hub ports has turned into negative growth. This indicates that as the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States intensifies, external demand is weakening in a trend, and the price increase factor that had a greater role in promoting the growth of exports in the early stage is also weakening.

Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that although affected by weather factors such as typhoons, the port container throughput turned negative year-on-year in the first ten days of September, but the throughput has turned positive year-on-year in the middle and late ten days, which means that international trade shipments have recovered to a certain extent. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of US dollar-denominated exports in September may be around 7%.

Mingming also believes that under the influence of weak external demand and the high base of the same period last year, my country's export growth center will fall, and the fall in external demand in Europe and the United States may put greater pressure on my country's exports of consumer goods and intermediate goods, but the structural highlights of exports remain. Worth watching. Specifically, under the RCEP framework, the member states' demand for chemicals, base metal products and textile products may bring new growth to my country's exports; under the background of the European energy crisis, the chemical and metal fields affected by energy costs may It will usher in a potential export substitution opportunity for my country.

Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that overseas supply is sluggish, and my country's supply has a comparative advantage, which makes my country's international trade exports show strong resilience, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about export performance. In addition, the depreciation effect of the exchange rate at the end of the third quarter re-emerged, which helped the reading of RMB denominated to rise. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in RMB denominated in September will be 13.5%.

Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that the export value in September may be under pressure slightly year-on-year, but it still faces support and maintains resilience. He believes that there are two supporting factors for exports in the fourth quarter. One is the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent, which is beneficial to the year-on-year year-on-year of my country's export value; Increase the demand for our goods.

In terms of imports, Wang Qing said that the domestic economic recovery will drive import demand for some bulk commodities, but the recent weakening of international bulk commodity prices will have a certain pull-down effect on the growth rate of imports. It is expected that the growth rate of imports in dollar terms in September will remain at a low level of around 2%.

Zhang Yu, assistant to the director of Huachuang Securities Research Institute and chief macro analyst, also believes that "it is expected that the growth rate of imports in September may still be hovering at a low level. On the one hand, the import sub-item of PMI in September recorded 48.1, a slight rebound from the previous value of 47.8. On the other hand, South Korea’s exports to China have recorded negative growth for three consecutive months, which also reflects weak import demand from China.”

Wang Qing said that my country's international trade exports are still expected to maintain positive growth in the fourth quarter. In terms of imports, driven by the continuous recovery of the domestic economy, my country's import demand for bulk commodities will increase, but the downward trend in international bulk commodity prices may have a certain impact on the import value, and the growth rate of import value in the fourth quarter will remain low. single-digit level. Comprehensive export and import data, it is expected that my country's trade surplus will remain at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter, continuing to form a strong support for my country's balance of payments and the RMB exchange rate.