General

Recently, many regions have introduced measures to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade.

For example, Guangxi has introduced "26 Article" policies and measures to continuously promote the steady growth of foreign investment in international trade, including 0.5% interest margin discount for foreign currency loans to eligible international trade enterprises; Promote the smooth and smooth transport of foreign trade goods, orderly increase the number of sea and air routes, and provide financial support to key enterprises that have newly added sea and air routes. Sichuan Provincial Department of Commerce disclosed on September 9 that, in order to minimize the impact of the epidemic and maintain the stability of the industrial chain, as of September 7, more than 500 foreign trade enterprises in Sichuan had achieved closed-loop production. Ningbo, Yiwu and other places in Zhejiang Province can be used for reference in opening charter flights for international trade enterprises to seize orders at sea or receive foreign businessmen to purchase in China.

"Since this year, China's foreign trade has faced significantly more risks and challenges, and the pressure to stabilize foreign trade has increased. To this end, China has introduced several rounds of policies and supporting measures to stabilize foreign trade. With the joint efforts of all parties, China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience." Assistant Minister of Commerce Li Fei said recently.

The data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7 showed that in the first eight months of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 27.3 trillion yuan, up 10.1% year on year. Among them, the export reached 15.48 trillion yuan, up 14.2%; Imports reached 11.82 trillion yuan, up 5.2%.

Mingming, the chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the decline of exports in August was mainly affected by the slowdown of foreign demand, the disruption of domestic supply chain and the high base in the same period last year.

Mingming believes that exports in September may maintain a certain growth rate, which does not rule out the possibility of rebounding from August. However, in the second half of the year, the center of international trade export growth may show a gradual downward trend. There are mainly three reasons: First, the overall situation in China has improved, and the supply chain will be repaired; Second, the European energy crisis may lead to the limitation of its production capacity, and China's exports can form a substitution effect; Third, the high base effect will continue throughout the second half of the year.

Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that with the increase of the export base in the same period last year and the further reflection of the impact of the overseas economic downturn on China's exports, the export growth rate (in dollars) in September may slightly drop to about 5%. However, it is not ruled out that there will be more than expected performance, mainly due to the strong dependence on "Made in China" in the overseas stagflation environment; In addition, since April, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated to a certain extent, which has promoted the export in the second half of the year; Finally, the recent policy of stabilizing foreign trade has continued to exert its strength, forming a certain supporting effect on international trade exports.

In terms of imports, Wang Qing believed that, as the domestic economy maintained its recovery momentum, the policy of stabilizing investment and promoting consumption increased, the improvement of domestic demand is expected to drive the marginal recovery of import demand.

Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that it is expected that the probability rate of global manufacturing PMI of JPMorgan Chase will continue to fall under pressure and fall below the boom and bust line in September, which is bad for the CRB index in September on a year-on-year basis. In terms of quantity and price, it is bad for the export amount in September on a year-on-year basis. In addition, the year-on-year growth of the export amount in August and September 2021 was 25.41% and 27.93%, respectively, which was a small increase in the base and bad for the export growth in September.

"It is expected that under the background of the subsequent weak economic recovery, the import probability rate will gradually recover; on the export side, in August, the foreign trade will still maintain a double-digit growth, reflecting a strong supply assurance response capability, and the relative advantage of China's supply will become an important source of export resilience." Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said.

Zhang Bin, Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in the first half of this year, net exports of goods and services drove GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points, contributing 35.8%.

Wang Qing analyzed that in the first two months of the third quarter, the trade surplus continued to maintain a high level, and the year-on-year growth rate further expanded slightly. According to the foreign trade data in September, the pulling rate of net exports on economic growth in the third quarter will still reach about 0.7 percentage points. However, with the substantial improvement of GDP growth in the third quarter, the contribution of net exports to economic growth will drop to about 20%, which is still at a high level in history.