General

China's customs data for the first three quarters are released. On October 24, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export value was 31.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased by about 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous eight months. Experts said that the data reflected that China's imports and exports were greatly affected by the European and American economies, but under the dual efforts of domestic policies and markets, China was still confident to overcome the pressure of foreign markets and would not be divorced from the safety tolerance. It was difficult for imports and exports to plunge significantly in the fourth quarter.

The growth rate in the first three quarters was slightly lower than that in the first eight months

According to customs data, China's total import and export value in the first three quarters of this year was 31.11 trillion yuan, up 9.9% over the same period last year. Among them, the export was 17.67 trillion yuan, up 13.8%; Import reached 13.44 trillion yuan, up 5.2%; The trade surplus was 4.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.7%.

"The import and export data in the first three quarters reflect that China's import and export pressure is still high, and the growth momentum has been weakened." Peng Bo, a researcher from the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the RMB exchange rate fell rapidly in September and October, which played a significant role in supporting exports. However, exports were still in a downward trend, "indicating a significant decline in the absorption capacity of the international market".

According to customs data, China's total import and export value in September was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3%. According to customs data, the export was 2.19 trillion yuan, up 10.7%; Imports reached 1.62 trillion yuan, up 5.2%; The trade surplus was 573.57 billion yuan, an increase of 29.9%.

In the first eight months of this year, China's total import and export value was 27.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1% over the same period last year. According to customs data, the total import and export value in August was 3.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%.

"In the first three quarters, the growth rate of China's import and export decreased by about 0.2 percentage points compared with that in the first eight months. In September, China's export fell by 3.5 percentage points compared with that in August, reflecting that the international market was under great pressure; the recovery of imports by 0.6 percentage points partly reflected that the domestic economy had improved." Peng Bo said.

Under pressure, the European and American economies have experienced substantial recession

Will the decline in the absorption capacity of the international market affect the import and export performance in the fourth quarter? Peng Bo believes that the current situation in Europe is intensifying, and the Russian Ukrainian conflict is likely to continue to intensify and will continue for a long time. "This has a dual impact on China's exports. On the one hand, the demand for China is increased due to the obstruction of normal production in Europe, and on the other hand, the demand for Chinese goods is reduced due to the decline of European economy." Peng Bo said, "Under the two effects, the growth rate may slow down."

In addition, Peng Bo pointed out that the instability of the US economy has also put pressure on China's exports. "The US inflation is still at a high level. In September, the US CPI rose 8.2% year on year, which was lower than the previous year, but higher than the estimated 8.1%. In particular, the core CPI reached 6.6%, which was unexpectedly high, not only significantly higher than the previous value of 6.3%, but also higher than the estimated 6.5%." Peng Bo also expressed concern about this. "The probability that the market judges that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November has risen to 99.4%, and the probability that it will raise interest rates by 150 basis points accumulatively in the two months at the end of the year is 66.7%. The increase in interest rates in the United States will last at least until the second quarter of next year, which will put greater pressure on the economic growth of the United States and also reduce the demand for Chinese goods."

"If the European and American economies are only in a slight technical recession, it is enough to maintain the previous policy strength. But now the European and American economies have been moving from a technical recession to a substantive recession, which makes the pressure on imports and exports changing. Therefore, it is still necessary to observe how the subsequent import and export performance is." Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, made such analysis.

Under the pressure of European and American economies, what is the trend of China's import and export in the fourth quarter? Peng Bo believes that China's RMB exchange rate depreciated significantly from March to October, which promoted exports to a considerable extent. However, the RMB exchange rate may slow down at the end of the year, and the momentum for expanding exports will weaken.

In Bai Ming's opinion, China's import and export can not be expected to have a significant rebound in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to see a significant dive in the fourth quarter. "I think it basically fluctuates at the current level".

Will not break away from safety tolerance

Imports and exports are under pressure in the international market, but they can still work in the domestic market. "It is powerful for export to further strengthen the supply chain management of the industrial chain and improve the efficiency in China." Peng Bo said, "In addition, if China continues to maintain a weak RMB exchange rate, it will be of great help to promote exports."

Bai Ming also pointed out that, from the external perspective, the import and export pressure in the fourth quarter is still relatively large, but China can still create new international competitive advantages by improving its product competitiveness, especially by increasing the export of high-tech and high value-added products, "including technology, services, brand, quality standards, etc., to win more markets through these non price competitiveness".

In addition to market factors, China is also exerting policy factors to help achieve the goal of maintaining stability and improving quality of foreign trade development. For example, Wang Shouwen, the International Trade Negotiator and Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce, said on September 27 that the pressure to maintain a stable growth of imports and exports is increasing, and it is necessary to introduce a new round of stable foreign trade policies to help Chinese enterprises rescue, solve difficulties and help.

On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce issued Several Policies and Measures to Support the Stable Development of Foreign Trade, proposing to ensure production and performance, support competitive products to expand the international market, require local governments to strengthen the protection of foreign trade enterprises in terms of epidemic prevention, energy use, labor, logistics, etc., and give full support when necessary to ensure timely performance and delivery of foreign trade orders. At the same time, it also proposed to actively support enterprises to participate in various exhibitions and seize orders, play the role of foreign trade innovation platform, further play the role of cross-border e-commerce in stabilizing foreign trade, improve the efficiency of port collection and distribution and domestic transportation, and ensure fast transfer of import and export goods.

"Despite the great pressure, China's various policy support for stabilizing foreign trade is also very strong. In this case, I think that the next foreign trade is basically" stable ", even if there is pressure, it will not be divorced from our safety tolerance." Bai Ming said.