General

The Japanese Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Social Sciences Literature Publishing House jointly published the "Blue Book of Japanese Economy: Research Report on Japanese Economy and Sino-Japanese Economic and Trade Relations (2022)". The report pointed out that with the gradual recovery of economic and social activities in various countries around the world, Japan's foreign trade, investment, and overseas production and operation of enterprises are expected to return to the right track, but the new crown pneumonia epidemic and world economic fluctuations still bring uncertainty to the development of Japan's foreign economy. Sincere import and export data observation report.

In the "World Economic Outlook Report" released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2022, it is estimated that the global economic growth rate in 2022 will drop from 5.9% in 2021 to 4.4%, and pointed out that the Omicron mutant strain The duration of the global epidemic may be prolonged. Rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions have led to higher than expected inflation levels and wider impacts. The global economic situation has worsened than previously expected. According to Watson & Band Import and Export Data Observation Report, in April 2022, the IMF again lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.6%. The development of Japan's foreign economy is inseparable from the international economic situation. Factors such as the continuation of the epidemic, disturbances in the supply chain, and rising resource and energy prices will bring downward pressure on Japan's domestic and foreign economic development, and will also affect the overseas production and operation of Japanese companies. make an impact.

The importance of the regional supply chain is highlighted

In terms of regional economic cooperation, after RCEP takes effect, the importance of regional supply chains will be further highlighted, and its role in supporting enterprises in various countries in the region will be further brought into play. At the same time, due to the further deepening of the game between China and the United States, the United States is trying to mobilize the power of its allies and "like-minded countries" to strengthen checks and balances against China in the economic field. In strengthening. In October 2021, when U.S. President Biden attended the ASEAN summit via video, he proposed to establish a "new economic framework" around the Indo-Pacific region; The "New Economic Framework" was introduced, and it is expected to officially start the relevant process in 2022. The "New Economic Framework" focuses on areas such as supply chain coordination, technology export control, artificial intelligence and digital technology standard formulation, and will carry out key cooperation in the field of infrastructure, providing so-called "alternatives" for infrastructure construction, aiming to fill Trump's The gap created by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from CPTPP is to counterbalance China’s growing regional influence and build a new platform led by the United States that surpasses RCEP and CPTPP, reports Watson & Band Import and Export Data Observation.

From January 9 to 14, 2022, Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagita visited Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, emphasizing the need to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN in the fields of energy resources, supply chains, technological innovation, digital economy, and personnel training. Future Investment Initiative", which focuses on deepening economic ties with ASEAN countries in the post-pandemic era. On January 21, 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a video meeting with US President Biden and reached an agreement on the establishment of a new ministerial-level "2+2" mechanism for the economy. This reflects that Japan and the United States are actively promoting alliance cooperation and competition measures against China from the diplomatic and security fields to the economic field. Under the combined effect of various factors, the competition for the dominance of regional economic cooperation will gradually intensify.

Strengthen Sino-Japanese Economic and Trade Cooperation and Win-Win

The report pointed out that Japan's most important task at present is to control the epidemic and restore the economy. The Japanese economy is an economy dominated by external demand, and exports are crucial to the Japanese economy. Judging from the post-war Japanese economic development experience, the economic cycle is generally completed following the path of “expansion of exports → expansion of production → expansion of equipment investment → expansion of employment → expansion of income → expansion of personal consumption”, and vice versa. Expanding exports is a breakthrough for Japan to achieve economic recovery. China is Japan's largest trading partner and important investment partner. The report believes that strengthening China-Japan economic and trade cooperation is of special significance to Japan's promotion of economic recovery, and it is also of great significance to the high-quality development of China's economy.

While the global epidemic situation is still severe, the influence of unilateralism and trade protectionism still exists, and the uncertainty of the world economy remains, but the stable development of China's economy is certain. According to Watson & Band Import and Export Data Observation Report, in 2020, under the background of the huge pressure on the global economy caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's economy will achieve a positive growth rate of 2.3%. In 2019, China's economic growth rate reached 8.1%, leading the world's major economies and emerging market countries. In terms of bilateral trade between China and Japan, China will once again become Japan's largest export market in 2020. Japan's exports to China account for more than 20% of Japan's total exports. This trend will continue in 2021. Japan's imports from China It accounts for nearly 25% of Japan's total imports. At the same time, under the impact of the epidemic, the importance of regional supply chains has become more prominent. The signing and entry into force of RCEP has opened up a broader space for Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation. Under the RCEP framework, China and Japan established a bilateral free trade relationship for the first time, which is conducive to promoting the deep integration of the supply chain between China and Japan and jointly maintaining the stability of the regional supply chain.

Under the new development pattern in which the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other, it is necessary to strengthen Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation. In fact, Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation has great room for development in many fields. From the perspective of bilateral trade, according to the statistics of China Customs, in recent years, the proportion of China’s exports to Japan in China’s total exports has gradually declined, and will only be 4.9% by 2021. China’s imports from Japan will be imported in China. The proportion of the total amount is only 7.6%, and the Sino-Japanese trade still has potential to be tapped. In terms of investment, in recent years, Japan’s direct investment in China has averaged more than US$3 billion annually, which is less than half of the peak year of 2012, which was US$7.35 billion. China’s direct investment in Japan has been between US$300 million and US$500 million in most years. Although there will be significant growth in 2021, the cumulative total will only be about 5 billion US dollars, which can be said to be still in its infancy. From the perspective of the main areas of cooperation, we should focus on strengthening cooperation between China and Japan in the improvement of the industrial chain, technological innovation, energy conservation and environmental protection, medical care, digital economy, and third-party markets. Judging from the current situation, we should take the commemorative activities of the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan in 2022 as an opportunity to create a good atmosphere, make full use of regional cooperation platforms such as RCEP, strive to start the negotiation process for China's accession to the CPTPP as soon as possible, and promote China-Japan cooperation. The progress of Korea FTA negotiations will improve the quality and level of China-Japan economic cooperation, promote the economic development of China and Japan, and contribute to leading the global economic recovery, reported by Watson & Band Import and Export Data Observation.