General

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, if nothing unexpected happens, the average economic growth rate in the past three years will probably fall below 5%, and this year's 5% economic growth is likely to fail. Before November, except for the export, consumption and infrastructure did not make much progress. Even the three consecutive reductions in loan interest rates did not pull up the real estate in the big infrastructure, The import and export of foreign trade supporting the economy also began to decline significantly. The data set the worst data in the past two and a half years. In dollar terms, the export fell by 8.7%, and the import fell by 10.6%. Since the import and export have obviously declined, can we rely on consumption or infrastructure to drive the economy?

First of all, we have always stressed that the economic growth must reach 5% as far as possible. This is mainly because there is a relationship between the cost of capital use and economic growth. Although the central bank has reduced the deposit reserve ratio several times to stimulate the economy, if the comprehensive average of personal credit and corporate credit is calculated, the bank's loan interest rate remains above 5%, The average interest rate of 5% represents the cost of capital use in the whole society.

If the overall growth rate of the economy is less than 5%, it can be subdivided into some specific industries. Many industries are less than 5% profit margins, and even many industries are negative profits. In this case, even if the central bank has reduced the cost of capital use for many times and released more funds to banks for credit by reducing the reserve requirement ratio, many people will not choose to borrow money from banks to start businesses and buy houses, Because everyone's income has not increased significantly, and the entrepreneurship rate may not be able to earn enough to cover bank loans, rent, water and electricity and other related costs, the so-called bank capital idling phenomenon has been caused, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported.

Secondly, according to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, the import and export of foreign trade achieved good results from January to October, while the steep decline began in November, which is mainly related to the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve and our own epidemic prevention policies. Because the U.S. economy was overheated before, which has caused inflation. If the U.S. economy is overheated as the world's largest consumer, In a certain period of time, the demand for goods will increase, and the direct or indirect increase in foreign imports will be good for China, a country that mainly manufactures goods.

In addition, the relative passive devaluation of RMB caused by the appreciation of the U.S. dollar will also stimulate foreign trade exports, because the devaluation of the local currency means that the price competitiveness of export commodities will be enhanced, but all of this began to reverse in November. With the Federal Reserve's continuous aggressive interest rate increases, the U.S. economy has begun to show a certain trend of recession, and the decline in inflation data means that demand has been restricted, However, as the Federal Reserve took an ambiguous attitude towards raising interest rates in the middle and late November, the RMB also rose significantly, and the appreciation of the RMB would suppress exports, so the export data began to become ugly, but the decline in exports was somewhat beyond everyone's expectations.

Finally, not only did exports decline by 8.7%, but imports also declined by more than 10%. This shows that domestic demand has shrunk seriously, which is one of the reasons why our foreign exchange reserves are growing again. Since foreign trade can no longer provide surprises for economic growth, then whether to drive economic growth depends on the consistent large infrastructure or weak consumption, and I personally prefer consumption, Since the marginal utility of infrastructure has decreased after decades of urbanization, it can be simply understood that the previous investment of 1 yuan to infrastructure can drive the output of 2 yuan, while the current investment of 1 yuan to infrastructure may not drive the output of 1.5 yuan. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

Consumption is really something to look forward to. Although many people have seen their income decline due to the impact of the epidemic in the past two years, it is undeniable that some consumption has been suppressed, especially the consumption of catering, tourism, cinema entertainment, etc., which has been artificially and actively interrupted. It is not entirely because of the problems of the industry itself. Therefore, consumption as a 60% weight of the economy is the next important investment direction, Although retaliatory consumption may not come, reasonable restorative consumption will certainly come, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported.