General

This was the fourth quarter of the traditional foreign trade peak season, but it encountered the embarrassing situation of "the peak season is not prosperous". According to the observation report of Huacheng import and export data, in November, the growth rate of China's foreign trade import and export was only 0.1%, falling for two consecutive months. Many foreign trade enterprises have felt the chill in the snow season due to "insufficient orders".

Influenced by weak external demand and high comparison base, the decline of foreign trade growth was expected, but it has dropped from a double-digit growth in the middle of the year to 0.1% today. The rapid rise and fall of the data still worries the market people - is it a normal callback after the continuous high operation of foreign trade, or does it mean the opening of the downlink channel? Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report:

In the decades of development of the foreign trade industry, similar situations have occurred many times. Different from the past, after the baptism of the market, China's foreign trade has established an industrial chain supply chain system with complete categories and supporting facilities. In recent years, some domestic industries have experienced order outflow and industrial relocation, but China's position in the global industrial chain supply chain pattern is still stable, and China's position as the world factory cannot be shaken in the short term.

According to the observation report on the import and export data of Huacheng, from the perspective of the scale of foreign trade, China's foreign trade operation in the first 10 months was generally stable and improved, and the total import and export volume, total export volume and total import volume reached a new high in the same period of history. Since November, the external environment faced by China's foreign trade has become more complex and severe. Uncertainty and instability factors have increased significantly. Insufficient foreign demand has become a prominent challenge. Foreign trade imports and exports are under further pressure. At the same time, the impact of a high base gradually emerged at the end of last year, and the monthly growth rate has declined significantly. To sum up, the overall trend of China's foreign trade and global economic and trade development is basically consistent.

The latest Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) also confirms the above analysis. The data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement shows that the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in November was 48.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and lower than 50% for two consecutive months, indicating that the global manufacturing industry is still under great pressure of contraction. At present, the global economy is plagued by sluggish growth, geopolitical risks, high inflation and the lack of new growth points. It is expected that the growth rate will further slow down next year, and the growth momentum of global trade will also decline.

However, the decline in the momentum of global trade does not mean that there is no business opportunity. China's foreign trade industry has grown up from the market wrestling. It is not only inherently resilient, but also good at seeking opportunities from dangers and turning them into opportunities. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, thanks to a package of stable foreign trade policies issued by the Chinese government and strong epidemic prevention and control measures, the foreign trade industry has played its advantages in the production chain supply chain under extremely difficult conditions and achieved hard won growth against the trend. Since this year, with the change of the global epidemic pattern, China's foreign trade has ended the general rise, and the industry development has shown an increasingly obvious trend of differentiation. Especially when the traditional manufacturing industry is generally faced with shrinking orders, the export of solar energy and heating equipment, industrial laser machinery, new energy vehicles and other sub sectors has accelerated.

As for the bright performance of some foreign trade market segments, some experts believe that it is not ruled out that it is affected by short-term contingencies and hot events such as the World Cup, but it is also inevitable in the long run. Especially in recent years, foreign trade enterprises have attached great importance to digital technologies and platforms and continuously improved their operational capabilities, and their sensitivity and responsiveness to sudden demand in overseas markets have also improved significantly. With reliable technology and rich experience in landing, Made in China is still expected to seize market dividends in international competition.

In addition to quick response and integration capabilities, cost performance ratio is still the "passport" for China's best-selling products in overseas markets, and also an important embodiment of China's industrial chain supply chain competitiveness. In the context of global epidemic and economic stagflation, it is an indisputable fact that consumption is weak. In this case, high cost performance has become a more important consideration for consumers, and will also be a key driver to promote the export growth of domestic consumer goods, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

Of course, the high cost performance is inseparable from the continuous improvement of China's foreign trade industry technology. At the same time, the continuous enhancement of foreign trade enterprises' performance and innovation capabilities and the continuous release of a series of stable foreign trade policy effects will help consolidate and enhance China's foreign trade position in the global value chain. It should be pointed out that the fluctuation of single month data does not change the long-term trend of foreign trade. In the face of changes in the external environment, China's foreign trade must change with the times and follow the trend. Through deeper and more vigorous opening up, we can ensure that foreign trade operates smoothly within a reasonable range and continue to provide a strong impetus for the global economic recovery. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.