General

According to the observation report of Huacheng import and export data, in recent days, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, Zhejiang, Sichuan and other provinces and cities have organized groups to "grab orders" all over the network, becoming the focus of attention of the whole society, further driving the investment enthusiasm of the secondary market.

On December 8, Internet e-commerce, cross-border e-commerce, e-commerce, free trade port and other trade theme sectors rose sharply, including Renrenle, Focus Technology and Cross border Communication, which both recorded two boards, and Ruoyechen and other concept stocks rose by the limit.

Charter flights from many places to go abroad to grab orders

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, on December 4, a "order grabbing team" consisting of relevant heads of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce and other provincial departments and enterprise representatives drove to the airport to open a 6-day European trip; Just one day later, Sichuan Provincial Department of Commerce followed suit and organized a commercial charter flight to Europe to expand the market. It included 31 foreign trade enterprises and 40 people flew to France, Germany and Italy to carry out a 9-day economic and trade promotion activity.

It can be said that since the outbreak of the epidemic, it is a very rare foreign trade activity to grab orders from the sea. But in fact, many cities have taken the first step before this incident aroused great concern.

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, as early as July this year, the business departments of Ningbo, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou and other cities in Zhejiang Province were the first to organize local foreign trade enterprises to charter flights to the sea to participate in exhibitions, negotiate and sign orders in Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other countries and regions.

Since November and December, the government and enterprise groups that "charter flights to sea for orders" have become more and more intensive, and the organizers have also expanded to more provinces and cities. In addition, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Sichuan sent overseas business groups organized at the provincial level to help enterprises go abroad to talk about business and grab orders.

It is obvious that the camp of overseas order grabbing is very strong. In the massive order grabbing tide, it not only opens up overseas business opportunities for foreign trade enterprises, but also releases the signal of "stabilizing orders and increasing confidence".

The "chill" of trade still exists, but the overall resilience is full

In retrospect, the global economy suffered a heavy blow due to the repeated epidemic and the complex international environment. As one of the "troikas" of China's economy, foreign trade also faced unprecedented pressure and challenges. With weak overseas demand, industry orders were significantly reduced.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, China's total import and export value in November was 3.7 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), a slight increase of 0.1% year on year, far from the 6.9% growth rate in October. Among them, the export was 2.1 trillion yuan, up 0.9% year on year, while the import was 1.6 trillion yuan, down 1.1%. Huacheng's import and export data observation reported.

In this regard, industry experts explained that the growth rate of foreign trade fell back in November against the background of a high base last year and a slowdown in overseas demand.

However, on the whole, since this year, China's overall foreign trade situation is still resilient. According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, in the first 11 months, China's total import and export value reached 38.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year on year. Among them, the export reached 21.84 trillion yuan, up 11.9%; Imports reached 16.5 trillion yuan, up 4.6%; The trade surplus was 5.34 trillion yuan.

In terms of commodity structure, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products, especially new energy products, grew rapidly. In the first 11 months, China exported 12.47 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 8.4%, accounting for 57.1% of the total export value. Among them, auto exports reached 363.76 billion yuan, an increase of 79.3%, with a remarkable growth rate.

Specifically, there are also outstanding highlights in trade cooperation countries. In the first 11 months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.5%, accounting for 15.4% of China's total foreign trade value, of which the year-on-year growth rate of exports was as high as 22.2%, far exceeding the overall growth rate of China's exports in the same period.

Not only that, according to Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China's economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN will be closer as the US inflation level falls back next year. It is expected that foreign demand will be significantly better than this year, and China's foreign trade will continue to grow steadily and healthily.

Of course, in addition to ASEAN, China's import and export with major trading partners such as the EU and the United States also maintained a steady growth trend. Among them, the EU is China's second largest trading partner. The total trade value in the first 11 months was 5.17 trillion yuan, up 7%, accounting for 13.5%. The United States is China's third largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, accounting for 12%.

In general, although China's trade chill has not completely dissipated, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the resumption of production and the continuous promotion of trade facilitation, China's foreign trade opportunities still exist.

How to view the investment opportunities in the second half?

From the perspective of investment opportunities in the second half, foreign trade is already on the way to grab orders and is expected to drive relevant investment opportunities.

At the beginning of November, CCPIT issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in the First Batch of Pilot Examination and Approval Projects for Overseas Economic and Trade Exhibitions, which shows that the first batch of 15 pilot examination and approval projects for overseas economic and trade exhibitions between November 2022 and February 2023 has been completed, including 13 exhibition projects and 2 self held exhibition projects, which are distributed in 8 countries, including Germany, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and involve textile, auto parts, sports goods, electronics, consumer goods and other fields.

It can be seen that most of these fields involve China's advantageous export products, which is really good for the export of relevant enterprises.

Specifically, as a necessary consumer goods, the overseas demand for textile and clothing this year is not strong in the "peak season", which has led to the pressure on the operation of domestic textile enterprises. Now, the secondary market concept index has rebounded under the stimulus of the positive industry. Since November, the textile manufacturing industry index has risen by more than 16%.

In individual stocks, Yunzhong Ma's big rise has exceeded 45%; Concept stocks such as Huali Group, Fengzhu Textile and Xinye Textile also performed well.

In terms of business layout, domestic leading enterprises in all aspects of textile industry have also promoted overseas production capacity construction. For example, the leading enterprises in yarn end, fabric end and garment end respectively include Blum Orient, Lutai A and Shenzhou International to further expand Vietnam's production capacity; Other companies, such as Weixing Co., Ltd. in the auxiliary material end and Jiansheng Group in the production of sock products, are also active in Southeast Asia.

It can be predicted that no matter the textile industry, or auto parts, sports goods, electronics, consumer goods and other industries, under the guidance of foreign trade policies, combined with the rebound in overseas demand, there may be a backlash in the future. Let's wait and see!

Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that with the gradual release of the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth, it is expected that China's foreign trade growth in the fourth quarter of this year is still expected to achieve a small increase. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.