General

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, China's economy this year is unusual.

China's economy is under pressure to take the exam because of the unprecedented changes in a century and the epidemic situation in the century. Looking at the world, the international environment is complex and severe, with high winds and waves, sluggish global economic demand and high inflation; At home, the epidemic continues to recur, and economic development faces unexpected changes and downward pressure.

In the face of difficulties and dangers, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China united and led the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups to rise to the challenge, increased macro-control efforts, steadily improved the quality of development, and maintained the overall economic and social stability.

The economy is under pressure

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, in October this year, many people expected the release of China's third quarter economic data. There is a reason for this expectation. In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew 4.8% year on year, but under the unexpected impact of the epidemic, the economic growth in the second quarter fell to 0.4%. Can China's economy withstand the pressure and reverse the downward trend?

Facts have proved that China's economy has withstood the test. In the third quarter, China's GDP grew by 3.9%, and continued to recover in October and November. Among them, major economic indicators such as industry, service industry, investment and consumption have also been continuously improved, and the overall trend of recovery and development has been maintained.

"China has stabilized the macroeconomic market and kept its economic operation within a reasonable range, which is not easy under the impact of the epidemic." Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, said.

Globally, China's economic performance is still outstanding. Among them, China's consumer prices rose moderately, in sharp contrast to the high global inflation. According to the observation report of Huacheng's import and export data, in the first 11 months of this year, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2% year on year. At the same time, in October, the euro area CPI rose 10.6% year on year, a record high. Although the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI in November was as high as 7.1%, it was the lowest since January this year. The first vice president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Gita Gopinath, said that, globally, the pressure brought by inflation is more lasting than people think. It is expected that the global overall inflation rate will reach a peak of 9.5% in 2022.

Wei Qijia, director of the Industrial Economy Research Office of the Forecast Department of the National Information Center, said that under the background of increasing uncertainty in the external environment and volatile domestic epidemic, China's economy was under pressure to move forward, continue to recover, and make progress while maintaining stability, demonstrating the resilience of large economies.

Steady improvement of development quality

On December 9, the domestic large passenger plane C919 was delivered to China Eastern Airlines. This means that China is the fourth country in the world that can independently produce large passenger aircraft after the United States, France and Russia.

The quality of China's economy has improved significantly. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first 11 months of this year, the added value of China's high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 8% year on year, 4.2 percentage points faster than that of all industries above designated size. The aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry grew 10.7%, and the electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry grew 13.5%.

While industrial upgrading is accelerating, investment in high-tech industries is also accelerating. All localities promoted the construction of major projects such as new energy and new medicine, strengthened the chain supplement and strengthening of the manufacturing industry, and strongly supported the investment in the manufacturing industry. In the first 11 months of this year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 19.9% year on year, 14.6 percentage points faster than total investment.

This can also be seen in the utilization of foreign capital in China's high-tech industries. In the first 10 months of this year, the actual use of foreign capital was 1089.8 billion yuan, up 14.4% year on year. The actual use of foreign capital in high-tech industries increased by 31.7%, including 57.2% in high-tech manufacturing and 25% in high-tech service industries.

It is noteworthy that the actual use of foreign capital in the central region and the western region increased by 33.6% and 26.9% respectively, significantly faster than that in the eastern region, most of which came from the manufacturing industry. From the source, South Korea, Germany, Britain and Japan's actual investment in China increased by 106.2%, 95.8%, 40.1% and 36.8% respectively. Huacheng's import and export data observation report.

From the perspective of the overall economy, the key industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood are in good shape. According to the data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's grain output reached a new high this year, stabilizing at more than 1.3 trillion kg for eight consecutive years. At the same time, all localities actively ensure the production and supply of energy resources. It is really rare when the world is facing an increasingly severe food and energy crisis.

In addition, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported that in the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.253 million and 6.067 million, respectively, a double year-on-year growth and a market share of 25%. At the same time, new energy vehicles have accelerated the pace of going to sea.

Guo Liyan said that this shows that China's green and low-carbon transformation is accelerating, which not only boosts economic recovery, but also injects new impetus into development. At the same time, the quality of China's economic development has improved, with obvious spillovers, which also plays a stabilizing role in the restoration of the global economic order.

In 2019, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to "ensure a reasonable growth in the quantity and a steady improvement in the quality of the economy". In 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to "promote the steady improvement of the economy in quality and reasonable growth in quantity". The report of the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China requires "to promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the quantity of the economy". Today's Chinese economy is interpreting the dialectics of quality and quantity with practical results.

The prospect of next year is promising

Looking forward to 2023, China's economy will still face severe internal and external challenges. Externally, the downside risks of the global economy increase during the interest rate hike cycle, and the uncertainty of development increases due to the counter globalization and geopolitical conflicts. Internally, the "triple pressure" of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation has not been fundamentally resolved, and the pressure on economic operation is still great.

At the beginning of December, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee stressed in its analysis of next year's economic work that we should adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, better coordinate development and security, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, and vigorously boost market confidence, We will organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply side structural reform, focus on stabilizing growth, employment and prices, effectively prevent and defuse major risks, and promote the overall improvement of economic operation.

Wei Qijia said that the central government puts stable growth first, which reflects the idea that development is the fundamental way to solve the difficulties on the way forward. With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, under the influence of various macro policies, we have reason to have full confidence in the economy in 2023.

To this end, we should continue to implement positive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, strengthen the coordination of various policies, and form a joint force to promote high-quality development. Policy implementation should also pay more attention to effectiveness and accuracy.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the central government has clearly proposed to vigorously boost market confidence and grasped the core of the problem. Market confidence will have an important impact on the effectiveness of policy implementation.

At the same time, we need to better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. The pragmatic action of optimizing epidemic prevention and control will help further stabilize expectations and reduce uncertainty caused by epidemic prevention and control. We should earnestly implement the "two unswervingly" and enhance the drive and vitality of socialist modernization. We should resolve to advance various reforms and further emancipate the institutional barriers that constrain development.

We believe that in 2023, China's economy will improve on the whole and make steady progress, making a good start for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.