General

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, affected by the imminent peak of the US dollar interest rate hike, South Korea, as one of the countries most affected by the US economic slowdown, may become the first country to change its monetary tightening policy. Asian countries such as Thailand, India, Indonesia and the Philippines will also gradually slow down the pace of interest rate increases.

According to the report of Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, according to the calculation of the Bank for International Settlements, the dollar is considered to have reached its peak after rising to the highest level since 1985. Morgan Stanley also predicted that the US dollar has peaked and will fall before 2023, which means that Asian central banks do not have to raise interest rates aggressively to support their own currencies.

Due to the slowdown of demand in major global markets, India's export trade barely grew, while its imports grew by 5.4%, which made India's trade deficit exceed 20 billion dollars for the eighth consecutive month. Bloomberg said that India's economic activity seems to be slowing down. As the tightening of global interest rates has affected demand, the global economic outlook in 2023 will be grim. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported.

According to Huacheng's import and export data observation report, Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, said that compared with European and American countries, Asian countries have relatively low inflation pressure. Therefore, from the perspective of using monetary policy to control inflation, interest rate increases need not be too strong. At present, the strength and frequency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase have changed, and the dollar index and the dollar exchange rate have shown signs of weakening. In this case, some Asian countries do not need to follow the rate increase of the Federal Reserve to adjust their monetary policies. Next, Asian countries do not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, but the range will be reduced.

Lian Ping believed that the measures taken by South Korea, Thailand and other countries to reduce interest rates would help promote the steady development of their economies. As one of China's major trading partners, the economic growth of these countries would be beneficial to China's export trade. "Although these countries may form an export competition relationship with us to some extent by adjusting their monetary policies to reduce export costs, China's current exports no longer rely mainly on low costs to obtain opportunities, but rely on technical level, product structure, product quality and a complete industrial chain. Therefore, even though these countries have improved their competitiveness in terms of export costs, China's export The export advantage is still obvious, "observed the import and export data of Huacheng.