General

The latest customs data shows that in October 2022, Vietnam exported 75300 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% compared with 83400 tons last year, and an increase of 0.2% compared with September. The export of standard rubber was 37600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4% and a month on month increase of 1.0%; The export of cigarette adhesive was 6500 tons, down 14.9% year on year and up 18.5% month on month; Latex exports reached 31000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.4% and a month on month decrease of 4.0%.

According to customs data, Vietnam exported 669100 tons of natural rubber from January to October 2022, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% over 591600 tons last year. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 382500 tons, down 0.1% year on year; The export of cigarette adhesive was 59600 tons, down 1.2% year on year; Latex exports were 224800 tons, up 54.4% year on year.

In October 2022, Vietnam exported 145200 tons of mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% over 125400 tons last year, and a month on month increase of 28.7% over 112900 tons in September. Among them, SVR3L mixed exports were 59500 tons, up 20.7% year on year and 46.7% month on month; SVR10 mixed exports reached 83600 tons, up 12.3% year on year and 20.9% month on month; The RSS3 mixed export was 2100 tons, an increase of 24.8% year on year and a decrease of 32.4% month on month.

According to customs data, Vietnam exported 935500 tons of mixed rubber from January to October 2022, up 3.3% year on year from 905800 tons last year. Among them, the mixed export of SVR3L was 259,200 tons, down 14.2% year on year; SVR10 mixed exports reached 660000 tons, up 12.1% year on year; The mixed exports of RSS 3 were 16200 tons, up 10.6% year on year.

In October 2022, Vietnam exported 31900 tons of natural rubber to China, up 111.8% year on year from 15100 tons last year, and 32.2% month on month from 24100 tons in September. The export of standard rubber was 4300 tons, up 54.0% year on year and 277.3% month on month; Cigarette adhesive exported 2300 tons, up 671.9% year on year and 152.7% month on month; Latex exports were 25400 tons, up 111.3% year on year and 14.8% month on month. According to customs data, from January to October, Vietnam exported 158200 tons of natural rubber to China, a year-on-year increase of 70.13% compared with 93000 tons last year.

In October 2022, Vietnam's hybrid rubber exports to China totaled 145100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.7% over 125400 tons last year, and a month on month increase of 28.6% over 112900 tons in September. Among them, SVR3L mixed exports were 59500 tons, up 20.7% year on year and 46.7% month on month; SVR10 mixed exports reached 83600 tons, up 12.3% year on year and 20.9% month on month; The RSS3 mixed export was 2000 tons, up 17.6% year on year and down 36.2% month on month. From January to October, Vietnam exported 934400 tons of hybrid rubber to China, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% compared with 893700 tons last year.

To sum up, customs data show that in October 2022, Vietnam exported 220500 tons of natural rubber and hybrid rubber, an increase of 5.6% over last year's 20.88; A total of 177000 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year increase of 26.0% compared with 140500 tons last year. From January to October, Vietnam exported 1.6045 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, an increase of 7.2% over last year's 1.4974 million tons; A total of 1.0926 million tons were exported to China, a year-on-year increase of 29.1% compared with 986700 tons last year.

In the first ten days of October, some production areas in Vietnam were still affected by rainfall. The supply of raw materials was tight, and the price was firm. In particular, the production of 3L glue was reduced. The factory had no sales pressure for the time being. The profit space of suppliers was limited, and they had no intention of shipping at a low price. In addition, the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate, and the domestic industry was also not interested in buying USD rubber, which inhibited Vietnam's natural rubber exports. In the last ten days, as the weather improved, the supply increase expectation was strengthened, and the worries about slowing domestic and foreign market demand were strengthened, Southeast Asian suppliers sold long-term goods at low prices, especially Vietnam's latex production profit loss, glue diversion, dry glue output increased, and the price decline expanded. The export of Vietnamese rubber to China continued to increase, supported by the rising willingness of the middle and lower reaches of the country to replenish on bargain hunting and arbitrage demand. China is still the largest export market of Vietnam's rubber, and the proportion of exports to China this month reached 80.2%.

Jin Lianchuang believes that in November, Vietnam's overall exports of natural rubber may maintain a growth trend. The main rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia will enter the peak production season. Although there are more periodic rainfall, the overall output will increase. At the same time, the phenomenon of latex shunting raw materials is reversed, which is conducive to the increase of Vietnam's 3L rubber output. The growth rate of Vietnam's rubber export is accelerated, and the export trend will also conform to the seasonal law. From the perspective of domestic Vietnam rubber inventory, although by the end of November 2022, the domestic Vietnam 3L rubber inventory is lower than the level of the same period over the years, the import is gradually increasing, and the epidemic situation in many places in China is repeated, the production of tire and product enterprises is limited, and the rigid demand is poor. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic Vietnam rubber inventory will maintain an increasing trend in the future.