General

The scope and depth of China Africa international trade cooperation are expanding. To seize the opportunities for cooperation, we need to deal with many uncertainties.

Professor Xiao Hao, Deputy Dean of the School of Economics and Trade of Hunan University and Executive Secretary General of the China Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation Research Institute, believes that the uncertainty of China Africa international trade cooperation is mainly reflected in four aspects: first, the uncertainty of policies of some African countries. Internally, political instability in some countries combined with election factors caused turbulence; Externally, the game of international trade powers brings uncertainty. The second is the weakness of the economic model. The current economic development model of Africa has not fully released its comparative advantages such as population and resources. Africa's high consumption rate has failed to drive its "internal cycle". Problems such as foreign exchange and international trade facilitation of African countries have led to many cooperation models with Africa, but the "external cycle" transaction costs are high. Third, they are not familiar with the local culture, laws and policies in the cooperation, and the knowledge blind spots bring uncertainty. The fourth is the vulnerability of the impact of the big country game.

In this context, it is necessary to reduce uncertainty from comparative advantage on the basis of risk identification.

In this regard, Xiao Hao suggested that we should identify and prevent risks more clearly, be good at summarizing the rules from the "gray rhino" events with high probability and risk, and make a response mechanism to the "black swan" events with low probability and high risk. It is necessary to establish deterministic thinking, and look for the big context and certainty from the complementary advantages and the general trend. The uncertainty can be reduced from four aspects: deepening China Africa political relations and enhancing political mutual trust; Model optimization: find new opportunities, explore new models and find new growth points from the "double cycle" pattern of African countries; Get sufficient information to enhance the all-round understanding of both parties; Enhance the stickiness of China Africa cooperation by relying on digital economy, digital trade, technical trade (such as second-hand car trade), etc.