General

According to customs data, in the first 11 months of 2022, the total amount of import and export goods in Vietnam has reached 673.8 billion US dollars, up 11.8% year on year. Among them, the total amount of export commodities was about 342.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.4%; Imports were about 331.6 billion US dollars, up 10.1%.

After a significant dive in 2021, the foreign trade surplus reached a breakthrough of US $10 billion again - reaching US $10.6 billion in the first 11 months of this year alone. It is estimated that in 2022, it will exceed US $11 billion, but it will still be lower than the peak in 2020.

The total value of Vietnam's imports and exports has exceeded 700 billion US dollars

In December, Vietnam's total foreign trade volume continued to climb - it had reached a breakthrough of US $700 billion in the middle of December, reaching a new high. Vietnamese media believe that this is a milestone event, which fully demonstrates the vitality and development potential of Vietnam's economy.

According to the report, since Vietnam started its economic and social reform in 1995, its foreign trade has undergone a strong transformation and upgrading - gradually implementing multilateral and diversified foreign and industrial development policies, striving for trade, investment, integration and receiving technology and industrial transfer cooperation.

Superimposed by the rapid development of information technology, the process of global integration and other factors, Vietnam's foreign commodities show a strong pace, conquering several peaks in succession, and breaking record milestones several times - in 2007, the total import and export value broke the 100 billion dollar mark for the first time.

According to customs data, just four years later - in 2011, the total amount of imports and exports doubled, reaching the level of 200 billion US dollars; In 2015, the total amount of import and export goods in Vietnam exceeded the US $300 billion mark; In the middle of December 2017, the total amount of imports and exports reached 400 billion US dollars.

According to the customs data, in the second half of December 2019, the total amount of Vietnam's foreign import and export goods exceeded the US $500 billion mark; In November 2021, a breakthrough of 600 billion US dollars will be achieved; By the end of 2022, a breakthrough of 700 billion dollars has been achieved - from one peak to another.

Since 2019, Vietnam's total foreign trade volume has suppressed Thailand and Malaysia, ranking second among ASEAN countries, second only to Singapore; In 2021, Vietnam's total amount of import and export trade will rank among the top 20 in world trade for the first time.

Vietnam's foreign trade has both advantages and disadvantages

According to the data released by the Vietnamese authorities, Vietnam's foreign commodity trade has indeed made remarkable achievements, which is worth congratulating. But on the back of the bright data, there is also a bit of worry. First of all, when the total foreign trade reached new highs in succession, the trade surplus was lower than that in 2020.

According to customs data, Vietnam's foreign trade surplus will approach 20 billion US dollars in 2020. The total foreign trade volume in that year will be less than 550 billion US dollars, and this year will definitely exceed 700 billion US dollars. However, the foreign trade surplus is estimated to be only about $11 billion, a decrease of more than $8 billion, and the earning capacity has declined.

Secondly, Vietnam's industrial upgrading seems to be lower than expected, still dominated by clothing, footwear, electronic components, etc. Although the production of smart phones has been strengthened, the size is not enough, and the performance of local enterprises is not awesome - the proportion of imports and exports of foreign-funded enterprises has expanded to about 70% in the first 11 months of this year.

According to customs data, Vietnam's foreign trade surplus in the first 11 months of this year was about US $10.6 billion. Among them, the trade surplus created by foreign enterprises was as high as 38.5 billion US dollars, while the deficit created by Vietnamese local enterprises (domestic capital) was "27.9 billion US dollars" - in Vietnam, it was foreign capital that really made a lot of money.

The market of small and medium-sized economies should not be too open, and some space should be left for the growth of local enterprises. Otherwise, it is possible to repeat the mistakes of Türkiye, Argentina and other countries - after the sudden change of the external environment, foreign capital will come and go in a hurry. To forge iron, one needs to be hard.

Third, under the background that the technological and innovative competitiveness of local enterprises has not yet achieved a great breakthrough, Vietnam's labor cost advantage has begun to lose. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) once issued a report that Vietnam will soon lose its advantage of cheap labor.

Japanese experts believe that Vietnam's high-quality labor force is decreasing while its wages are rising, which will cause "Vietnam to lose the advantage of cheap labor in labor-intensive and low skilled sectors". It is also recommended that Vietnam strengthen skills education and training services to improve labor and industrial productivity.