General

According to the observation of Huacheng's import and export data, recently, many foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth in 2023. The reporter noted that the keywords mentioned most in the forecast are "rebound" and "promotion". Based on the optimism of China's economic recovery, foreign capital has actively increased its position since November 2022.

In 2023, whether the external environment or a series of positive signals released recently at home, it seems that China's economy is expected to "revive with full blood".

Foreign capital is optimistic about China's economic growth trend

Goldman Sachs recently raised its forecast of China's economic growth in 2023 from 4.5% to 5.2%. Its research department believes that the consumer sector is expected to become the highlight of China's economic growth in 2023. Morgan Stanley also raised its outlook on China's economy in 2023, predicting that consumption will lead the recovery of China's economy in 2023, especially in the second half of the year. With the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, after a short period of pain, the travel and life of Chinese residents will basically return to normal from the second quarter of 2023. It is estimated that the annual GDP growth will recover to 5%, much better than 3% in 2022.

"The investment opportunities in China in 2023 cannot be ignored." Luo Di, director of UBS Asset Management (Shanghai) and asset allocation fund manager, pointed out in his market outlook that in China, infrastructure investment is the main focus for stable growth this year. As China further optimizes its epidemic prevention and real estate related policies, the fiscal policy is expected to maintain the intensity of fiscal expenditure, and the monetary policy has room and possibility to further strengthen. The focus may shift more to economic growth, boosting consumption, investment and market confidence.

The sense of capital has always been sensitive, and it always flows to the market with the most potential and opportunities. Since November 2022, there has been a massive return of funds from the north. In 2022, the accumulated net inflow of funds from the north will be RMB 90.02 billion. As of January 4, the net flow of capital from the north has exceeded 3 billion yuan, with A-share shares making a good start in the new year.

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, the steady and positive trend of China's economy has also attracted global enterprises to invest and expand business in China. The recent survey conducted by CCPIT on more than 160 foreign-funded enterprises and foreign business associations in China shows that 99.4% of the foreign-funded enterprises interviewed are more confident about China's economic development prospects in 2023, 98.7% of the foreign-funded enterprises interviewed say they will maintain and expand their investment in China, 89.8% of the foreign-funded enterprises interviewed say they will maintain their industrial chain in China, and 10.2% of the foreign-funded enterprises plan to transfer their foreign industrial chain to China.

A strong rebound is expected in the second quarter

Looking forward to 2023, the interviewed experts are generally confident in China's economy. They believe that with the adjustment and optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the recent increase of a series of economic stabilization policies, the economic growth is expected to rebound strongly from the second quarter of 2023, and consumption and investment will play a more significant role in stimulating and supporting the economy. The annual economic growth may be 4.5%~5.0%, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

"In the past year, the world economy has suffered an unexpected impact, which has surprised the market. But after passing the 'shock wave' of the epidemic, the external certainty of China's economy will increase in 2023." Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, told the International Business Daily that China adheres to reform and opening up, especially the intensive diplomatic activities of major countries since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, It further demonstrates China's determination to firmly promote multilateralism and economic globalization, and releases a positive signal to the international community, which indicates that the external certainty facing China's economy is rising in the future.

From the perspective of China's economy, the Central Economic Work Conference has made a comprehensive and systematic deployment of economic work in 2023. Policies in many dimensions, such as finance, currency, industry, science and technology, society, real estate, and platform economy, will work together to bring more hope and support to the economic recovery in 2023, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

Xu Hongcai predicted that China's economy would rebound from the second quarter, and the annual GDP growth might reach about 4.7%. In terms of structure, foreign demand may fall back, leading to a decline in the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth, which needs to be compensated by investment and consumption in a timely manner. Urbanization, industrial upgrading and digital economy, dividend of reform and opening up, silver economy, talent dividend and other aspects can further tap the potential. It is worth expecting that China's economy will enter the normal development track in 2023.

Experts generally believe that consumption will become an important driving force leading China's economic recovery in 2023. Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, said that with the adjustment and optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the introduction of the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035), consumer demand will increase significantly. The accumulated "excess savings" and pent up consumption will be significantly improved, which will jointly support the obvious repair of consumption demand and thus provide endogenous impetus for economic growth. At the same time, with the improvement of residents' expectations on employment and income, some upgraded commodities, such as new energy vehicles, smart phones, green smart appliances, will enter the window period of large-scale upgrading, and consumer demand will be further released, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported.