General

In 2022, China's foreign trade withstood heavy pressure and achieved stable growth. Analysts here believe that although there will be more challenges next year, China's long tested foreign trade is expected to remain stable and improve, driving the overall economic recovery.

At present, the overall operation of China's foreign trade is stable. According to Chinese customs data, China's total import and export value in the first 11 months was 38.34 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year on year. According to the customs data, the export was 21.84 trillion yuan, up 11.9% year on year; Imports reached 16.5 trillion yuan, up 4.6%; The trade surplus expanded by 42.8%. According to customs data, the scale of China's foreign trade has reached a new record this year, and there is little doubt.

This performance is also quite impressive compared with other major economies in the world. Japan has had a trade deficit for 16 consecutive months, of which the trade deficit in November hit a new high in the same period of nearly a decade; South Korea's trade deficit has set a new record this year.

But China's foreign trade is not free from worries. Due to weak external demand, customs data show that the year-on-year growth rate of China's imports and exports in a single month has declined for four consecutive months, and the traditional peak foreign trade season in the fourth quarter does not seem to be "booming". In 2023, the downturn in foreign demand will bring greater challenges to China's foreign trade.

According to customs data, the global economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2023, and there is a 25% probability that the growth rate will be less than 2%. According to the judgment of IMF President Georgieva, at least one third of countries will fall into economic recession next year. The OECD forecast is more pessimistic, believing that the global economic growth may be only 2.2% next year.

In addition, according to the report of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of global commodity trade may grow by only 1% in 2023, far less than the 3.4% previously predicted, which will aggravate the risk of global economic recession. The WTO pointed out that the previous trade expectation for 2023 seemed "too optimistic", because now the energy price is soaring, the inflation scope is wider, and the crisis in Ukraine shows no signs of weakening.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment and president of the research institute, believes that the growth prospects of major economies such as Europe and the United States are bleak, which means that the total amount of overseas demand will decline next year. Superimposed by the fact that inflation in Europe and the United States is still at a high level, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, and the accelerated adjustment of the global industrial chain and supply chain, China's exports will face greater pressure next year.

Bai Ming, the deputy director of the Institute of International Market Research of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the China News Agency that, in the context of the overall contraction of foreign demand, the competition for "cake sharing" in the international market will become increasingly fierce next year. China must seize the time to strengthen efforts to stabilize foreign trade, so as to win the first opportunity and avoid a significant decline in the growth rate of foreign trade.

Action has begun. After Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other major foreign trade provinces organized foreign trade enterprises to go to Europe, Japan and other places to "grab orders", many local and industry associations in China have taken action to facilitate enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions and conduct business negotiations. Some fast moving enterprises have tasted the benefits. For example, during the International Sporting Goods Exhibition in Munich, Germany, more than 50 enterprises participating in the exhibition signed orders worth about 18 million euros, and the amount of intended orders was about 35 million euros.

Wei Jianguo, the former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that private enterprises have been tested by the market, most of them are experienced, responsive and innovative. Private enterprises seize the opportunity to go to sea to "grab orders", which will provide strong support for China's stable foreign trade.

At the macro level, as the "wind vane" of China's economic policy next year, the Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago has made it clear that greater efforts should be made to promote the stability of the scale and structure of foreign trade. Analysts believe that this indicates that a series of stable foreign trade policies aimed at fully stimulating enterprise vitality, reducing enterprise burden and promoting market diversification will be introduced one after another.

Wei Jianguo said that China's foreign trade will continue to grow steadily next year and make contributions to China's economy as the effects of various policies continue to be released and the enthusiasm of foreign trade enterprises and the spirit of daring to do things are fully mobilized.