General

Although the trade between China and the United States has always been close, more than one third of the container imports from the United States come from China. Customs data show that the United States' imports from China are declining rapidly. In October, China's exports to the United States fell 12.6% year on year. In addition to the reduced demand caused by the epidemic, the economic outlook of the United States has also brought great uncertainty.

According to customs data, the export volume was 2.07 trillion yuan, up 7.0% year on year (10% year on year in September), lower than the expected value of 12.7%. It can be seen that the export data in October not only declined, but also fell below market expectations. If denominated in US dollars, the export volume in October was 298.37 billion US dollars, down 0.3%, the first negative growth in China since 2020.

According to the customs data, it is worth noting that China's export growth to ASEAN and Russia in October was generally maintained at a high level, but the export growth to several developed countries was further reduced, which is also one of the main reasons for dragging down the export data in October.

Although the holiday shopping season in the United States is coming, China's exports to the United States in October fell 12.6% year on year to $47 billion, down 11.6% year on year in September, which has been a negative growth for two consecutive months. According to customs data, China's main exports to the United States, such as mobile phones, clothing, toys and furniture, declined last month. According to customs data, the export of toys, games and sports products fell 36% to US $2.56 billion, while the export of furniture and bedding fell 23% to US $2.73 billion.

This is mainly the result of the Federal Reserve's radical interest rate increase. In the past two years, developed countries have been printing money to stimulate the economy, and residents have also accumulated a certain amount of savings during this period. However, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate increase, the American economy has shown signs of recession, the purchasing power of American households has continued to decline, and the consumer goods boom has turned to depression after the recovery of the epidemic.

Will the recent downward trend continue? From the export data of China and the import data of the United States, it may or may not be temporary.

First of all, this round of interest rate hikes in the United States has begun to slow down, and the most violent stage of interest rate hikes has passed. All the weakening inflation data indicate that at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in December, the rate of interest rate increase is likely to slow down to 50 basis points, which will weaken the recession pressure in the United States.

More importantly, retailers will welcome more challenging holiday sales. A year ago, due to the transportation delay caused by the supply chain, consumers have already had the idea of shopping early, and many supermarkets are also facing the challenge of increasing inventory, so imports may grow rapidly. However, after experiencing the impact of the epidemic and rising prices, consumers are spending less on clothing and electronic products, which is a negative factor for China's exports.

In the words of the head of the American Retail Federation, Americans are eager to spend this holiday, but they have become more cautious.