General

Although the trade between China and the United States has always been relatively close, more than one third of the container imports from the United States are from China. Customs data show that the import of the United States from China is declining rapidly. In October, China's exports to the United States fell 12.6% year-on-year. In addition to the reduction in demand caused by the epidemic, the sluggish economic outlook of the United States has also brought great uncertainty.

Customs data showed that the export volume was 2.07 trillion yuan, up 7.0% year on year (up 10% year on year in September), lower than the expected value of 12.7%. It can be seen that the export data in October not only declined, but also fell below market expectations. If measured in US dollars, the export volume in October was 298.37 billion US dollars, down 0.3%, the first negative growth in China since 2020.

According to customs data, it is noteworthy that China's export growth rate to ASEAN and Russia in October remained relatively high, but the growth rate of exports to many developed countries declined further, which is also one of the main reasons for dragging down the export data in October.

Although the holiday shopping season in the United States is approaching, China's exports to the United States fell 12.6% year-on-year to $47 billion in October, and fell 11.6% year-on-year in September, with negative growth for two consecutive months. According to customs data, China's major exports to the United States, such as mobile phones, clothing, toys and furniture, fell last month. Customs data showed that the export of toys, games and sports products fell 36% to US $2.56 billion, while the export of furniture and bedding products fell 23% to US $2.73 billion.

This is mainly the result of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increase. In the past two years of the epidemic, developed countries have been printing money to stimulate the economy, and residents have accumulated some savings during this period. However, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate increase, the U.S. economy showed signs of recession, the purchasing power of American households continued to decline, and the consumer goods boom after the recovery of the epidemic also turned to depression.

Will the recent downward trend continue? From the export data of China and the import data of the United States, it may or may not be temporary.

First of all, this round of interest rate hikes in the United States has begun to slow down, and the most violent stage of interest rate hikes has passed. All the weak inflation data indicate that at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in December, the rate of interest rate increase is likely to slow to 50 basis points, which will weaken the recession pressure of the United States.

More importantly, retailers will face more challenging holiday sales. A year ago, due to the transportation delay caused by the supply chain, consumers had the idea of early shopping, and many supermarkets were also faced with the challenge of increasing inventory, so the import might grow rapidly. However, after experiencing the impact of the epidemic and rising prices, consumers are spending less on clothing and electronic products, which is a negative factor for China's exports.

In the words of the head of the American Retail Federation, Americans are eager to spend during this holiday, but have become more cautious.