General

It has become the same choice for international institutions to predict China's economic growth in the near future.

At present, China is working hard to improve its economic performance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutions have raised their expectations of China's economic growth, believing that China's economy will rebound this year. A series of high-frequency data also reflect that China's economic operation is improving. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

China's economic boom has rebounded significantly

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a message on February 7, saying that China's economy will rebound this year with the rise of personnel flow and economic activity after the lifting of epidemic prevention and control measures, which will bring impetus to the global economy.

The plan of the year is spring. After the Spring Festival, all localities have actively implemented policies and issued policies to stabilize growth in succession, striving to speed up the resumption of work and sprint for a "good start".

Some leading indicators of China's economy have rebounded. According to the observation report of Huacheng Import and Export Data, in January, the manufacturing purchasing manager index, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1%, 54.4% and 52.9% respectively, which were 3.1, 12.8 and 10.3 percentage points higher than the previous month. The three indexes all rose to the expansion range, and China's economic prosperity level rose significantly.

Yang Daoling, director of the Big Data Analysis Division of the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center, told China New Finance and Economics that in terms of the resumption of work and production, the subway passenger flow and the urban on-the-job rate rose rapidly. The subway passenger flow heat index based on the subway passenger flow data of 18 cities across the country shows that the index continued to recover in January, with more than 100 points for several consecutive days, especially after the Spring Festival, the index rose rapidly, reaching 124.8 points at the end of January, the highest since this year, 63.1 points higher than last month, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

Yang Daoling pointed out that the indicator of workplace on-the-job rate in 80 large and medium-sized cities across the country based on the daily interactive company traffic data also showed that with the acceleration of resumption of work and production after the holiday, the on-the-job rate at the end of January increased by 14.3 percentage points from the low point during the epidemic last December. Various data show that all localities are working hard to promote the resumption of work, go all out to fight the economy, and welcome the new start of economic development this year with full vitality.

International institutions have raised China's economic growth expectations

Han Wenxiu, deputy director in charge of daily work of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, said recently that China's economy has strong resilience, great potential and sufficient vitality. The fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed, and the conditions of resource elements can be supported. According to comprehensive research and judgment, the growth rate of the world economy may decline significantly in 2023, while China's economy is expected to rebound in general and form an independent upward trajectory.

The world economy in 2023 is indeed cloudy. The Global Economic Outlook report released by the World Bank at the beginning of the year lowered the global economic growth forecast to 1.7% in 2023, and said that the global economy is "dangerously close to the level of recession".

On the one hand, the world economy looks bad, but on the other hand, for the Chinese economy, international institutions have raised their growth expectations one after another.

In the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook Report, the International Monetary Fund sharply raised China's economic growth forecast this year from 4.4% to 5.2%, and Huacheng's import and export data observation report.

In addition, Morgan Stanley increased from 5% to 5.7%, and Goldman Sachs Group increased from 4.5% to 5.5%. Goldman Sachs Group believes that the current market recovery in China is not only the recovery of consumption and service trade, but also the "recovery of growth across many industries and with a broader basis".

The latest issue of the World Bank's China Economic Briefing believes that with the deterioration of global demand growth, the total demand structure of the Chinese economy is expected to gradually shift to domestic demand. With the improvement of consumer confidence and the release of consumer demand, China's consumption will gradually recover; Continued infrastructure investment expenditure and investor sentiment will also promote the recovery of investment growth.

"This is good news for China and the world"

"According to our latest forecast, China's economy will grow by 5.2% this year, compared with 3% last year. This is good news for China and the world - it is expected that China's economy will contribute to global growth by a quarter this year," the International Monetary Fund said in a statement.

Pierre Olivier Gulansha, the chief economist of the IMF, believes that China's contribution to global economic growth in 2023 will far exceed that of the United States and the European Union.

"China's macro economy is improving again, and the Chinese people and the Chinese economy are showing strong resilience, which is admired by everyone." Angela Kober, president of Merck China, told Sino-Singapore Finance and Economics that 2023 is expected to become the year of "sailing and strong recovery" of China's economy.

Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, told China New Finance and Economics that a series of measures to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence were accelerated, and enterprises and local governments were bold to act and act. 2023 will be a year of vitality for micro entities, constant stimulation of new economic momentum, continuous optimization of the structure, and steady improvement of the overall economic development quality.

Haibo, the representative of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in China, told the media that China has a very large market and is constantly promoting openness and cooperation. The international community is also looking forward to the strong development momentum of China's economy. China's economic growth will play a "stabilizer" role in the world and regional economic growth.