Gifts / Sports & Toys

Now everything can be blind boxes, blind boxes for takeaways, blind boxes for air tickets, blind boxes for snacks, etc. are springing up like bamboo shoots after a rain. Why is the blind box economy so hot? What psychology of the user does it use? What marketing methods does it have? What are the risks and development opportunities? The author of this article will analyze the blind box economy from six aspects and share with you.

As Bubble Mart began to vigorously develop the trendy blind box in 2016, the blind box model began to penetrate into various commercial fields.

Looking back at 2020 and 2021, major food companies have successively launched blind box gift boxes, and later, travel platforms have rushed to sell blind boxes for air tickets. Why are companies so keen on the blind box model? What makes consumers so fascinated by small blind boxes? What are the classifications of blind boxes? What is the possible future direction of blind box development?

This article will start from the origin of the blind box, describe the psychological principles, classification and marketing methods of the blind box, analyze the potential risks of the blind box economy, and make some suggestions for the future development of the blind box model.

1

Origin and development

The blind box originated in Japan in the late Meiji period.

In order to clean up inventory, Japanese department stores often launch lucky bags on holidays. The bags contain various products of different values. The cumulative price of their combined products is greater than the price of a lucky bag, which triggers consumers to buy because of the "benefit".

In the 1980s, some Japanese companies brought the "uncertainty" marketing idea of the lucky bag to the "gashapon".

Unlike the daily necessities of the lucky bag, the capsules are mostly related to the second element. Because of the uncertainty before buying, the surprise of obtaining hidden models, and the desire to gather the whole set of peripherals, they are deeply loved by the second element fans. , The focus of its purchase has shifted from "benefit" to "collection."

In the 1990s, the "collection card" blind box economy was born. Various snacks such as crisp noodles were added to the food bag to guide buyers to purchase goods and collect cards.

After 2016, blind box marketing has gradually become a hot topic. Bubble Mart has launched a large number of blind box products, and the form of "fashion play + blind box sales" has gradually been accepted by the public.

Bubble Mart Blind Box (data from Chinese and foreign toy network)

Some experienced blind box players even spend tens of thousands of yuan a year to buy blind boxes. In addition to "collecting", the main motivation for buying also adds factors such as "show off", "relaxation", "fashion", and "investment".

With the development of the blind box economy, blind boxes are not limited to categories such as daily necessities, toys, stationery, and other areas. Take-out and travel products are also beginning to try to use the blind box marketing model to earn more traffic and income.

2

Viewing the Blind Box Economy from the Perspective of Psychology

1. Attention bias: product availability

Attentional bias refers to the fact that people’s perceptions are affected by repeated cognition. When a consumer frequently sees a business’s advertisements, news, and products, he/she is more likely to make a purchase decision.

The blind box economy uses this concept.

Take Bubble Mart as an example. Through both online and offline channels, it makes its products more likely to be exposed to the public's vision and makes people feel urge to consume.

Offline, Bubble Mart has increased the exposure and accessibility of products by installing unmanned vending machines, pop-up stores and self-operated stores in major shopping malls. When consumers repeatedly see these products for the first time, they will have more There is a high probability of buying with an early adopter mentality.

Online, in addition to selling products on e-commerce platforms such as Tmall and JD.com, Bubble Mart also opened an online box drawer mini program to make blind boxes more easily displayed to consumers through diversified and gamified methods. In front of them, so that they have attention bias and purchase behavior.

2. Difficulty in choice: not sure about your needs

Difficulty in choosing is a symptom in which people are not sure of their inner needs, feel fear when faced with too many choices, and spend a lot of time and energy to choose things.

Nowadays, people’s lives are getting faster and faster. In their daily consumption, people desire to make shopping without brains and simplify the process. This is why many shopping platforms are optimizing their algorithms and recommending their favorites to customers the fastest through data analysis. Products, reduce customer decision-making time, thereby increasing customer satisfaction.

The blind box is a solution to the difficulty of choice.

Take Chaowan Blind Box as an example. Customers only need to choose one box among the 12 boxes, and all the details are given to "luck", which reduces the time for customers to make decisions, and the consumption process is fast and simple, as if they are unlucky. Some of them have helped them make a choice.

The "no-brain" step also reduces the possibility of consumers canceling consumption because of thinking, thereby motivating more customers to consume.

3. Social identification: herd mentality

Social identity is composed of three basic processes: categorization, identification and comparison.

One of the criteria for people to judge right from wrong is to look at what others think, especially when they want to decide what is the right behavior; people will work hard to get the identity of the group they think they belong to, and imitate other people in the group. Action is also a herd mentality.

Many people are relatively unfamiliar with blind boxes at first, but when their social circles slowly start to become popular for such products, when blind boxes become a trend and are recognized by many people, people tend to buy blind boxes based on the herd mentality. It is the correct action of the group to which it belongs, eager to be recognized by the group, so as to conduct consumption behavior.

In addition, the "comparison" process of social identification is also an important reason why blind boxes are more addictive.

In order to gain social respect, people will compare with others. When they draw a hidden blind box, by comparing with those who did not draw, they will be spiritually happy, which gives consumers a constant purchase of blind boxes and desire to get them. The power of hidden models.

4. The principle of scarcity + the psychology of showing off

The scarcity principle means that the less opportunities, content, or products, the greater its value. Consumers will increase their desire for a product due to the influence of the principle of scarcity when making purchase decisions.

The psychology of showing off means that when people acquire a scarce product, they will gain a sense of pride in comparison with other people in the group, and gain social recognition and honor.

In the blind box economy, because you don't know what is inside the blind box before opening the blind box, and each series has hidden models, the chance of winning the hidden models is less than 1%, which increases the scarcity of blind boxes.

The "rare" hidden models have huge room for appreciation. On Xianyu, a hidden bubble mat sells for hundreds or even thousands of yuan, which has a very high appreciation, which increases the value of the blind box. , And if you win the blind box, you can receive the envy and admiration of blind box lovers, which satisfies the psychological pride of consumers.

In summary, the blind box urges consumers to make continuous purchases through the potential huge appreciation space and spiritual satisfaction.

5. Diderot effect

The "Diderot effect" was proposed by French philosophers as the "increasing insufficiency effect", that is, the mentality is very stable when something is not obtained, but when it is obtained, it becomes more and more dissatisfied.

And this psychology just applies to the blind box economy. Many people who have never consumed toy blind boxes think that blind boxes are "IQ tax". They don't understand why many people are obsessed with it. Once consumers buy a blind box, they often There will be a "matching psychology", keep buying blind boxes of the same series, and want to collect all sets, so as to achieve a psychological balance and a sense of pleasure.

Chaowan Blind Box captures this psychological characteristic of consumers, and through continuous co-branding of different series of products, consumers will never be able to “collect” the speed of catching up with the speed of “new” and continue to consume.

6. Cognitive Bias: The Gambler's Psychology

Cognitive bias refers to the phenomenon that when people perceive themselves, others or the external environment, their perception results are often distorted due to their own or situational reasons.

In the cognitive bias theory, there is a concept called "sunk cost effect", that is, when people have paid an unrecoverable cost for a thing, including time, money and energy, they often take irrational decisions and continue the original investment. , And even increase the frequency of investment; the reason is that people do not want to lose the original cost, and there is a fluke mentality, always believing that their expectations can come.

The blind box economy uses this cleverly.

When people buy a blind box but do not offer the goods they want, they will be based on the fact that they have already spent so much money, but still have not collected their favorite goods; giving up is equivalent to wasting the money and energy spent in front of it. Psychology, coupled with the cognition that constantly strengthens the hint that you can get the blind box you like, so you can buy the blind box again.

3

Existing blind box classification

According to the price of blind boxes and the audience level, the blind boxes currently on the market are roughly divided into the following categories:

For categories with high audiences, currently few rely on joint activities and IP to form core selling points, and their core selling points are still focused on the product itself, rather than emotional factors; for categories with low audiences, I prefer Attract customers through activities such as IP and co-branding, and promote customers' willingness to purchase.

This is related to the customer's motivation to purchase the product.

At present, the blind box products with a wide audience on the market, the main reason customers buy them is because of "affordable", "high cost performance" and "just need"; and the aesthetics of the product and the story behind it are important to the customer's purchase decision. , Is just a secondary factor. The main purpose of merchants selling these products is to clean up inventory, sell small profits but increase sales, or attract traffic.

Blind box products with lower audiences prefer to use IP to attract customers who are interested in this IP and build the ability to empathize with customers; customers buy them based on feelings, trends or likes, and their emotional value is greater than practical. Significantly, product premiums are higher and profit margins are higher.

Due to the difference in purchasing motivation, in the dimension of audience, products with higher audiences pay more attention to practicality, while products with lower audiences are more to guide customers to make spiritual consumption.

4

Marketing play

1. Increase exposure: omni-channel sales

Bubble Mart, the number one player in the blind box economy, uses an online and offline omni-channel sales method.

Online, all major e-commerce platforms can see the flagship store of Bubble Mart; while offline, it adopts self-operated stores + pop-up stores + unmanned vending machines to actively deploy channels in major shopping malls in first- and second-tier cities , So that people can see the blind box series products all the time, increasing product exposure, and the laying of channels also makes it easier for people to buy blind boxes, and further promotes consumers' buying behavior.

2. Increase topic level: cross-industry joint name + IP promotion

The typical blind box gameplay is to adopt a cross-border co-branding model, add familiar IP elements to the product design, and enter groups interested in this IP with the "feelings" brand, which broadens the audience of the product and increases The degree of topic and attention of the brand.

However, the choice of joint IP is also a science. It is not the hot IP that is suitable for cooperation. It is necessary to consider whether the IP and the product have commonality, and whether the image of the IP is consistent with the image created by the brand.

On December 30, 2019, Laiyifen launched the New Year Nut Gift Box, and adopted the blind box gameplay, and cooperated with the national trend brand "Dong Lai Ye" to promote consumer purchases through exquisite packaging with a taste of the year. want.

Dismantling this cross-border co-branding event, we can find some ideas for brand co-branding:

First, consider whether the main consumer characteristics of IP and brand overlap. The people who like "Dong Lai Ye" are mostly Gen Z who are interested in the national trend, and the people who like to buy New Year gift boxes are mostly concentrated in Gen Z. Because the target customers overlap, it will be more effective to drive potential. Of consumers make purchasing decisions;

Second, consider the commonalities between IP and products. Lai Yifen wants to launch a New Year gift box, so the festive and auspicious "Dong Lai Ye" is just in line with the meaning of the gift box;

Third, consider the commonalities between cooperative IP and brands. Both "Dong Lai Ye" and Lai Yi Fen belong to Chinese brands. Especially on traditional festivals such as New Year's Day, using common Chinese characteristics to conduct marketing activities is bound to get twice the result with half the effort;

Fourth, consider whether this IP caters to the trend. The main consumers of Blind Box are the post-95s. They pay attention to trends, like things with a sense of freshness, and like to be on the forefront of fashion. IP in line with the current main trends can stimulate them to consume more, and the main trend of the country’s “east” "Lai Ye" is just in line with the current trend, so it is suitable for joint names.

3. Increase addiction: the game is fun

The difference between blind box products and other products is that the products are game-like when they are sold. When the buyer opens the blind box, it is just like opening a Pandora's box. The mystery and the unknown give the customer a brand new Consumer experience, shopping gamification, give customers a sense of satisfaction at the spiritual level.

With the development of the blind box, there are more and more new ways to play the blind box: such as the "shake and shake" prompt form of the online blind box machine; also like the form of co-branding with other brands and buying a product randomly to get a product ( Such as the joint activities of Bubble Mart, Hollyland and Haagen-Dazs); there are also forms to expand the characteristics of the product and increase the uniqueness of the product, such as the "Archaeological Blind Box" launched by the Henan Museum. Consumers need to use Luoyang The shovel performs "digging" to obtain the model of the antiquities in the blind box. The box opening mode is highly related to the "antiquities" characteristics of the product.

The fun shopping experience makes consumers willing to bear a premium far higher than the value of the product itself, and the pleasure gained at the spiritual level increases the repurchase rate of the product.

From the perspective of the current development trend of the blind box economy, a shopping gamification form that combines the characteristics of the product itself and considers the consumer's use scene will make the product more unique and win consumers from the increasingly competitive blind box. Favorite.

4. Increase desire: set hidden models

A major feature of the blind box is that each series has a hidden model with a very small chance of winning. Based on the principle of "scarce is expensive", brands often use this as a selling point in marketing to conduct hunger marketing and increase The customer's expectation of the product, thus making multiple purchases.

5. Increase sociality: create a social APP

Different from other types of products, blind box products with lower audiences are highly social. Just like the "social identification—herd psychology" that analyzes consumer psychology, the trendy blind box consumers buy a large number of blind boxes. The motivation is to be recognized by the group.

In combination with consumers’ psychology, Bubble Mart has created the blind box social app "Paqu". Consumers can not only obtain the latest information about their favorite designers, but also communicate with other consumers and share their blind box experience. , To meet the social needs of consumers, so that consumers are more enthusiastic about the blind box culture, disguised increase customer stickiness.

5

Potential risks of the blind box economy

1. It is difficult to maintain the freshness of the product continuously, and the competition of homogeneous products intensifies

With the development of Chaowan Blind Box, new players continue to enter the market. At present, the more well-known blind box brands include Bubble Mart, Jiumu Sundries Society, 52TOYS, Twelve Dong Culture and many other companies. Market share is constantly challenged by competitors.

The profit model of Chaowan Blind Box mainly relies on the continuous launch of new series of products for sales, but the frequency of new products also needs to be considered.

At the consumer level, the speed of introducing new products too fast may cause dissatisfaction among senior consumers, who believe that companies are over-consuming IP and have a deep sense of loss due to the difficulty of collecting complete sets of boxes. Consumers may feel bored—— Chaowan Blind Box is an industry in which spiritual consumption is greater than physical consumption, and it has to pay attention to the psychological feelings of consumers.

As far as the product level is concerned, too fast a new speed cannot guarantee the design sense of the blind box, and it is difficult to guarantee quality control.

However, in the face of the increasingly fierce track and the pressure of profitability, companies are eager to quickly launch new products to drive sales.

The dilemma and increased competitiveness are also reflected in the company

On the net profit margin:

In 2020, Bubble Mart’s net profit margin has fallen from 26.8% in 2019 to 20.85%. It can be seen that the market environment of Chaowan Blind Box is changing rapidly and competition is intensifying.

2. The hidden upper part of the blind box model has potential legal risks

At the social level, the blind box is not well received. Many people condemn the blind box as an IQ tax for young people.

In early 2021, the China Consumers Association reminded operators to abide by the code of conduct when selling blind boxes, and consumers should purchase blind boxes rationally. Then, in April and May, the China Consumers Association once again reminded to be cautious when buying blind boxes for air tickets. And named and criticized the marketing form of blind pet boxes that violated public order and good customs.

Therefore, when conducting blind box marketing, it is necessary to balance profitability and morality, and customers cannot blindly make money, otherwise the potential legal risks may cause the company to fall into a moral and legal crisis.

3. For products with a wide audience and high prices, it is difficult to make a profit and the model cannot be sustained for a long time.

For the niche blind box, the product has a higher premium and substantial profits.

But for products with high prices and a wide audience, the existing blind box format is more like a seller providing buyers an opportunity to squeeze wool, through the "blind box + low price" form to increase the topic of activity and platform In terms of traffic, merchants use self-sticking costs to pull new platforms, which is inherently difficult to form a long-term sustainable profit model.

Moreover, the value of the traffic obtained through this model is not necessarily very high. Most people participate just with the mentality of joining in the fun. Whether it can finally reach the new customers, most of them are target customers, and the goal of converting them into active users is still a huge goal. The unknown.

6

Development, prospects and recommendations

With regard to the development prospects of the blind box economy, the trendy toys and hand-made toys with a lower audience already have a certain scale; this time we are mainly discussing categories with a higher audience. How to apply box economy to these categories.

For categories with relatively low prices, the main purpose of customers buying these products is still "cost-effectiveness" or "practicality." "IP" or joint names may create premium opportunities for products, but the premium is far less than that of hand-made, trendy and other products.

For these brands, the blind box model is a good way to rejuvenate the brand, and it is also a way to increase product exposure and topicality when launching new products. The author believes that these markets may need to pay attention to these points in the future:

1) Segment the market, understand the characteristics of your target customers, and choose the appropriate IP or brand co-branding for marketing activities

For low-priced blind box products with a wider audience, although the premium value that IP can give is limited, these surprises are indeed opportunities to increase brand exposure and increase customer repurchase rates. Brands should understand the characteristics of their target customers , Through the selection of IP and brands related to their preferences for joint names to create momentum for the product popularity.

2) Innovate blind box gameplay and expand the application field of blind box

In recent years, the blind box model has also been continuously innovated.

There is a new way to play with Fanta’s co-branded Bubble Mart gift box: a box of 11 cans of soda and a blind box of trendy play are covered by the cardboard of the box. Consumers not only need to guess which cardboard will be a blind box, but get the blind box. After that, there will be another unpacking experience, which can be described as the quadratic form of the blind box.

There are also those that combine the fan economy: Luckin Coffee launched the form of buying a antler cup to smoke Liu Haoran's Q version of the blind box, and Wangwang went out of the snack circle and launched the form of the blind box around snacks-"I want to pinch" series.

The blind box economic model should not be limited to only buying a product. Randomly get a toy box or buy a lucky bag in the form of a cookie-cutter method that will be tired of consumers, and the homogeneity will be serious. It loses the concept of using a blind box to increase freshness. The original intention of the sense.

Brands should combine the characteristics of the products, the use of innovative blind boxes in their products, explore the possible expansion of the industry range, and differentiate from the marketing models of other competitors, so as to leave a deeper impression on the public.

3) Focus on product quality, keep in mind that blind boxes are only an auxiliary marketing strategy, do not put the cart before the horse

For products with a wide audience, users seldom purchase products with “I-Power”; the blind box is only an auxiliary means if it is costly. Without good quality support, sales cannot be promoted. Users pay more attention to practicability. The tolerance is less.

Therefore, the brand should focus on the product itself, and don't put the cart before the horse.

For categories with higher prices, the main purpose of the blind box economy is to attract traffic and convert these traffic into active users. Then how to activate these traffic is their core issue.

The author has the following suggestions:

① Innovate the mode of buying blind boxes, giving customers more power to choose.

High unknowns are the main feature of blind boxes, although to a certain extent, it alleviates customers' difficulty in choosing and increases the degree of customer expectations.

However, the higher the price of the product, the more rational people will consume it. This also causes the public to be reluctant to consume blind boxes among high-priced products, because when they get products they don’t like, they lose more than low-value products. The large, risk-averse feature makes people cautious about the blind box model.

This also explains why the current high-priced "travel" blind box products can only be purchased at ultra-low prices-because when they are not in the "high price" range, people take less risks and are not burdened. The decision-making power is handed over to the "blind box."

Based on the cautious attitude of consumers, when the blind box products are incorporated into high-priced products, part of the right to choose can be given to the customer, and part of the right to choose to "randomness".

For example, in the "ticket blind box", the destinations can be classified according to regions (East China, South China, Central China, Southwest, etc.), or according to the attributes of tourist locations (such as "Islands" and "Ancient Towns" "Prosperous cities" etc.), or other dimensions, allowing consumers to choose the categories they want to go to, and then randomly select destination air tickets from these categories, so that customers can be more assured of the right to choose Blind boxes increase product satisfaction and reduce the "blind box risks" they need to bear.

② Normalize the blind box form, appropriately increase the price of the blind box, present the opportunity for active users to draw the blind box, and revitalize the traffic.

Nowadays, the blind boxes of high-priced products are more of an attempt on specific holidays, and they cannot be operated in a normal manner like the tide play. Most of the platforms that sell these blind boxes focus on “blind boxes” to attract traffic.

However, as mentioned in the previous article, it is difficult for many consumers to become active users after the event is over. Even if more new users are added due to the blind box event in a certain period, the value of these users is not high.

In the HOOK model, users need certain incentives to make long-term investments. In the later operation of the platform, you can consider using a point system to give active users the opportunity to draw blind boxes, thereby encouraging new users to become active users.

In addition, in the normalized blind box model, the product can still be sold at a price lower than the normal price, but it is not suitable to sell the product at a price lower than the cost, resulting in a situation of "losing money and earning praise".

③Bundled sales and one-stop service create more profit opportunities.

The current high-priced blind boxes are mainly based on the seller's own pockets, or in the form of very low profits, using "blood earning" as a gimmick to attract consumers to purchase.

However, such a loss-making/low-profit model is certainly not long-lasting, and the operation risk that the enterprise bears is also large. It is difficult to say whether it can achieve the expected goal of marketing activities after paying high costs.

The feature of the blind box is to let consumers give the right to choose randomly. Consumers do not want to spend too much time on product selection. Just like the selling point of the blind box ticket-"come on a walk-and-go trip", there is The characteristics of giving users less time to think about.

Then companies need to grasp this feature, help consumers make decisions through "randomness", consider the use scenarios of blind box products, and extend the industry chain so that blind boxes not only sell one product, but also complementary products can be combined into blind boxes. , Which not only allows consumers to enjoy one-stop service without thinking, but also increases the opportunities for sellers to make profits.

For example, in the blind box of air tickets, consumers buy air tickets for travel, then when they arrive at the destination, accommodation, eating, and play are also issues that need to be considered. For example, if the "air ticket + hotel" category or "air ticket + catering" category is introduced , "Air tickets + souvenirs" category and other blind boxes, then through a more comprehensive one-stop service combination, for platforms and businesses to win more potential profit opportunities.

Through the combination of "low-priced unsalable products + high-priced hot products", the unsalable inventory is emptied, and there are more profit opportunities due to bundling sales.

It should be noted that the bundling mode requires higher product synergy-how to ensure that the products are perfectly combined into a blind box, which puts forward requirements for the coordination ability of the enterprise.