Gifts / Sports & Toys

In recent years, the industry has paid attention to the rapid upward trend of toy consumption among older children (12+). However, Rory Partis, Director UK Toys & EuroToys NPD of NPD Group's UK and European branch, wrote in a recent article that the inertia of people's attention to hot growth points has caused the industry to ignore some potential problems - for example, in the total market Under the circumstance of little change, the increase in the consumption of older children's toys means that the consumption of children's toys shrinks.

Big children vs children: one or the other?

In the past five years, the older children group has been one of the most obvious areas of toy consumption growth in the UK, with the number of toys consumed increasing by 11 million. At the same time, the number of toys for children (ages 0-11) fell by 68 million. The toy consumption of children under the age of 12 accounts for about three-quarters of the overall toy market in the UK, so the reduction in the consumption of this group will have a more profound impact on the UK toy market.

What is the current situation of children's toy consumption?

Taking the UK data as an example, the number of children's toy consumption in 2021 will drop by 17% compared with 2017, that is, the reduction in consumption is about 500 million pounds. 2%. why is that?

Toys for children aged 0-11 in the UK accounted for about 79% of the total UK toys in 2017. By 2021, this figure will drop to about 71%, and the rest will be occupied by toys for children aged 12+. If the child group is subdivided into two groups, 0-5 years old and 6-11 years old, the toy consumption of both groups has decreased compared with 2017. Among them, the 0-5 year old group is more obvious, and it is self-contained. It has been declining year by year since 2017, and every category of toys is no exception, which can be seen as a long-term trend. In terms of categories, Infant/Toddler/Preschool has shrunk the most, with sales falling by £150 million from 2017 to 2021.

The infant/preschool category is the most important consumer toy category for the 0-5 year old group, and it is also one of the most important categories in the entire UK toy market, accounting for about 16% of the UK toy market in 2021. However, in 2021 this broad category will fall three times as fast as the entire UK toy market. From 2017 to 2021, two-thirds of the decline in the UK toy market has come from the infant/preschool category.

What are the factors that will affect children's toys in the future?

The No. 1 factor is undoubtedly the declining fertility level. The number of births in the UK has dropped by 100,000 since 2017. Although there is a brief recovery in the middle, the overall trend is still down.

Next is the issue of environmentally friendly materials. Among children’s toys, the share of wooden toys will rise from 9% in 2018 to 12% in 2021. Now more and more children's toys will add some environmental protection elements more or less. Wonder if sales of such toys will increase in 2022?

Let's take a look at the hot topic - authorization. In 2021, licensed toys of all ages account for 28% of the UK toy market, up 3% from 2020. However, the proportion of authorization in the infant/preschool category is not as high as the overall level, only 22%, and sales will decline slightly in 2021. Although there are star IPs such as CoComelon and Bluey, the sales of related baby/preschool toys have also increased, but the proportion of authorized toys consumed by the 0-5 year old group is relatively low.

According to the NPD Group, UK toy market sales will be £3.2 billion in 2021, down 3% from 2020 and up 2% from 2019. Under the circumstance that the market size has not changed much, the increase in the consumption of toys by the older children is gratifying, but it cannot be ignored that behind the growth, the consumption of the children is shrinking, and it takes two efforts to make the cake bigger.