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Global gold jewellery demand may weaken

2022-08-11

According to the Spanish website reported on August 7, many industries felt the economic slowdown, including the gold jewelry industry. Despite a 4% increase in global gold jewellery consumption to 453 tonnes in the second quarter of this year, the World Gold Council's forecast has shifted from believing that gold jewellery demand will be "steady" in 2022 to expecting a "soft" trend in the second half of the year. Going into 2022, gold futures prices have fallen more than 4%.

The World Gold Council analyzed macroeconomic factors that could negatively impact gold jewelry demand, particularly aggressive tightening of monetary policy, changes in consumer disposable income and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the World Gold Council also highlighted the obstacles faced by two major markets, China and India.

In China’s case, the Covid-19 pandemic and the current pressure on the country’s real estate sector have dampened demand for gold jewellery in the country. Chinese demand for gold jewellery fell 29% to 103 tonnes in the second quarter of this year. However, the World Gold Council believes that factors such as measures to stimulate consumption and the arrival of the wedding season will provide some "oxygen" for gold demand.

Weddings and festivals are the reasons why demand for gold in India rose 49% in the second quarter of this year. Despite the good data, the country's gold jewellery industry is facing the impact of measures taken by the Modi government to prevent further depreciation of the country's currency. Specifically, there are concerns that import duties on gold will increase further. India's gold import duty has risen 4.25 percentage points this month to 18.45%, according to Business Insider.

However, the World Gold Council also sees an opportunity for gold to continue to be a safe-haven asset. In its latest report, the agency raised its outlook for global central bank demand, predicting that its level of net gold purchases this year will be similar to 2021, with the potential for an increase.


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