According to customs data, since the second quarter of 2022, the financial indicators of the Russian Timber Company have declined steadily by 13-16% every quarter and returned to the level of three years ago. According to customs data, the total revenue of Russian timber companies will decrease by 8-10% to 2 trillion rubles in 2022. In terms of deforestation, timber harvesting in almost all regions has declined.
According to the customs data, the preliminary statistical data of timber cutting volume in 2022 shows that it will decrease by at least 15% year on year, by about 20-30 million cubic meters, and the total cutting volume will fall to 190-200 million cubic meters, that is, to the level of 2013-2014. The most difficult logging situation is in the northwest region. Local forest enterprises have always focused on selling to Europe, and cannot export since the second half of 2022. The decline of logging in the northwest of Russia will accelerate in the second half of 2022, which will be greater than expected, and is expected to decrease by 20%.
For most of 2022, the imbalance between supply and demand in the Russian log market continued to exist for most of the year. The supply of logs exceeded the demand, and the demand of wood processing plants decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic prices in Russia. According to customs data, in terms of sawn timber, Russian sawn timber production began to decline from March 2022. By the end of 2022, the rate of decline had reached double digits, with a year-on-year decrease of 18-20%. It is estimated that the production of sawn timber will decrease by 11% in 2022.
The capacity utilization rate of Russian sawmill in 2022 was 71% - 73%, 3-7 percentage points lower than that in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, the price of sawn timber in Russia's domestic market decreased by 17% compared with 2021, reaching an annual average of 15600 rubles (excluding VAT), but still significantly higher than the previous periods: 23% higher than 2020, 29% higher than 2019, and 36% higher than 2018. In 2022, Russia's timber exports fell by 22% year-on-year to 23.5 million cubic meters. This is the lowest level since 2014-2015. China remains the main trading partner of Russian timber exporters, accounting for 61% of exports.
In terms of wood-based panels, according to customs data, the production of wood-based panels in Russia fell by 15% in 2022 (including plywood, veneer, particleboard, OSB, MDF/HDF/fiberboard). The decline in production exceeded that in 2020, when extensive restrictions and blockades were imposed due to the spread of coronavirus. The most affected part is the plywood market, which relies on the European market for 30% of its exports. In 2022, the output of plywood will decrease by 27% year-on-year, that of particleboard by 6.3% year-on-year, that of OSB by 22% year-on-year, and that of MDF/HDF/fiberboard by 11% year-on-year.