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By 2019, China has imported nearly 100million cubic meters of RWE (log equivalent) softwood logs and timber to meet the growing demand for forest products in the domestic market. Since then, timber consumption has declined, and the import volume of forest products in international trade has dropped to a level not seen in more than a decade.

International Timber Resources Corporation reported that China imported about 12million cubic meters of logs and timber (RWE) in the first quarter of 2023, almost half of the peak in the third quarter of 2020, and the second lowest quarterly international trade import volume in a decade.

According to the world bank, China's economy suffered a heavy blow during the Xinguan epidemic. The GDP growth rate is expected to drop to 3% in 2022, while the average annual growth rate from 1978 to 2021 is 9%. It is expected that the economy will rebound to a growth rate of slightly higher than 5% in 2023.

The main reason for the sharp decline in China's log imports is the insufficient supply after Russia implemented the log export ban in January 2022.

Russia has been the largest supplier of logs to China until New Zealand surpassed it in 2012. Since then, Russian shipments have continued to decline, falling to zero in 2022. As the supply of logs from Russia, Australia, Canada and the United States has declined significantly in the past five years, New Zealand and Europe have become the two major supply regions of China.

In the first four months of 2023, New Zealand accounted for 58% of China's total international log imports, followed by Germany (14%), Poland (5%), the United States (5%), Canada (4%) and Japan (4%).

The outlook for shipments in North America and Europe will decline, eventually making New Zealand the only remaining major log supplier. Therefore, China needs to find opportunities to increase the international trade import of timber rather than logs to meet the future demand for timber.