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1. Log output

From the perspective of global supply, log output is in a state of volatility, supply is unstable, and the month-on-month growth rate shows a trend of volatility and decline. New logs tend to be produced and consumed domestically, and the security of supply in the international log market is generally low. The output and export volume of sawn timber continue to grow every year. Although the increase rate fluctuates, the rate of change is smaller than that of logs. The export output elasticity is always greater than 1 and there is a growing trend. It shows that although countries have reduced the export of logs to a certain extent, their export restrictions on sawn timber are relatively low. Therefore, the supply security of sawn timber in the international market is generally slightly higher than that of logs.

Due to the small amount of forestry resources in China and the low per capita resource occupation, coupled with the impact of environmental protection policies, China’s log output has been fluctuating since it exceeded 30,000 cubic meters in 2012, but the overall output has remained stable until 2020. China's annual log output was 31.362 million tons. As foreign countries gradually reduce log exports, it is possible that in the future, China will gradually loosen restrictions on log output.

2. Log imports

There are not many countries in the world that import large amounts of logs, mainly Finland, Sweden, Austria, Germany (Germany has very little timber imports in the past two years due to forest pests) and China. Europe mainly imports pulpwood, while my country's imports are mainly industrial logs, accounting for more than 40% of global log imports. my country is a major importer and consumer market for logs, and the log trade has no major competitors.

According to data, China's log imports in 2020 will be 59.75 million cubic meters. From January to May of 2021, China's log imports will be 25.64 million cubic meters, and the import value will be US$4.135 billion. The large export of pest logs from Europe has temporarily changed the supply pattern of my country's log market. my country's reduced log imports from Russia and Australia in the next two years can be compensated by imports from Europe, but the opportunity period will not be long.

In 2020, my country's main sources of imported logs are New Zealand, Germany and Russia, and their imports account for 27.15%, 17.66% and 10.61% of the total imports respectively. Compared with 2019, the proportion of logs imported from New Zealand and Russia fell by 2.50 and 2.02 percentage points, respectively, and the proportion of logs imported from Germany rose by 10.57 percentage points.

Related report: "China's log market development prospect forecast and investment strategy consulting report for 2021-2026" issued by Huajing Industry Research Institute

3. Current status of global timber

Since 2011, timber imports have shown an increasing trend, and both logs and sawn timber imports have shown an increasing trend. In 2019, the import volume of timber, logs and sawn timber all reached the maximum, and timber was 128.73 million cubic meters. In 2020, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, China's timber imports fell to 108.01 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16%.

Compared with 2019, in 2020, the proportion of my country's log and sawn timber imports will decrease to 39.77% and 36.18% respectively; the proportion of wood furniture imports will drop by 6.44% to 4.31%. The proportion of imports of other wood products increased by 14.01% to 19.74%.

Fourth, the development trend of the log industry

1. Strengthen the development of overseas forest resources and improve the stability of timber supply

The security of log supply in the international market is low, and the security of sawn timber supply is slightly higher. The main reason is that countries around the world have introduced log export restrictions to encourage domestic wood processing. Therefore, it is necessary to break the traditional import trade method, adopt a variety of methods to obtain overseas timber resources, take advantage of the situation, such as building overseas forest resource cultivation bases, timber processing parks, etc., strengthen economic and trade exchanges with countries rich in forest resources, and improve enterprises' overseas forest management Standardize, rationally harvest and utilize international timber resources, and establish long-term and stable cooperative relations, not only to meet the rigid demand of China's timber imports, but also to ensure the sustainability of foreign forestry investment projects. The state should increase the country's research work on the development of forest resources, track the development and utilization of its forest resources, master its forestry development strategy, forest resource development cooperation methods, trade development trends, and evaluate the feasibility of investment and the security of supply.

2. Adjust the sources of timber imports and reduce dependence on countries with high-risk sources of timber imports

China's main log import source countries have low supply security and high import risks. Among the main source countries of sawn timber imports, there are also countries with low supply security. Therefore, by adjusting the timber import structure, reduce dependence on high-risk countries for import sources. China should continue to maintain or steadily expand log imports from countries with stable supply, such as New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Solomon Islands, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, and Germany, and actively expand log imports from countries with increasing supply, such as Uruguay, Japan, and Nigeria, and reduce the amount of log imports. Russia, the United States, Papua New Guinea, France, and Latvia rely on log imports from countries with reduced supply, and further expand the markets of countries with high log export potentials such as the Czech Republic, Norway and Brazil.

China should continue to maintain sawn timber imports from stable supply countries such as Canada, Sweden, Chile, Gabon and Cameroon, and expand sawn timber imports from Russia, Thailand, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Brazil and Ukraine to supply growth countries, especially Brazil , Thailand and Malaysia, reduce the import dependence of sawn timber on countries with reduced supply of the United States, Vietnam, Indonesia, Romania, New Zealand and the Philippines, and expand the markets of countries with high export potential such as France, Japan and Latvia. Through a series of import adjustments, we will optimize the structure of timber imports and improve the safety of timber imports.