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The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index BHI was 169.80 in October, up 31.17 points from the previous month and 59.03 points year-on-year. October sales of building materials and home furnishing stores above designated size were 143.541 billion yuan, up 22.54% month-on-month and 55.40% year-on-year; cumulative sales from January to October 2021 were 929.497 billion yuan, up 56.39% year-on-year.

u3000u3000 The industry research department of China Building Materials Circulation Association interpreted the BHI data of this issue: In October, the traditional peak season of the national home building materials market continued to deepen, and the industry performed well. BHI continued to rise after the "Golden Nine", apparently becoming the highest point of the year.u3000u3000

u3000u3000 The specific analysis is as follows:

u3000u3000In the real estate market, in October, under the background of the gradual effect of real estate regulation and control policies, the national real estate market's popularity dropped significantly, and the overall cooling trend continued. From the perspective of the performance of the new housing market, during the National Day in October, some real estate companies used various promotional activities to speed up sales collection and accelerate sales, but the effect was limited. The growth rate has further narrowed, and the overall transaction volume of the property market has declined.

According to data from China Index Research Institute, in October 2021, the average price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 16,189 yuan per square meter, an increase of 0.09% month-on-month, and the rate of increase narrowed by 0.05 percentage points from the previous month; a year-on-year increase of 3.08%, a larger increase It narrowed by 0.32 percentage points last month.

u3000u3000 In the second-hand housing market, due to the continuous tightening of credit and the continuous increase of central and local control policies, the second-hand housing market has cooled significantly. In October, the price of second-hand housing in Baicheng fell for the first time this year, and the year-on-year increase was significantly narrower than the previous month. The data shows that in October, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities across the country was 16,026 yuan per square meter, down 0.04% month-on-month, up 4.04% year-on-year, and the rate of increase narrowed by 0.34 percentage points from the previous month.

u3000u3000*BHI and national housing climate index comparison chart from January 2020 to October 2021

u3000u3000 The national building materials and home furnishing market has a certain degree of lag due to the influence of the real estate market. In October, the overall peak season of the national building materials and home furnishing market was highlighted, and the sales of BHI and above-scale building and home furnishing stores reached new highs during the year.

And from Figure 1, the BHI and the national real estate climate index have once again formed a "scissors gap", and its diametrically opposite trend also reflects the influence of changes in the real estate market, the building materials and home furnishing market has gradually transitioned from the past incremental market competition to the stock market. Market competition, the market share dominated by refurbishment of stock houses (secondary, third, etc.) and improved demand is gradually expanding.

u3000u3000 From the perspective of BHI sub-indexes, the sub-index that drove BHI's sharp rise this month is the "popularity index", which rose by 137.12 points from the previous month and 200.75 points from the same period last year. The sharp return of market sentiment is mainly due to the combined effects of the following reasons: First, under the background of orderly epidemic prevention, the role of holidays in stimulating domestic demand continues to expand. The 11th Shopping Festival extended the warm-up period to October 20 for the first time. Many companies prepared in advance to gain more traffic and sales growth; third, as the consumption upgrade trend became increasingly prominent, some building materials and home furnishing stores, especially leading companies The effectiveness of building an experiential home furnishing commercial complex and integrating online and offline development has been shown, and consumer stickiness has increased.

u3000u3000 The sub-index that fell the most this month was the "Manager Confidence Index". This leading index fell 48.78 points from the previous month and rose 1.15 points from the same period last year. The price increase of bulk commodities and raw materials has been gradually transmitted to the sales terminal. If the decoration price increases too fast, it may have an impact on consumption enthusiasm, which will counteract the growth of the market; and later with the arrival of severe cold weather, the market has entered the traditional off-season for consumption, superimposing the real estate market Stable cooling and other factors, the market expectation to fall is reasonable. Moreover, since October 17, a new round of the epidemic has spread across the country at multiple points, which will inhibit the mobility of decoration workers. It is expected that the market will be under greater downward pressure in the later period.

u3000u3000 The purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in October released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 49.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing boom has weakened. In the current complex and ever-changing macroeconomic environment, it is recommended that companies make overall plans and actively lead changes in consumption trends such as building materials and home safety, health care, environmental protection, green, and intelligence, and drive the industry to move towards high-quality home services.