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According to the observation report of Huacheng import and export data, at the beginning of the epidemic, stimulated by the increased demand for reconstruction by Americans trapped at home and the sharp increase in housing sales in the suburbs, timber prices rose sharply and pushed up US housing prices.

In sharp contrast to the real estate boom at that time, with the Federal Reserve's radical "water harvesting", the US housing market began to cool down, and timber prices fell sharply.

On Tuesday, Chicago timber futures closed at 432 US dollars/1000 board feet, down about 1/3 from a year ago and 70% from the peak in March. At present, the timber price has dropped to the lowest level in more than two years, indicating that the US housing market is rapidly cooling down. The latest data shows that the house price in the 20 cities of S&P Case Shiller fell 0.44% month on month, the first decline since March 2012.

According to the observation report of Huacheng import and export data, the framework composite index tracking timber sales dropped to $520, a drop of more than 60% compared with the beginning of March. Since the Federal Reserve has been committed to reducing inflation and cooling the overheated housing market, timber has been the leader in the decline of commodity prices.

At present, the borrowing cost of the real estate market has soared. Last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage loan interest rate averaged 6.29%, the highest level since October 2008. This has led to the deterioration of the housing affordability of Americans, a sharp slowdown in housing sales, and a sharp decline in the U.S. new housing operating rate, according to the observation of Huacheng import and export data.

According to the data of the United States Census Bureau, the construction rate of new houses in the United States fell by about 13% in August compared with April, when residential construction activities reached the highest level in more than a decade. In addition, the construction permit in August is also declining steadily, hitting a new low since June 2020.

The American Association of Home Builders said that the confidence index of builders fell for the ninth consecutive month in September, reaching the pessimistic level since the epidemic blockade in 2020 and the collapse of the housing market in 2008. Industry experts pointed out that the timber industry is facing a certain degree of recession.

According to the observation report of Huacheng Import and Export Data, Paul Jannke, the timber director of the US Forest Economic Consulting Company, said that as the demand for housing construction and reconstruction returned to normal after the epidemic boom, his company's timber consumption is expected to decline by 2.5% this year and 4.5% in 2023.

Despite the sharp decline in consumption, Jannke and other analysts expect that the price of wood will be much higher than the previous downturn of $200 per thousand board feet, which is estimated to be about $200. This is mainly due to the record low dealer inventory and rising factory costs. It is observed that the import and export data of Huacheng.